Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently hesitant to lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and a resilient economy, despite market expectations for a rate cut in early 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Obstacles to Rate Cuts - The primary barrier to rate cuts is that inflation has not been fully tamed, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly down from its peak of 9%, but recent data has repeatedly exceeded expectations, indicating a plateau in the decline [2]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, with high housing service costs and service sector inflation supported by wage growth, compelling the Fed to exercise patience [2][3]. - The strong job market and economic growth reduce the urgency for the Fed to cut rates, as the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is steady, supporting consumer spending and contributing to inflation [2]. Group 2: Drivers for Future Rate Cuts - Despite the challenges, rate cuts are likely on the Fed's policy path, albeit delayed, as maintaining high rates carries its own risks [4]. - The lagging effects of restrictive interest rates may suppress business investment and consumer credit, potentially leading to unnecessary economic downturns or a hard landing in the job market [4]. - The Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and preventing a spike in unemployment, necessitating a gradual approach to rate cuts once inflation is under control [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The likelihood of rate cuts in 2023 remains, but the timing and magnitude have been significantly adjusted [6]. - Market expectations for the timing of rate cuts have shifted from early predictions of March or June to September or later, with the focus now on whether any cuts will occur this year [6]. - The anticipated number of rate cuts has decreased from 6-7 to 1-2, with the Fed indicating that any rate reduction will be gradual and data-dependent [6]. - Political pressures in the election year of 2024 may complicate the Fed's decision-making process, despite its efforts to maintain independence [6].

欧洲央行管委内格尔：利率已无法再被称为限制性利率。 ...