Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate while enhancing macro-prudential and financial stability measures [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The report advocates for a market-based approach to monetary policy, utilizing a managed floating exchange rate system [1] - It highlights the importance of exchange rate flexibility to serve as an automatic stabilizer for the macro economy and international balance of payments [1] Group 2: Financial Stability Measures - The central bank aims to expand and enrich its macro-prudential and financial stability functions [1] - There is a focus on improving the toolbox for macro-prudential and financial stability management to maintain market stability [1] - The report stresses the commitment to preventing systemic financial risks [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the implementation probability of "similar ONRRP" tools in China is low due to significant mismatches with the domestic financial market structure and liquidity framework [1][4][5] - The macro-prudential management in China has officially entered a new paradigm of "comprehensive coverage" and "preventive measures," with a focus on building liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank financial institutions [1][2] - Experts believe that the liquidity support mechanism for non-bank institutions is an "emergency arrangement under specific scenarios" rather than a routine tool, reflecting a proactive approach to preventing systemic financial risks [1][6] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has outlined the core direction for macro-prudential management, emphasizing the need to expand the coverage of macro-prudential policies and innovate policy tools [2][3] - Non-bank financial institutions are now included in the core regulatory framework due to their significant role in managing assets worth trillions of yuan and their impact on the bond, stock, and derivatives markets [2][3] - The risks in the bond market, such as interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks, are more pronounced for non-bank financial sectors compared to banks, necessitating a mechanism for providing liquidity to non-bank institutions in specific scenarios [3][4] Group 3 - The discussion around the potential creation of "similar ONRRP" tools has gained traction, but experts argue that the necessity for such tools in China is low due to the lack of urgency in creating liquidity absorption tools [4][5] - The current macroeconomic environment in China, characterized by a stable lower bound for interest rates, does not present a pressing need for tools similar to the ONRRP used by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank institutions are being explored, with the central bank indicating a willingness to provide liquidity under specific conditions, such as significant deviations in market liquidity indicators [6][7] Group 4 - Future innovations in liquidity support tools may include specialized liquidity facilities for systemically important non-bank institutions and temporary liquidity support tools during systemic market pressures [7] - The design of these tools aims to comprehensively address various risk scenarios, allowing for flexibility in providing support to individual institutions or entire markets [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is enhancing its macro-prudential management framework, focusing on the establishment of liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank financial institutions as a proactive measure to prevent systemic financial risks [1][2]. Group 1: Macro-Prudential Management Developments - The PBOC's macro-prudential management is transitioning to a "comprehensive coverage" and "prevention-first" paradigm, with a focus on liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank financial institutions [2][3]. - The PBOC's policy focus from 2023 to 2024 is on defensive regulation and risk prevention in key areas, while 2025 marked a shift towards enhancing mechanisms and expanding functions within the regulatory framework [3][4]. Group 2: Liquidity Support Mechanisms - The liquidity support mechanism for non-bank financial institutions is designed as an emergency arrangement for specific scenarios, reflecting a forward-looking approach to macro-prudential management [1][8]. - Experts suggest that the PBOC may explore liquidity support tools similar to the Federal Reserve's ONRRP, but the likelihood of such tools being implemented in China is low due to structural differences in the financial market [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Focus on Non-Bank Financial Institutions - Non-bank financial institutions manage trillions of yuan in assets and play a significant role in the bond, stock, and derivatives markets, making their regulation crucial [5]. - The PBOC aims to gradually expand its regulatory coverage to include more systemically important financial institutions, enhancing monitoring of non-bank institutions and cross-border capital flows [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions for Policy Tools - Future innovations in liquidity support tools may include specialized liquidity facilities for systemically important non-bank institutions, temporary liquidity support during systemic pressures, and expanded collateral options for non-bank institutions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The strict regulations on loan usage in China serve as a preventive risk management mechanism to avoid systemic financial risks, contrasting with more lenient practices in Western countries [1][2][7]. Group 1: Loan Usage Restrictions - In China, banks enforce strict loan usage restrictions to prevent funds from being diverted to high-risk areas, which could lead to market volatility and systemic risks [1][2]. - Regulatory bodies have been actively addressing issues such as business loans being misused for real estate purchases, highlighting the importance of maintaining financial stability [2][4]. - The principle of "designated use" is a key aspect of China's financial governance, ensuring that loans contribute to real economic value rather than speculative activities [2][9]. Group 2: Enforcement Mechanisms - Since 2009, China has implemented measures like "real loan, real payment" and "entrusted payment" to ensure that loans are used for their intended purposes [3]. - Banks require borrowers to provide valid contracts and directly pay suppliers, significantly reducing the likelihood of fund misappropriation [3]. - Advanced financial technologies have enhanced banks' ability to monitor fund flows, allowing for real-time tracking and verification of loan usage [3][8]. Group 3: Consequences of Misuse - Misusing loan funds constitutes a breach of contract, leading to severe penalties such as early repayment demands and increased interest rates [4]. - Borrowers may face long-term consequences, including negative impacts on credit scores and potential legal repercussions for fraudulent activities [4]. Group 4: International Comparisons - In contrast to China's strict regulations, Western countries like the U.S. allow more flexibility in personal unsecured loans, reflecting a mature credit scoring system and a culture of market self-regulation [5][6]. - However, certain loans in the U.S. and Europe still have specific usage restrictions, indicating that even in more liberal systems, there are safeguards against misuse [6]. Group 5: Governance Philosophies - The differences in loan usage management between China and the West illustrate two distinct financial governance philosophies: China's proactive risk prevention versus the West's reactive accountability [7]. - China's approach has proven effective in maintaining financial stability, especially during external shocks, while the Western model encourages individual initiative and financial innovation [7]. Group 6: Future Trends - The management of loan usage is evolving towards more intelligent and precise methods, leveraging technology to enhance regulatory practices [8]. - Future trends may include a shift from rigid restrictions to risk-based pricing, incentivizing compliant usage of funds while allowing for greater flexibility for trustworthy borrowers [8][9]. - The focus will be on guiding funds to their most productive uses, aligning with the goal of supporting the real economy and creating actual value [9].

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has continued to improve, but the momentum for further decline in interest rates is insufficient. The planned issuance of local government bonds may indicate that the supply pressure in February is advancing, and the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand have not been fully alleviated. The large - scale net injection of MLF this month has reduced the market's expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut in the first quarter. Additionally, although the equity market has cooled down under regulatory policy adjustments, market expectations remain optimistic, which may continue to suppress the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information to make a directional choice [105]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts fell by 0.34% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11% and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes of the TF and T main contracts increased, while those of the TS and TL main contracts decreased. The open interests of the TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while that of the T main contract increased [13][22][30]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%, with a full - year reduction of 963.6 billion yuan. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%, with a full - year reduction of 357.5 billion yuan. The balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a full - year reduction of 676.8 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and in December, the profit increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The National Tax Work Conference proposed to strengthen the standardization of tax incentives. The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US Senate failed to advance the government appropriation bill, and the US federal government faced a partial shutdown crisis [35]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields widened, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - period spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [43][49][53]. - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures' main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - week Shibor rates rose, while the overnight and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.59%. The yields of Treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the 1.7 - year yield falling by 0.3 - 1.8bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing to 1.81% and 2.26% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened [70][77]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1.7615 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.181 trillion yuan maturing, and 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, achieving a net injection of 530.5 billion yuan [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.026865 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 776.835 billion yuan, and a net financing of 250.029 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9678, with a cumulative appreciation of 251 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose, and the VIX index declined. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][96][101]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In Q4 2025, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth rate reached 5.0%. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. In December, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the full - year profit increased, reversing the three - year downward trend. China's economic growth showed a pattern of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand" and "strong supply and weak demand" [104]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US government appropriation bill failed to pass the vote, and the federal government faced a shutdown crisis. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in January, indicating that inflation was still high, employment growth was sluggish, but concerns about the downward risk of the labor force were alleviated [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank carried out 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 143.8 billion yuan on the day, and 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market this week, along with 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Monday [3][4] - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies and maintaining financial stability [4] - The stock index trends were divided, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating, and the market showed a rotation between sectors. The market's trading volume remained high, and it is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.36% with a - 0.39bp change, DR007 at 1.59% with a 4.28bp change, GC001 at 1.60% with a 12.50bp change, etc [3] - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.29% with a - 0.50bp change, the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58% with a 0.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26% with a 2.00bp change [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Data - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 rose 1.0% to 4775, IH当月 rose 1.9% to 3124, IC当月 fell 1.1% to 8531, and IM当月 fell 0.7% to 8351 [5] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.76% to 4753.9, the Shanghai 50 rose 1.65% to 3110.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.97% to 8517.8, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.8% to 8332.2 [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different changes, such as IF trading volume increasing by 11.8% to 159,804 and IF open interest decreasing by 0.7% to 323,557 [5] - **Sector Performance**: In the stock market, precious metals, mining, and brewing industries performed strongly, while electronic chemicals, semiconductors, etc. declined [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 7.23%, - 4.63%, - 0.97%, and 0.89% respectively [7] - **IH**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 7.09%, - 4.57%, - 1.80%, and 0.12% respectively [7] - **IC**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 2.60%, 0.02%, 1.67%, and 2.66% respectively [7] - **IM**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 3.82%, 0.28%, 4.12%, and 5.37% respectively [7]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic macro news remains calm, and the regulatory level focuses on "cooling down" the market to guide the stock index to show a "slow bull" pattern [6]. - The market trading volume stays above the high level of 2.5 trillion, indicating strong trading activity and liquidity - driven force [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic macro - level may be in a relatively calm period, and the market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. It is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.55 with a -3.50bp change, GC001 at 1.48 with a 12.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a -1.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a -0.21bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30 with a 0.25bp change, the 5 - year at 1.52 with a -1.25bp change, the 10 - year at 1.82 with a -1.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.24 with a 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3]. - This week, 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase in the central bank's open market will expire, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on Monday [4]. Stock Index Futures Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4718, SSE 50 rose 0.27% to 3061, CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 8601, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 8400 [5]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts: IF current month rose 0.3% to 4728, IH current month rose 0.2% to 3066, IC current month rose 0.8% to 8623, IM current month rose 0.3% to 8407 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures contracts: IF trading volume was 142,902 with a 0.0% change and its position increased by 5.0%; IH trading volume decreased by 6.6% to 63,381 and its position increased by 3.4%; IC trading volume decreased by 19.3% to 170,659 and its position decreased by 0.3%; IM trading volume decreased by 26.0% to 194,080 and its position decreased by 3.9% [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.9926 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, jewelry, mining, non - ferrous metals, small metals, and coal industries leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, medical devices, medical services, biological products, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF contracts: -3.30% for the current month, -2.25% for the next month, 0.06% for the current quarter, and 1.59% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IH contracts: -2.61% for the current month, -2.16% for the next month, -0.79% for the current quarter, and 0.75% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IC contracts: -4.07% for the current month, -1.73% for the next month, 0.79% for the current quarter, and 2.41% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IM contracts: -1.44% for the current month, 1.87% for the next month, 4.81% for the current quarter, and 6.06% for the next quarter [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit growth turned positive, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, the first positive growth since 2021, and the profit in December increased significantly by 5.3%. - The stock index showed a "V" shape intraday, and the volatility of stock index options decreased significantly. The market is expected to be mainly in a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival, and the short - term shock adjustment space is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Interest Rates** - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 4.98bp; DR007 closed at 1.58, up 0.95bp; GC001 closed at 1.36, down 1.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.62, unchanged; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, down 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29, up 0.75bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, unchanged; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83, up 0.45bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.22, down 2.00bp [4]. - The central bank conducted 4020 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [4]. - **Open Market Operations** - This week, 11810 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1583 billion, 3240 billion, 3635 billion, 2102 billion, and 1250 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. In addition, 2000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday [5]. - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies, predicting systemic financial risks, and maintaining the stability of the financial market [5]. - **Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets** - The CSI 300 closed at 4706, down 0.03%; the SSE 50 closed at 3052, up 0.09%; the CSI 500 closed at 8549, up 0.50%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8382, up 0.20%. The IF contract for the current month closed at 4715, unchanged; the IH contract for the current month closed at 3060, up 0.2%; the IC contract for the current month closed at 8554, up 0.8%; the IM contract for the current month closed at 8386, up 0.7% [6]. - The trading volume of IF was 142964, down 24.6; the trading volume of IH was 67869, down 19.8; the trading volume of IC was 211372, down 6.8; the trading volume of IM was 262400, down 5.3. The positions of IF were 310326, with an unspecified change; the positions of IH were 114497, down 3.5%; the positions of IC were 343302, down 0.2%; the positions of IM were 398403, up 1.0% [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 29217 billion yuan, a decrease of 3593 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, aerospace and insurance sectors rising, and coal, pharmaceutical commerce, energy metals, batteries and traditional Chinese medicine sectors falling [6]. - **Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount** - The IF premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 2.94%, - 1.87%, 0.15%, and 1.73% respectively. - The IH premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 3.89%, - 2.67%, - 1.31%, and 0.53% respectively. - The IC premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.94%, 0.11%, 2.21%, and 3.26% respectively. - The IM premium/discount rates for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts were - 0.63%, 2.09%, 4.93%, and 6.02% respectively [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indian government will significantly reduce tariffs on EU imports, which is expected to save about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean imports, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - The increase in US core capital goods orders in November exceeded expectations, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] - The short - term upward space of the bond market is limited, but there may be room for compression of the long - term spread. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [4][5] - The precious metals market has strong upward momentum, but the operation is difficult due to high volatility. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [6][8] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Daily News - India will gradually reduce the tariff on EU automobiles from 110% to 10% with a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year, and will completely cancel auto parts tariffs in 5 - 10 years. Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals will also be mostly removed. High tariffs on EU agricultural products will also be reduced or removed, saving about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies, judge potential financial risks, and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean cars, timber, and pharmaceuticals to 25%, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - US core capital goods orders in November increased by 0.7% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the treasury bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on South Korea had a muted impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan. The money market was loose, with DR001 down 5BP to 1.36% and DR007 up 1BP to 1.58% [4] - Since mid - January, treasury bonds have been on a recovery path, mainly driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations. At the beginning of the year, treasury futures were under pressure due to expectations of stable growth and concerns about supply. After the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market in mid - January, the impact of risk appetite on the bond market weakened. The central bank's net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF and the slower - than - expected issuance of local bonds have supported the bond market in the short term [4] - Currently, the bond market recovery is nearing its end, and the valuation is relatively neutral. Without new positive drivers, the short - term upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The long - term spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds is high, and investors can consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [5] 3.2.2. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector opened lower and moved higher, but with increased volatility and significant divergence. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.52% and 7.25% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 4.61% and 2.08% respectively [6] - In the past two weeks, the precious metals sector has shown strong performance. Domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen 17%, 65%, 32%, and 20% respectively since the beginning of the year. The short - term fluctuations of silver are affected by factors such as commodity position adjustment, Trump's "TACO" policy, and the issue of the Fed's independence [6] - Trump's "TACO" policy has little impact on the upward trend of precious metals. The issue of the Fed's independence remains complex, and the inventory shortage in the market continues. Although silver may have reached a short - term peak, the adjustment space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [7][8] 3.2.3. Container Shipping Index - On Tuesday, the main contract of the container shipping index closed slightly lower with reduced trading volume, and trading sentiment became more cautious. Before the Spring Festival, export transportation demand decreased, and shipping companies continued to cut prices to attract customers, putting pressure on the index. However, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and the potential for pre - policy - adjustment export rush may support the index. Fundamentally, the spot market faces pressure from pre - Spring Festival cargo collection and sufficient capacity supply, and the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3.3. Future Key Data - Tonight at 23:00, the US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of 89.1 and a forecast of 90.6 [13] - Tomorrow at 23:30, the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 will be released, with a previous value of 3.602 million barrels [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current large - capital continuous selling trend in the domestic market has not stopped, indicating that the regulatory authorities may have higher expectations for the current market cooling effect and there may be further cooling measures. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to intervene in IC after the callback and the opportunity for IH to stabilize and make up for the rise [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - policy**: Domestically, policies to expand inbound consumption will be introduced, a national digital trade demonstration zone will be established, and measures to promote consumption of large - durable goods such as cars and home appliances will be optimized. Overseas, in November 2025, US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month - on - month, and core durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month - on - month [1] - **Index adjustment**: In the spot market, A - share three major indexes fluctuated and adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.60 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91%. Industry sector indexes mostly declined, with non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal leading the gains, and national defense and military industry, automobiles, social services, and electronics leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 3.2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes rose collectively, with the Dow rising 0.64% to 49412.4 points [1] - **Futures market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined. The trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the positions of IH, IC, and IF increased simultaneously [2] 3.2 Strategy - Focus on the opportunity to intervene in IC after the callback and the opportunity for IH to stabilize and make up for the rise [3] 3.3 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][10][11] 3.4 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock index performance**: On January 26, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.91%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.09%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.57%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.97%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24% [13] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and the margin trading balance [6][14] 3.5 Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and trading volume**: The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased, with increases of 49067, 22590, 50384, and 54174 respectively, and the positions of IF, IH, IC increased by 28734, 9853, 2781 respectively, while the position of IM decreased by 1501 [15] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts changed, with the basis of IC and IM mostly declining [39] - **Inter - period spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different periods changed, with different trends in each period [44][46] - Also include various charts related to contract positions, position ratios, and net positions of foreign capital [6]