2026年亚洲新兴市场股票展望 November 18, 2025 05:12 AM GMT 风云未定，稳中求胜 我们建议在2026年采取紧贴基准指数的市场风险敞口，相对 新兴市场我们略微偏好日本。通过我们的全球新兴市场、亚 太地区（不含日本）、中国、日本以及主题焦点名单进行选 股，有助于在持续的宏观不确定性中获取超额收益。 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment deci ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported normalized FFO per share of $0.88 for Q3 2025, representing a 10% year-over-year increase [28] - Total company same store cash NOI increased by 8%, driven by a 16% growth in SHOP [28][11] - The company expects year-over-year growth of 9% in normalized FFO per share and 7.5% total company same store cash NOI at the midpoint of improved guidance [12][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The SHOP same store portfolio delivered 16% NOI growth year-over-year, with U.S. communities leading at 19% growth [17] - The Outpatient Medical and Research (OMAR) business reported same store cash NOI growth of 3.7% year-over-year, with outpatient medical occupancy improving to 90.6% [28] - The research business, representing 8% of NOI, saw a decrease in same store cash NOI due to lower rents on certain tenants [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. senior housing market is experiencing strong demand, with the over-80 population expected to grow by 28% over the next five years, while supply remains at record lows [10] - The company has closed $2.2 billion in senior housing acquisitions year-to-date, with a robust pipeline of investment opportunities [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its private pay senior housing business, with a goal of closing $2.5 billion in investments during 2025 [8][12] - The strategy emphasizes organic growth in the SHOP business and leveraging favorable demographic trends in senior housing [9][10] - The company has transitioned 27 of 45 senior housing communities from triple net to SHOP, expecting significant occupancy and NOI upside [13][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to capitalize on the growing demand for senior housing, with a strong focus on enhancing the SHOP portfolio [9][16] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the fourth quarter, driven by robust demand and occupancy growth [57] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with operators to ensure high-quality service delivery [20] Other Important Information - The company has improved its leverage, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 times, reflecting a full turn improvement from the previous year [29] - The company has over $4 billion in liquidity, supporting growth and financial flexibility [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the underwriting criteria and potential for lower initial yield requirements? - Management indicated a willingness to be ambitious in growing the senior housing business and is open to acquiring properties with higher growth potential, even if initial yields are lower [34][36] Question: What is the target leverage and how does the company weigh equity and debt for growth? - Management confirmed a strategy of organic growth combined with equity-funded investments, emphasizing the importance of investing in the best assets [39][40] Question: Can you provide updates on the Brookdale SHOP transitions and the planned CapEx? - Management detailed that the transitions are progressing well, with a focus on routine refreshes and minimal disruption to current results [44][46] Question: How does the company view the potential for margin expansion as occupancy increases? - Management noted that as occupancy exceeds 90%, incremental margins could increase significantly, driven by operating leverage and pricing power [48][49] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding potential expansion into the U.K.? - Management stated that while the U.K. is of interest, the primary focus remains on expanding the private pay senior housing business in the U.S. [60] Question: How does the company assess new operator relationships and their fit within the Ventas platform? - Management emphasized the importance of strong operator relationships and the ability to leverage data and analytics to drive performance [118]