长期国债对冲功能弱化

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Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 11:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in the commodity and bond markets, particularly the surge in gold and silver prices, driven by factors such as the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and the diminishing hedging function of long-term government bonds [1][3][5]. - Gold has recently broken the $3,500 mark, reaching a historical high, while silver has surpassed $40, marking a 14-year peak [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a sell-off, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets, including the U.S., U.K., and France, reaching multi-year highs, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the existing financial system [4][5]. Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate is approaching 3%, and the potential for a significant economic impact from this inflation may not be fully realized until the fourth quarter [3]. - The U.K.'s current deficit as a percentage of GDP is comparable to historical periods of significant upheaval, such as the French Revolution [6]. - The article suggests that as governments accumulate excessive debt and lose the trust of major debt buyers, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a reliable asset that does not depend on government promises [8]. Group 3 - The articles indicate that September is historically a poor month for stock and bond markets, with global government bonds over ten years showing a median decline of 2% in September over the past decade [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value of European stocks remains strong, supported by sectors such as luxury goods, pharmaceuticals, and green energy, which possess significant pricing power and competitive advantages [19][20]. - The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is strategically reallocating its investments, betting on European stocks outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade based on valuation assessments [21].