随机前沿分析

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行业反内卷:机会还是风险?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 11:11
Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" movement in various industries aims for quality improvement and high-quality development rather than merely reducing capacity [1][14]. Group 1: Economic and Employment Impact - "Anti-involution" has a short-term impact on the economy and employment, but with appropriate employment policies and new effective supply, the short-term pressure can be managed [19]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate in China has dropped to 74.0%, indicating significant overcapacity issues [4][5]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Analysis - Key industries facing overcapacity include steel, coal, automotive, battery, photovoltaic, cement, and petrochemicals, with utilization rates in these sectors ranking among the lowest [6]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a reduction in price war pressures, with profit margins stabilizing, indicating a shift from price competition to value competition [15]. - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, but recent policies are pushing for the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in prices for silicon materials and wafers [16]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The "anti-involution" policy emphasizes legal and market-driven approaches, contrasting with the previous round of capacity reduction that was primarily administratively driven [12]. - The new policies include measures such as the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the establishment of fair competition review systems to prevent price dumping [12]. - The focus of the current "anti-involution" is on both traditional and emerging industries, aiming to alleviate price wars and promote innovation and green transformation [8][10]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that industrial capacity utilization in China has decreased from a peak of 85.2% in 2007 to the current 74.0%, highlighting the need for structural reforms to address overcapacity [5]. - The anticipated impact of a 5% capacity reduction in key sectors like steel and coal is projected to decrease GDP growth by approximately 0.22 percentage points, indicating a manageable but notable effect on the economy [8].