构建适应未来产业发展的金融体制是一项复杂的系统工程，要求我们以党的二十届四中全会精神为统 领，坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，勇于打破路径依赖和制度壁垒，推动金融发展、金融创新与金融 监管在更高水平上实现动态平衡。 "十五五"时期是我国在全面建成小康社会基础上，乘势而上开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的 关键五年。党的二十届四中全会公报（以下简称《公报》）指出，要建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实 体经济根基，特别是要优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。以此审视并前瞻性地规划未 来产业发展，并构建与之相匹配的现代化金融体制，具有至关重要的战略意义。未来产业代表新科技革 命和产业变革的方向，是塑造国家竞争新优势、培育新质生产力的核心场域。它以其颠覆性创新、高风 险长周期、知识资本密集等特征，对传统以银行信贷为主导、偏好抵押担保和稳定现金流的金融体系提 出了挑战。因此，必须以《公报》和"十五五"规划建议为指引，深刻把握金融与实体经济，特别是与未 来产业之间的辩证关系，破除体制机制障碍，构建一个能够创新引领、有效支撑、精准灌溉、审慎监管 未来产业发展的现代化金融体制。这不仅是金融自身实现高质量发展的内在要求 ...

"十五五"时期，"构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系"将有哪些重要着力点？还有哪些"蓄势待发"的宏观 审慎管理新工具？ 分析人士普遍认为，在"十五五"时期，构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系具有重要意义。 中国社科院金融研究所副研究员曹婧在接受上海证券报记者采访时称，在经济换挡上坡的关键时期，容 易出现金融顺周期"大起大落"和跨市场、跨部门风险传染。构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系旨在加强 对金融周期、宏观杠杆率，以及重要金融机构、金融市场、金融交易行为的风险监测和预警，前瞻性提 升防范系统性金融风险的能力。 "近年来，全球金融体系复杂性和关联性显著增强，传统微观审慎监管侧重个体机构稳健，不足以应对 系统性风险的累积和跨市场传导。"曾刚表示，我国经济转向高质量发展阶段，也面临房地产、地方债 务等结构性风险，资本跨境流动波动性上升，这些情况都要求建立更加系统的宏观审慎管理体系。 曾刚表示，构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系将有助于强化逆周期调节、防范系统性金融风险、提升金 融体系韧性和政策协调性，同时配合货币政策形成"双支柱"调控架构，为维护金融稳定和促进经济长期 可持续增长提供制度保障。 宏观审慎管理工具箱有望进一步扩展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a comprehensive macroprudential management system will be a key focus for China's financial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as highlighted in the Central Committee's suggestions for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Macroprudential Management - Macroprudential management focuses on maintaining the overall stability of the financial system and mitigating systemic risks that can spread across institutions and markets [2][3]. - It differs from monetary policy, which targets macroeconomic demand, and microprudential regulation, which focuses on the stability of individual financial institutions [1][2]. Current Economic Context - The complexity and interconnectedness of the global financial system have increased, necessitating a comprehensive macroprudential management system to prevent financial contagion [1][6]. - China's transition to a high-quality development phase requires enhanced monitoring and early warning systems for financial cycles, macro leverage ratios, and risks associated with key financial institutions and markets [6][7]. Existing Framework and Tools - China has established a macroprudential assessment (MPA) framework, which includes tools for assessing systemic importance, cross-border financing adjustments, and real estate financial management [4][6]. - The MPA effectively guides banks in rational credit allocation and risk control through multi-dimensional assessments of capital adequacy, leverage ratios, liquidity, and asset quality [4][6]. Future Directions - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the macroprudential management toolbox by focusing on monitoring systemic risks, improving risk prevention measures for key institutions, and developing a more systematic and practical governance mechanism [7][8]. - Potential new tools may include dynamic leverage ratio tools, cross-border capital flow adjustment taxes, and mechanisms for providing liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions under specific conditions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of preventing systemic financial risks while enhancing monitoring and assessment mechanisms [1] Group 1: Financial Risk Management - The focus will be on preventing and resolving financial risks in key areas, ensuring that systemic financial risks do not occur [1] - Strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks is a priority [1] Group 2: Support for Financing Platforms - Continued support for the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms is planned [1] - The role of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism will be further leveraged to improve financing systems that align with new real estate development models [1] Group 3: Reform of Financial Institutions - Ongoing reforms for small and medium-sized financial institutions will be pursued to enhance their functional positioning and governance mechanisms [1] Group 4: Capital Market Stability - Efforts will be made to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market and to establish mechanisms for market stability [1] - A risk disposal responsibility mechanism that aligns incentives and constraints will be developed to strengthen the financial safety net [1]

潘功胜：目前债市整体运行良好人民银行将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作 潘功胜表示，去年，人民银行落实中央金融工作会议部署，在二级市场开始国债买卖操作。这是丰富货 币政策工具箱、增强国债金融功能、发挥国债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策与财政政策相互 协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。实践中，人民银行根 据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收益率曲线形态变化等情况，灵活开展国债买卖双向操作， 保障货币政策顺畅传导和金融市场平稳运行。今年初，考虑到债券市场供求不平衡压力较大、市场风险 有所累积，人民银行暂停了国债买卖。目前，债市整体运行良好，人民银行将恢复公开市场国债买卖操 作。 图片来源：每经记者张建摄 潘功胜：继续完善货币政策框架强化货币政策执行和传导 潘功胜表示，一年多来，面对复杂严峻的国内外形势，人民银行按照中央决策部署，坚持支持性的货币 政策立场，综合运用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。反映金融运行的主要宏 观金融指标也体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为我国经济的回升向好和金融市场稳定运行创造了良好 的货币金融环境。人民银行将继续坚持支持性的货币政 ...

基于此，伍超明预计，下阶段货币政策将从四方面发力：一是继续择机运用降准降息等总量工具，同时 优化并创新结构性货币政策工具，充分发挥其作用；二是强化货币与财政、产业等政策的协同效应，解 决需求端不足问题；三是畅通货币政策传导机制，通过健全市场化利率调控框架，强化利率政策执行和 监督，推动社会综合融资成本稳中有降；四是加强预期引导和管理，通过强化政策沟通，清晰传达政策 意图，稳定市场预期，从而"充分释放政策效能"。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，展望后期，总量工具层面，降息降准的空间和时 点可能取决于这一轮金融和通胀数据的修复情况，以及应对基建项目开工财政端潜在增量的货币支持配 合诉求等，不排除年末到明年上半年再度降准降息的可能性。结构性工具方面，预计下一阶段央行将加 大对科技创新领域的金融支持力度。 在健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范处置机制方面，央行强调"维护股市、债 市、汇市等金融市场平稳运行"。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) 近年来，我国金融市场整体稳健运行。外汇市场方面，央行坚持市场在汇率形成之中的决定性作用，面 对多变的外部环境，保持了人民币汇率的基本稳定。经过多年发展，中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is initiating industry discussions for stress testing the private credit market, highlighting growing concerns about potential systemic financial stability risks in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Bank of England is assessing the feasibility of a "system-wide exploratory scenario" (SWES) for the broader private credit market, similar to previous evaluations of risks in the core financial markets [1]. - A decision on whether to proceed with the stress tests is expected within the next 12 months, with more details anticipated before Christmas [1]. Group 2: Concerns and Warnings - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need to "illuminate the opaque world of private finance," indicating the interconnected risks between private finance and the banking system [2]. - The Bank's July report highlighted significant data gaps that hinder understanding of how private markets operate under stress and their interactions with the broader financial system [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Private credit refers to companies borrowing directly from less-regulated financial institutions, such as private equity firms and asset managers, bypassing traditional banks [1]. - The private credit market has rapidly expanded since the global financial crisis, prompting warnings from various institutions, including the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) [1]. Group 4: Stress Testing Methodology - The success of the stress tests will require close cooperation from market participants, many of whom are not directly regulated by the Bank of England, making early industry communication crucial [2]. - The previous SWES assessment received responses from over 50 institutions, including asset management firms, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, and traditional banks [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in stock prices of Zions Bank (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) are attributed to concerns over loan losses, raising fears about the asset quality issues stemming from previous loose credit conditions and potential systemic financial risks [2][3] Group 1: Risk Origin and Comparison - The current risks faced by U.S. regional banks are primarily credit risks rather than interest rate risks, as analyzed in a previous report [2] - ZION and WAL differ significantly from the previously failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and First Republic Bank (FRC) in terms of liability stability, with ZION and WAL showing no signs of deposit runs [2][3] - The liability structures of ZION and WAL are more stable and diversified compared to SVB and FRC, with uninsured deposits at 43% and 50% respectively, and non-interest-bearing demand deposits at 32% and 28% [2][3] Group 2: Asset Quality and Credit Risk - The asset risks for ZION and WAL are primarily related to credit risk, unlike SVB and FRC, which faced significant interest rate risks due to their long-term bond holdings [3] - ZION and WAL have a higher proportion of loans (62% and 76%) compared to securities investments (30% and 13%), which reduces their exposure to interest rate fluctuations [3] - Current evidence does not suggest that the recent loan risk events are systemic, as the overall loan delinquency rates in the U.S. banking sector remain historically low [3] Group 3: Financial Stability and Systemic Impact - ZION and WAL's potential bad debt exposure is limited, with loan write-offs accounting for only 13% and 8% of their 2024 profits, and impacting their core Tier 1 capital minimally [3][4] - The asset sizes of ZION (888 billion) and WAL (809 billion) are significantly smaller than those of SVB and FRC, indicating that the current risks are more localized and do not pose a systemic threat to the financial system [4] - The high interest rate environment may lead to increased credit risks, but any resulting credit tightening is expected to be moderate unless clear signs of economic recession emerge [4]

周四，区域性银行股因信贷损失披露而大幅下跌，引发整个市场连锁反应。Zions Bancorp与Western Alliance在48小时内先后披露不良贷款，引发投资者担 忧行业信贷质量恶化。两家公司股价当日分别暴跌13%与11%，带动SPDR S&P区域银行ETF（KRE）单日下挫逾6%，创下四周连跌纪录。 然而，周五市场出现显著修复，KRE上涨1.6%，虽全周仍下跌1.9%，但恐慌情绪明显缓解。分析机构Vital Knowledge指出，目前的信贷问题集中于个别案 例，如破产的汽车零贷企业First Brands与Tricolor，并非系统性风险。 Zions Bancorp在Baird上调评级后反弹近6%，Baird认为该行市值跌幅与潜在贷款损失并不匹配。投资银行Jefferies同样收复部分跌势，股价上涨6%，此前 一天因First Brands破产拖累下挫11%。Oppenheimer将Jefferies评级上调至"跑赢大市"，助推买盘回流。与此同时，Fifth Third Bancorp公布的财报好于预 期，尽管其信贷损失有所增加，但利润依然实现增长，股价上涨1.3%，进一步提振银行板块信心。 周五 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected demand from the U.S. for a $350 billion cash payment from South Korea has raised concerns about the potential for a financial crisis reminiscent of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, as this amount represents 84% of South Korea's foreign exchange reserves [1][9][11]. Group 1: Background and Initial Agreement - In July, South Korea and the U.S. verbally reached a trade agreement, with South Korea expecting a flexible funding approach primarily through loans, guarantees, and equity cooperation, with cash being a minor part [3][5]. - The sudden shift in the U.S. stance, demanding a full cash payment, caught the South Korean government off guard [3][5]. Group 2: South Korea's Response - South Korea's National Security Advisor explicitly stated that the country cannot pay the $350 billion in cash, indicating a firm stance against the U.S. demand [7]. - President Lee Jae-myung warned that complying with the payment could lead to a repeat of the 1997 financial crisis, emphasizing the critical nature of the country's foreign exchange reserves [9][11]. Group 3: U.S. Financial Context - The U.S. is under significant financial pressure, with national debt exceeding $36 trillion and annual interest payments nearing $900 billion, prompting the demand for cash from allies like South Korea [13][15]. - The U.S. administration views the request for cash as a justified expectation from allies who benefit from U.S. military protection [15][41]. Group 4: Changing Dynamics in International Relations - The demand for cash from South Korea reflects a broader shift in the nature of U.S. alliances, moving from mutual political support to direct economic contributions [39][41]. - Other countries, including Germany and Australia, have also begun to push back against U.S. financial demands, indicating a potential shift in traditional ally relationships [29][39]. Group 5: Implications for Future Cooperation - The situation has led to a significant public backlash in South Korea, with over 72% of respondents opposing the use of foreign exchange reserves to meet U.S. demands [33]. - The ongoing dispute may lead to a re-evaluation of foreign direct investment flows in the Asia-Pacific region, as countries seek to diversify their international partnerships [37][48].