2026年亚洲新兴市场股票展望 November 18, 2025 05:12 AM GMT 风云未定，稳中求胜 我们建议在2026年采取紧贴基准指数的市场风险敞口，相对 新兴市场我们略微偏好日本。通过我们的全球新兴市场、亚 太地区（不含日本）、中国、日本以及主题焦点名单进行选 股，有助于在持续的宏观不确定性中获取超额收益。 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment deci ...

家人们，国际局势就像一场充满悬念的大戏，永远不知道下一秒会发生什么！最近，一个超刺激的话题 在舆论场炸开了锅——假如普京哪天真从台上退下来，俄罗斯会不会一下子就跟欧洲握手言和，转头和 中国闹掰？梅德韦杰夫这个"大嘴巴"最近放话，直接给欧洲泼了盆冷水，说欧洲别做这种美梦，到头来 自己下场会惨兮兮的。这背后到底藏着多少地缘政治的猫腻？咱们一起来扒一扒！ 在风云变幻的国际舞台上，普京的动向一直是全球关注的焦点。最近，一个大胆的假设引发了无数人的 讨论：要是普京哪天真从权力宝座上退下来，俄罗斯会不会立刻转变态度，和欧洲"化干戈为玉帛"，却 和中国"反目成仇"呢？这就像是一场充满未知的冒险，让人忍不住想要一探究竟。 梅德韦杰夫，这个曾经被西方视为温和派的人物，如今说话却越来越硬气。2025年9月29日，他在公开 场合直言不讳，就像一把锋利的匕首，直戳欧洲的"美梦"。他毫不留情地指出，欧洲国家根本扛不住跟 俄罗斯的战争，还特别提到核风险就像一颗随时可能爆炸的定时炸弹，随时可能出事。在他看来，那些 幻想普京一走俄罗斯就掉头向欧洲的人，简直太天真了，就像一群活在幻想中的孩子，根本看不清现实 的残酷。 俄罗斯这些年面对北约东扩 ...

Core Points - The third Minsk Eurasian Security International Conference opened in Minsk, Belarus, with participation from over 40 countries and regions, as well as 7 international organizations, discussing strategic stability, arms control, regional cooperation, information and economic security, and migration issues [1][9] Group 1: Key Statements from Leaders - Belarusian President Lukashenko stated that the Western unipolar world order poses a threat to global stability, advocating for a multipolar world based on mutual respect and cooperation, and emphasizing the need for diplomatic dialogue over sanctions [2][4] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized that Europe must abandon its "arrogant exclusive claims" and hostile stance towards many Eurasian countries, including Russia and Belarus, expressing willingness to engage in substantive discussions on security issues [5][10] - Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto highlighted the importance of regional partnerships in addressing migration and economic security issues, urging all parties to adopt inclusive approaches that benefit all stakeholders [7]

Core Views - China actively participates in global governance with a constructive approach, promoting international order towards a direction that aligns with the common interests of humanity through four global initiatives [1][4] Group 1: Global Initiatives - The four global initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping—Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative, and Global Governance Initiative—represent a systematic response to global development and governance needs [2][3] - The Global Development Initiative focuses on narrowing the North-South gap and enhancing development investment to support the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals [2] - The Global Security Initiative addresses global security challenges, advocating for the principle of indivisible security and a common security approach [2] - The Global Civilization Initiative promotes respect for cultural diversity and encourages exchanges among civilizations to foster human progress [2] - The Global Governance Initiative calls for increased representation and voice for developing countries in global governance, aiming to rectify imbalances in the traditional global governance system [2][3] Group 2: China's Role in Multilateral Cooperation - China plays a significant role in various multilateral cooperation mechanisms, providing practical support for the implementation of the four global initiatives [3] - In the BRICS cooperation framework, China collaborates with other countries to expand cooperation beyond economic realms into political security and cultural exchanges [3] - Within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China leads efforts to enhance cooperation and maintain stability in the Eurasian region [3] - As the largest trading partner of ASEAN, China deepens cooperation in trade, culture, and security, contributing to regional integration [3] - In Africa and the Middle East, China builds dialogue platforms and promotes infrastructure projects, contributing to local development [3] Group 3: Future Implications - The four global initiatives serve as a clear roadmap towards a multipolar world, reflecting China's growing economic strength and international influence [3] - These initiatives break the monopoly of a few countries in development, security, civilization, and governance, establishing these rights as common entitlements for all humanity [3] - As cooperation under these initiatives deepens, China is expected to play a more significant role in promoting global multipolarity and building a community with a shared future for mankind [4]

Group 1 - Recent high-level interactions between China and the US include video calls between defense ministers and discussions between foreign ministers, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement [1] - The Madrid talks aimed to address long-standing trade differences, covering issues such as unilateral tariffs, export controls, and the TikTok situation, with a basic framework for cooperation established [3] - The US is attempting to rally allies to pressure China, particularly regarding tariffs on Russian oil purchases, but faces resistance from allies who are economically dependent on China [5] Group 2 - China has implemented targeted countermeasures against US pressure, including export license requirements for rare earth elements and increased tariffs on US agricultural products, impacting US farmers significantly [7] - The US ban on Chinese drones has backfired, revealing the US drone industry's heavy reliance on Chinese components, which could lead to a crisis if China imposes export controls [9] - The competitive and controlling nature of US-China relations has shifted, with China now actively countering US measures and demonstrating its technological capabilities [11] Group 3 - The US's view of a multipolar world is evolving, but it continues to see China as a major competitor, indicating that strategic competition will persist [13] - The reality of high costs in the US high-tech sector, exemplified by drone manufacturing, highlights the challenges faced by the US as it navigates the trade war with China [15] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains with China suggests that sanctions against China could have far-reaching implications for global economic stability [15]

Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the historical significance of the victory in World War II and the establishment of the United Nations, highlighting the need to remember the sacrifices made by those who fought for peace and freedom [1][2] - It condemns any attempts to distort the meaning of World War II victory and the role of member states in defeating fascism, asserting that crimes against humanity will never be forgotten [2][3] - The importance of preserving the historical truth of World War II is stressed as a necessary condition for preventing similar tragedies and maintaining peace and security [2][3] Group 2 - The statement calls for the strengthening of comprehensive international mechanisms aimed at fostering constructive cooperation based on mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit [3] - It supports the role of the United Nations in building a more representative and democratic multipolar world, emphasizing the need for reform to enhance the representation of developing countries [3] - The collective responsibility to prevent future wars and tragedies is highlighted, urging all nations to work together to ensure peace for future generations [3]

Group 1 - The statement commemorates the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II and the founding of the United Nations, emphasizing the historical significance of these events [1][2] - It highlights the catastrophic consequences of World War II, including the loss of millions of lives, and condemns the ideologies of Nazism, fascism, and militarism that instigated the war [1][2] - The leaders express gratitude and respect for those who sacrificed their lives for peace and freedom, and stress the responsibility of the current generation to honor their memory [1][2] Group 2 - The statement firmly condemns any attempts to distort the significance of World War II victory and the role of member states in defeating fascism, emphasizing the importance of preserving historical truth [2][3] - It calls for continued research and educational initiatives to maintain the historical memory of the war, warning that ignoring historical lessons could lead to severe consequences [2][3] - The leaders support the UN's role in promoting peace, security, and socio-economic development, recognizing the UN as a cornerstone of modern international relations [2][3] Group 3 - The statement emphasizes the necessity of adhering to the principles of the UN Charter and international law to maintain lasting world peace [3][4] - It advocates for strengthening international mechanisms that promote constructive cooperation based on mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit [3][4] - The leaders express a commitment to ensuring the representation of developing countries in the UN, which is seen as vital for enhancing the UN's authority and efficiency [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in building a multipolar world, representing a significant portion of the global population and covering the most dynamic economic regions [1] - The SCO is built on the "Shanghai Spirit," which focuses on respecting different cultures and civilizations, treating all parties equally, and rejecting Cold War mentality [1] - The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, expresses honor in attending the upcoming SCO summit and aims to deepen cooperation between the UN and the SCO [1] Group 2 - Guterres highlights that the SCO member states play a crucial role in the process of establishing a truly multipolar world, which is still a goal that has not yet been fully realized [1] - The need for collaboration among all regions, cultures, religions, and civilizations is emphasized as essential for achieving a multipolar world [1]

Core Insights - The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has become an important economic development center in the global economic landscape over the past decade [1] - The EAEU aims to establish itself as a harmonious development pole in a multipolar world by 2030 [1] Economic Growth - The total economic output of the EAEU has increased by 18% over the past ten years, exceeding $2.5 trillion [1] - Industrial production within the EAEU has grown by nearly 30%, while agricultural production has increased by 25% [1] - Intra-EAEU trade has more than doubled, with Kyrgyzstan's trade with EAEU countries also experiencing a twofold increase [1] International Cooperation - The EAEU has signed multiple trade agreements to expand partnerships with significant integration organizations across Eurasia and other regions [1] - There is a call for continued efforts to eliminate restrictions on the free movement of goods, services, and capital, as well as to improve the business environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Germany's strong response to the potential increase in tariffs by the United States, marking a significant shift in its historical stance towards U.S. pressure, indicating a potential turning point in global trade dynamics [2][30]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. government has proposed increasing tariffs on most European goods to 15% and potentially up to 30%, which has alarmed Germany, a major exporter to the U.S. with exports valued at €58 billion [4][6]. - The proposed 30% tariff could lead to a GDP decline of 0.3-0.5% for Germany, resulting in potential losses of up to €20 billion [6]. Group 2: Germany's Response - Germany's leadership has shifted from compliance to a more confrontational stance, indicating a readiness to challenge U.S. demands [9]. - The visit of European leaders to China is seen as a strategic move to strengthen Germany's position against U.S. tariffs, with China being Germany's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expected to reach €240 billion by 2024 [11][13]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - The article contrasts Germany's current situation with Japan's past experience during the 1980s trade tensions with the U.S., which led to Japan's prolonged economic stagnation [21][24]. - In contrast, China's response to U.S. tariffs has resulted in significant trade surpluses, providing a model for Germany to follow [17][19]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights a broader trend of shifting global power dynamics, with emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil challenging U.S. dominance, suggesting that the era of unilateral U.S. trade policies may be coming to an end [30][32]. - Germany's awakening signifies a potential shift in European unity against U.S. trade practices, with the possibility of forming a coalition with other EU nations to resist U.S. pressure [35][37].