发言人 1: 欢迎收看《市场观察》。我是史蒂文·伯格，摩根士丹利全球主题与可持续发展研究主管； 我是米歇尔·韦弗，美国主题与股票策略师。我近期曾做客本节目，探讨摩根士丹利 2026 年的四大核心主题。今天我们将分析这些主题今年在现实世界中的具体演绎。今天是 2 月 10 日周二，纽约时间上午 10 点。当前投资者面临的最大挑战之一，是从噪音中甄别有效 信号。市场对新闻标题的反应瞬息万变，但长期回报的真正驱动因素往往变化更慢、影响 更深远。 这正是主题分析成为我们市场思考核心工具的原因——尤其在高波动时期。2026 年，我 们的框架围绕四大主题构建：人工智能（从科技到融合）、能源未来、多极世界与社会变 迁。换言之，其中三个是熟悉的主题，一个是去年主题的重要演进。 米歇尔，我们先从核心问题开始。当投资者听到四大关键主题时，2026 年框架与 2025 年提出的版本有何不同？ 另一个问题是，大语言模型（LLAM）的潜在能力与普通用户的实际使用水平之间可能存 在巨大差距。当然会有例外——领先企业能充分利用大语言模型的全部潜力并取得显著甚 至惊人的成果，但整体平均水平并非如此，因此会出现一定的滞后效应。不过我认为，当 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's 2026 market outlook highlights four major themes: AI technology diffusion, future energy, a multipolar world, and social change, presenting ten key predictions for investors to understand the evolving market landscape driven by technology [1] Group 1: AI Technology and Market Dynamics - The development of global AI technology is expected to show a bifurcated pattern, with the U.S. leading in advanced models while other regions lag behind, creating a "two worlds" scenario in AI development [2] - There will be an exponential growth in computing power demand driven by the proliferation of AI applications, which will outpace supply growth, fundamentally changing the economics of data centers [3] Group 2: Policy and Geopolitical Implications - The Trump administration is predicted to implement stronger policies than expected, focusing on securing domestic supplies of critical minerals, supporting manufacturing return, increasing military spending, and lowering consumer costs [4] - There will be increasing pressure for AI technology transfer and a push for national self-sufficiency, affecting trade dynamics and leading countries to enhance their domestic AI capabilities [5] Group 3: Energy and Infrastructure - Rising global energy costs will trigger a backlash against data center growth, prompting the introduction of low-cost energy support policies and encouraging data centers to adopt off-grid power strategies [6] - Major AI companies will accelerate the integration of energy infrastructure to secure reliable and cost-effective energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency through AI [7] Group 4: Manufacturing and Investment Trends - China is expected to increase its share in the global manufacturing market in key tech-intensive sectors, while the U.S. manufacturing landscape will shift towards domestic production as technology diffusion diminishes the low-cost labor advantage [8] - Latin America is entering a new investment cycle driven by policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates, with this bull market being investment-led rather than consumption-driven [9] Group 5: Workforce and Economic Transformation - Companies and governments will initiate extensive retraining programs to address employment changes driven by AI, responding to the political sensitivity surrounding job displacement caused by AI applications [10] - Transformative AI is anticipated to reshape the economy and asset valuations, with early signs of price declines across multiple sectors by the second half of 2026, leading to increased wage inequality and upward pressure on capital expenditures and interest rates [11][12]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's 2026 market outlook highlights four major themes: AI technology diffusion, energy future, multipolar world, and social change, presenting ten key predictions for investors to understand the evolving market landscape driven by technology [1] Group 1: AI Technology Predictions - Prediction one indicates a bifurcated global AI development landscape, with the U.S. expected to achieve a leap in capabilities for frontier large models by the first half of 2026, while competitors in other regions will struggle to match this progress, creating a "two worlds" scenario in AI development [2] - Prediction two emphasizes that the demand for computing power will grow exponentially, outpacing supply growth, driven by the proliferation of AI applications and increasing complexity of use cases [3] Group 2: Policy and Economic Implications - Prediction three forecasts that the Trump administration will implement stronger policies than anticipated, focusing on ensuring domestic supply of critical minerals, supporting manufacturing return, increasing military spending, and lowering consumer costs [4] - Prediction four discusses the pressure for AI technology transfer and the pursuit of national self-sufficiency, which may affect trade dynamics as countries strive to enhance their domestic AI capabilities [5] Group 3: Energy and Infrastructure - Prediction five states that rising global energy costs will lead to a backlash against data center growth, prompting the introduction of low-cost energy support policies and encouraging data center projects to adopt off-grid power strategies [6] - Prediction six predicts that major AI companies will accelerate their integration with energy infrastructure to secure reliable and cost-effective energy sources, thereby enhancing energy and power efficiency through AI [7] Group 4: Manufacturing and Labor Market Changes - Prediction seven suggests that China will increase its share in the global manufacturing market in key tech-intensive sectors, while the U.S. manufacturing balance will tilt towards domestic production as technology diffusion diminishes the advantage of low-cost labor [8] - Prediction ten highlights that companies and governments will initiate extensive retraining programs to address employment changes driven by AI, with political sensitivity around perceived job losses leading to various policy interventions [10] Group 5: Economic Transformation - Prediction eight indicates that Latin America will enter a new investment cycle driven by policy shifts, geopolitical changes, and peak interest rates, with this bull market being investment-led rather than consumption-driven [9] - Prediction nine anticipates early signs of transformative AI leading to rapid price declines across multiple sectors by the second half of 2026, which may exacerbate wage inequality and increase capital expenditures, reshaping national competitiveness [11]

Summary of the 2026 Asia EM Equity Outlook Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Asia Emerging Markets (EM) equity outlook for 2026, with a particular emphasis on Japan and other emerging markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Strategy for 2026**: The company recommends maintaining a market risk exposure closely aligned with benchmark indices, with a slight preference for Japan over other emerging markets. This strategy aims to achieve excess returns amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4][5]. 2. **Global Economic Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by generally constructive global growth expectations, particularly the potential for acceleration in 2027. The baseline index target price has been raised, reflecting a wider range between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios due to six key macroeconomic dimensions [3][4][5]. 3. **Key Macro Drivers**: The six dimensions influencing market performance include: - U.S. economic growth - Dollar movements - China's re-inflation - U.S. interest rates - Multipolar world dynamics - Capital expenditures in artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand [3][4][5]. 4. **Japan's Performance**: In the baseline scenario, Japan is expected to slightly outperform emerging markets. Earnings per share (EPS) expectations for Japan are slightly above market consensus, while those for emerging markets and China are below consensus. The trend of re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE) are expected to be supported by the new government through moderate fiscal policies and regulatory reforms [4][5][22]. 5. **Emerging Markets Outlook**: Emerging markets are anticipated to lose momentum in 2026 due to stabilizing dollar conditions, which will limit further easing of financial conditions. A moderate optimism is maintained for the Chinese market, with expectations that the multi-polar world risk will diminish, keeping valuations close to current levels [4][5][22]. 6. **Sector Recommendations**: The company continues to recommend overweight positions in financials, consumer discretionary/e-commerce, and industrials, while underweighting energy and materials. Information technology, telecommunications, and real estate are maintained at equal weight [5][22]. 7. **Investment Themes**: The core investment themes for 2026 include a multipolar world, technology diffusion, longevity trends, and the future of energy, reflecting a rapidly changing global landscape [15][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Valuation and Earnings Forecasts**: The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts, particularly for Japan, while making smaller adjustments for China and emerging markets. The forecasts reflect a more optimistic view on global growth and inflation, as well as resilience in the financial sector [22][40]. 2. **Historical Performance Context**: The year 2025 is noted as an anomalous year, with market performance resembling that of 2020, driven by U.S. tariffs, fiscal, and monetary policies. The current valuations are significantly above long-term averages, which may limit the outlook for emerging markets [15][18]. 3. **Volatility Expectations**: The company expects continued significant differentiation in market, sector, and stock returns, a key characteristic of 2025, indicating a need for robust portfolio construction to navigate uncertainties [18][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the outlook for Asia's emerging markets in 2026, highlighting the strategic focus on Japan and the broader macroeconomic context influencing investment decisions.