系统性金融风险

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投资不确定性下保险市场系统性风险研究——基于集中退保视角的风险传染分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 00:48
Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the systemic risks in the insurance market due to investment uncertainties, which can lead to a loss of investor confidence and potential bankruptcies among financial institutions [2][3][5] - The article discusses the phenomenon of "herd behavior" among policyholders, where a lack of confidence can lead to mass withdrawals, posing a significant risk to insurance companies [3][4] - The research emphasizes the importance of understanding the transmission mechanisms of systemic risk within the insurance market, particularly in the context of shared risk exposures among companies [5][6] Group 2 - The study develops a risk contagion model based on the classic Diamond-Dybvig model, focusing on two insurance companies with shared risk exposure and examines policyholder withdrawal decisions under investment uncertainty [4][5] - The analysis reveals that the systemic risk in the insurance market is influenced by the asset allocation of insurance companies, the correlation of assets between companies, and the personal savings rates of policyholders [8][9][10] - The findings indicate that higher initial withdrawal rates and greater expected cash values of policies at withdrawal increase the systemic risk in the insurance market [12][14] Group 3 - The article concludes that systemic risk in the insurance market initially decreases with increasing risk asset scale but eventually increases, while it consistently decreases with higher expected returns on risk assets [16] - Recommendations for policy improvements include enhancing policyholder education to mitigate irrational withdrawal decisions and promoting prudent investment strategies among insurance companies [17]
2025清华五道口全球金融论坛闭门会议一丨加强金融安全 防范系统性金融风险
清华金融评论· 2025-05-18 10:16
Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the importance of financial security as a critical component of national security and economic stability, highlighting the need for a long-term, systematic approach to strengthen financial safety measures in the face of evolving risks [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Security Importance - Financial is described as the lifeblood of the national economy and a key part of the country's core competitiveness [4]. - The stability and efficient operation of the financial system are crucial for resource allocation, economic innovation, and serving the real economy [4]. - Any instability in the financial system can rapidly affect the real economy, disrupting national economic order and social stability [4]. Group 2: Current Challenges - Experts noted that China's financial security faces unprecedented complexities, including the accumulation of traditional financial risks and the emergence of new risks, particularly due to the dual-edged effects of rapid financial technology development [5]. - There is a call for a "bottom-line thinking" approach, reinforcing a "systemic perspective," and building a "multi-party collaborative" financial security defense [5]. Group 3: Conference Outcomes - The successful hosting of the conference provided a high-level platform for in-depth communication and consensus-building, positively impacting the enhancement of China's financial security and the prevention of systemic financial risks [8].
稳市场稳预期|连平:三季度可能还有0.25到0.5个百分点的降准空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 02:52
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - From 2020 to 2024, the central bank has reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 1.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.5, and 1.0 percentage points respectively, indicating a trend towards easing monetary policy [2] - The Chief Economist Forum's chairman highlighted that lowering the reserve requirement ratio can promote domestic demand recovery and accelerate structural adjustments [2] Group 2 - On a macro level, the reduction in the reserve requirement ratio is aimed at releasing more liquidity to meet the funding needs for investment and consumption expansion, as well as restoring confidence [3] - The growth of credit and social financing remains strong, with new credit expected to exceed 21 trillion yuan and social financing to exceed 36 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a robust demand for liquidity [3] - On a micro level, financial institutions with ample funds can enhance the transmission of monetary policy, support credit allocation to key sectors, and alleviate liquidity pressures faced by private enterprises and local governments [3]