集中退保风险

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投资不确定性下保险市场系统性风险研究——基于集中退保视角的风险传染分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 00:48
Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the systemic risks in the insurance market due to investment uncertainties, which can lead to a loss of investor confidence and potential bankruptcies among financial institutions [2][3][5] - The article discusses the phenomenon of "herd behavior" among policyholders, where a lack of confidence can lead to mass withdrawals, posing a significant risk to insurance companies [3][4] - The research emphasizes the importance of understanding the transmission mechanisms of systemic risk within the insurance market, particularly in the context of shared risk exposures among companies [5][6] Group 2 - The study develops a risk contagion model based on the classic Diamond-Dybvig model, focusing on two insurance companies with shared risk exposure and examines policyholder withdrawal decisions under investment uncertainty [4][5] - The analysis reveals that the systemic risk in the insurance market is influenced by the asset allocation of insurance companies, the correlation of assets between companies, and the personal savings rates of policyholders [8][9][10] - The findings indicate that higher initial withdrawal rates and greater expected cash values of policies at withdrawal increase the systemic risk in the insurance market [12][14] Group 3 - The article concludes that systemic risk in the insurance market initially decreases with increasing risk asset scale but eventually increases, while it consistently decreases with higher expected returns on risk assets [16] - Recommendations for policy improvements include enhancing policyholder education to mitigate irrational withdrawal decisions and promoting prudent investment strategies among insurance companies [17]