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宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025年9月24日)-20250924
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal market, due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on grains and by - products, the global supply of soybeans and by - products faces shocks. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and concerns about short - term supply persist. With the approaching National Day holiday, market funds prefer short - term trading, and after the release of market sentiment, the market may stop falling and stabilize [5]. - In the palm oil market, the domestic import profit is in a reverse state, which restricts new purchases. There is an inventory pressure due to more arrivals in the near - month and limited downstream demand. The short - term market lacks a single driver and shows a wide - range shock [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Argentina's export tax suspension affects global supply. Domestic supply pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to arrivals in the fourth quarter. Near the National Day holiday, funds focus on short - term trading, and the market may stabilize after the release of emotions [5] - **Core Logic Summary**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic import profit inversion restricts new purchases. There is inventory pressure due to more arrivals and limited demand. The short - term market is affected by policy expectations, export data, inventory changes, and neighboring oil varieties, showing a wide - range shock [7] - **Core Logic Summary**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6] 3.3 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic Summary**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]