特朗普政府上台后对日本汽车加码关税，起初是27.5%，后来叠加到50%，直接戳中日本经济命脉。 日本高市早苗首相团队赶紧组团去华盛顿谈，承诺多买美国天然气和玉米，还说愿意多掏驻军费。 可美方只给些含糊的"考虑暂停"，日本汽车出口占GDP近两成，对美份额三成，这损失扛不。 结果，中国取消中日韩文化部长会议，重启日本海鲜禁令，还劝公民别去日本旅游。东京大使飞北京求和，但没突破。 谈判一轮轮崩，日本政府内部有人提议动用手里万亿美债当武器，抛售点给美国添堵。 法政大学教授白鸟浩在媒体访谈里直戳痛点，他说日本得学中国那样，面对美国关税威胁时站得稳，别一味退让只会换来更多欺凌。 白鸟浩研究国际博弈多年。他点明，这场关税争端让日本看清，美国的"盟友情"经不起利益考验。 中国在中美关税博弈里的表现，给日本上了一课。美方对华电动车和芯片加高税，中国商务部快速回击，列出对等清单，针对美农产品和飞机部件。 稀土出口管制升级，要求申报用途，美国军工产业吃紧，F-35生产线差点卡壳。中国不慌，通过一带一路拓市场，出口结构优化。 白鸟浩在访谈中赞许，中国用资源优势转化影响力，欧洲国家像德国转向亚洲合作，对华贸易额超对美。 日本看明白这道 ...

December 11, 2025 11:29 AM GMT 亚洲经济 为何中国会扩大在全球制造业 出口中的领先优势 尽管全球存在贸易摩擦、保护主义以及G20经济体推行产业政 策，鉴于中国在先进制造领域的优势以及在电动车、电池、 机器人等高增长新兴领域的主导地位，我们预计到2030年中 国在全球的出口市场份额将从目前的15%提升至16.5%。 中国在全球制造业中占据主导：中国占全球口的15%，占全球制造业GDP 的28%，并且根据中国海关数据，与225个经济体中的177个保持商品贸易顺差。这 种主导地位在微观层面更为明显。2019-24年，在全球增长最快的15个口细⮇领 域中，中国在其中11个领域的口增长超过全球平均水平。 M Asia Pacific Insight Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Chetan Ahya 亚洲首席经济学家 Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ 甘永康 亚洲经济学家 Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com ...

马克龙刚从中国飞回巴黎，脚还没站稳，就对着媒体放出一通话。 他语气急切，说欧洲工业正处在生死边缘，需要中国投资、需要中国技术，甚至直接喊出"请帮帮我们"。 但紧接着话锋一转，警告意味十足——如果中欧贸易失衡问题不解决，欧盟可能会跟进美国，对中国商品加征关税。 表面看，这番话似乎合情合理，既承认困境，又保留底线。 可细究起来，这根本不是求援，而是一场精心包装的权力索回。 欧洲确实在焦虑：能源价格高企，工厂外迁，创新停滞，这些都不是新问题。 但把所有症结归咎于中国，把产业衰退说成是被"中国倾销"扼杀的结果，这分明是在转移内部矛盾。 马克龙反复强调货物贸易逆差，却对另一面避而不谈——欧盟在服务贸易上对中国长期顺差，在华运营的欧洲企业每年赚取数千亿欧元利润。 这就像一个商人天天抱怨进货成本太高，却闭口不提自己靠品牌溢价和渠道控制赚得盆满钵满。 所谓"中国用低价产品杀死欧洲客户"的说法，逻辑上根本站不住脚。 全球市场本就是自由选择，客户之所以买中国货，是因为产品有竞争力，交付快，迭代迅速，售后响应及时。 当欧洲某些传统工业品在性价比和更新节奏上全面落后，市场自然会用脚投票。 把这种市场自发选择的结果，硬说成是中国"不公 ...

Summary of the 2026 Asia EM Equity Outlook Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Asia Emerging Markets (EM) equity outlook for 2026, with a particular emphasis on Japan and other emerging markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Strategy for 2026**: The company recommends maintaining a market risk exposure closely aligned with benchmark indices, with a slight preference for Japan over other emerging markets. This strategy aims to achieve excess returns amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4][5]. 2. **Global Economic Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by generally constructive global growth expectations, particularly the potential for acceleration in 2027. The baseline index target price has been raised, reflecting a wider range between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios due to six key macroeconomic dimensions [3][4][5]. 3. **Key Macro Drivers**: The six dimensions influencing market performance include: - U.S. economic growth - Dollar movements - China's re-inflation - U.S. interest rates - Multipolar world dynamics - Capital expenditures in artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand [3][4][5]. 4. **Japan's Performance**: In the baseline scenario, Japan is expected to slightly outperform emerging markets. Earnings per share (EPS) expectations for Japan are slightly above market consensus, while those for emerging markets and China are below consensus. The trend of re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE) are expected to be supported by the new government through moderate fiscal policies and regulatory reforms [4][5][22]. 5. **Emerging Markets Outlook**: Emerging markets are anticipated to lose momentum in 2026 due to stabilizing dollar conditions, which will limit further easing of financial conditions. A moderate optimism is maintained for the Chinese market, with expectations that the multi-polar world risk will diminish, keeping valuations close to current levels [4][5][22]. 6. **Sector Recommendations**: The company continues to recommend overweight positions in financials, consumer discretionary/e-commerce, and industrials, while underweighting energy and materials. Information technology, telecommunications, and real estate are maintained at equal weight [5][22]. 7. **Investment Themes**: The core investment themes for 2026 include a multipolar world, technology diffusion, longevity trends, and the future of energy, reflecting a rapidly changing global landscape [15][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Valuation and Earnings Forecasts**: The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts, particularly for Japan, while making smaller adjustments for China and emerging markets. The forecasts reflect a more optimistic view on global growth and inflation, as well as resilience in the financial sector [22][40]. 2. **Historical Performance Context**: The year 2025 is noted as an anomalous year, with market performance resembling that of 2020, driven by U.S. tariffs, fiscal, and monetary policies. The current valuations are significantly above long-term averages, which may limit the outlook for emerging markets [15][18]. 3. **Volatility Expectations**: The company expects continued significant differentiation in market, sector, and stock returns, a key characteristic of 2025, indicating a need for robust portfolio construction to navigate uncertainties [18][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the outlook for Asia's emerging markets in 2026, highlighting the strategic focus on Japan and the broader macroeconomic context influencing investment decisions.

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Russia, Europe, and China are complex and uncertain, particularly in the context of potential leadership changes in Russia and the implications for international relations [1][2]. Group 1: Russia's Stance and Strategy - Russia has consistently emphasized the importance of security and territorial integrity since Putin's rise to power in 2000, indicating that core interests will not easily change regardless of leadership [2]. - Medvedev has stated that Russia is not interested in war with Europe, but warns that misjudgments by European nations could lead to severe consequences [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted over three years, with Russia's economy enduring sanctions yet remaining resilient, highlighting its ability to navigate through adversity [2]. Group 2: Energy and Economic Relations - In 2021, Europe relied on Russia for 40% of its natural gas, which is projected to drop to 10% by 2024, yet the existing pipeline infrastructure still connects the two regions [2]. - The trade volume between China and Russia is expected to exceed $240 billion in 2024, showcasing a strong economic partnership that benefits both nations [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Medvedev's comments reflect a growing assertiveness in Russian foreign policy, emphasizing that a change in leadership will not resolve deep-rooted conflicts between Russian security needs and European values [4]. - The European Union has spent over a thousand billion euros in aid to Ukraine, leading to rising energy prices and social unrest within Europe, indicating a challenging economic environment [4]. - The rise of nationalism and far-right movements in Europe is causing economic strain, with European companies facing high operational costs and increasing unemployment [5]. Group 4: China-Russia Relations - The relationship between China and Russia is characterized by mutual interests rather than personal ties, with both countries collaborating on strategic stability and anti-hegemonic efforts [5][6]. - Cultural exchanges between China and Russia are thriving, with increased tourism and educational interactions, reinforcing the bilateral relationship [6]. - Medvedev predicts that Europe's optimistic expectations regarding Russia will be shattered, leading to further difficulties for European nations [6].

Core Points - The third Minsk Eurasian Security International Conference opened in Minsk, Belarus, with participation from over 40 countries and regions, as well as 7 international organizations, discussing strategic stability, arms control, regional cooperation, information and economic security, and migration issues [1][9] Group 1: Key Statements from Leaders - Belarusian President Lukashenko stated that the Western unipolar world order poses a threat to global stability, advocating for a multipolar world based on mutual respect and cooperation, and emphasizing the need for diplomatic dialogue over sanctions [2][4] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized that Europe must abandon its "arrogant exclusive claims" and hostile stance towards many Eurasian countries, including Russia and Belarus, expressing willingness to engage in substantive discussions on security issues [5][10] - Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto highlighted the importance of regional partnerships in addressing migration and economic security issues, urging all parties to adopt inclusive approaches that benefit all stakeholders [7]

Core Views - China actively participates in global governance with a constructive approach, promoting international order towards a direction that aligns with the common interests of humanity through four global initiatives [1][4] Group 1: Global Initiatives - The four global initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping—Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative, and Global Governance Initiative—represent a systematic response to global development and governance needs [2][3] - The Global Development Initiative focuses on narrowing the North-South gap and enhancing development investment to support the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals [2] - The Global Security Initiative addresses global security challenges, advocating for the principle of indivisible security and a common security approach [2] - The Global Civilization Initiative promotes respect for cultural diversity and encourages exchanges among civilizations to foster human progress [2] - The Global Governance Initiative calls for increased representation and voice for developing countries in global governance, aiming to rectify imbalances in the traditional global governance system [2][3] Group 2: China's Role in Multilateral Cooperation - China plays a significant role in various multilateral cooperation mechanisms, providing practical support for the implementation of the four global initiatives [3] - In the BRICS cooperation framework, China collaborates with other countries to expand cooperation beyond economic realms into political security and cultural exchanges [3] - Within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China leads efforts to enhance cooperation and maintain stability in the Eurasian region [3] - As the largest trading partner of ASEAN, China deepens cooperation in trade, culture, and security, contributing to regional integration [3] - In Africa and the Middle East, China builds dialogue platforms and promotes infrastructure projects, contributing to local development [3] Group 3: Future Implications - The four global initiatives serve as a clear roadmap towards a multipolar world, reflecting China's growing economic strength and international influence [3] - These initiatives break the monopoly of a few countries in development, security, civilization, and governance, establishing these rights as common entitlements for all humanity [3] - As cooperation under these initiatives deepens, China is expected to play a more significant role in promoting global multipolarity and building a community with a shared future for mankind [4]

Group 1 - Recent high-level interactions between China and the US include video calls between defense ministers and discussions between foreign ministers, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement [1] - The Madrid talks aimed to address long-standing trade differences, covering issues such as unilateral tariffs, export controls, and the TikTok situation, with a basic framework for cooperation established [3] - The US is attempting to rally allies to pressure China, particularly regarding tariffs on Russian oil purchases, but faces resistance from allies who are economically dependent on China [5] Group 2 - China has implemented targeted countermeasures against US pressure, including export license requirements for rare earth elements and increased tariffs on US agricultural products, impacting US farmers significantly [7] - The US ban on Chinese drones has backfired, revealing the US drone industry's heavy reliance on Chinese components, which could lead to a crisis if China imposes export controls [9] - The competitive and controlling nature of US-China relations has shifted, with China now actively countering US measures and demonstrating its technological capabilities [11] Group 3 - The US's view of a multipolar world is evolving, but it continues to see China as a major competitor, indicating that strategic competition will persist [13] - The reality of high costs in the US high-tech sector, exemplified by drone manufacturing, highlights the challenges faced by the US as it navigates the trade war with China [15] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains with China suggests that sanctions against China could have far-reaching implications for global economic stability [15]

Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the historical significance of the victory in World War II and the establishment of the United Nations, highlighting the need to remember the sacrifices made by those who fought for peace and freedom [1][2] - It condemns any attempts to distort the meaning of World War II victory and the role of member states in defeating fascism, asserting that crimes against humanity will never be forgotten [2][3] - The importance of preserving the historical truth of World War II is stressed as a necessary condition for preventing similar tragedies and maintaining peace and security [2][3] Group 2 - The statement calls for the strengthening of comprehensive international mechanisms aimed at fostering constructive cooperation based on mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit [3] - It supports the role of the United Nations in building a more representative and democratic multipolar world, emphasizing the need for reform to enhance the representation of developing countries [3] - The collective responsibility to prevent future wars and tragedies is highlighted, urging all nations to work together to ensure peace for future generations [3]

Group 1 - The statement commemorates the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II and the founding of the United Nations, emphasizing the historical significance of these events [1][2] - It highlights the catastrophic consequences of World War II, including the loss of millions of lives, and condemns the ideologies of Nazism, fascism, and militarism that instigated the war [1][2] - The leaders express gratitude and respect for those who sacrificed their lives for peace and freedom, and stress the responsibility of the current generation to honor their memory [1][2] Group 2 - The statement firmly condemns any attempts to distort the significance of World War II victory and the role of member states in defeating fascism, emphasizing the importance of preserving historical truth [2][3] - It calls for continued research and educational initiatives to maintain the historical memory of the war, warning that ignoring historical lessons could lead to severe consequences [2][3] - The leaders support the UN's role in promoting peace, security, and socio-economic development, recognizing the UN as a cornerstone of modern international relations [2][3] Group 3 - The statement emphasizes the necessity of adhering to the principles of the UN Charter and international law to maintain lasting world peace [3][4] - It advocates for strengthening international mechanisms that promote constructive cooperation based on mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit [3][4] - The leaders express a commitment to ensuring the representation of developing countries in the UN, which is seen as vital for enhancing the UN's authority and efficiency [4]