2025.07. 29 本文字数：3002，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 随着特朗普政府所谓"对等关税"的最后期限8月1日即将到来，美国周围筑起的贸易壁垒将又一次发生变 化，这对全球贸易和投资格局有何影响？ 多家国际机构、金融机构和智库近期均预警，美国贸易保护主义对全球经济的损害日益明显，当前美国的 整体关税水平已达到上世纪30年代以来的最高水平，约为今年年初特朗普政府上任时的六倍。彭博经济 研究的多位分析师估计，目前美国平均关税略低于13.5%，高于去年的2.5%左右。他们在27日的一份研 究报告中写道，美国若与欧盟达成协议，这一数字将达到16%。 对此，胡捷的解释是，国际能源等若干关键因素削弱了关税影响。具体而言，过去一年来，原油价格已从 80美元/桶左右降至约65美元/桶，能源作为基础性商品，其价格下降对抑制通胀具有显著作用。 他表示，同时美国自2022年3月启动的加息周期已持续三年有余，货币政策紧缩效应使得通胀整体处于下 行通道，尽管近半年来这一趋势有所波动，但总体下行态势未改。 "在这样的大背景下，再叠加能源价格下降，尽管存在关税政策的困扰，但整体来看影响有限。"他表示。 30日， ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the systemic risks in the insurance market due to investment uncertainties, which can lead to a loss of investor confidence and potential bankruptcies among financial institutions [2][3][5] - The article discusses the phenomenon of "herd behavior" among policyholders, where a lack of confidence can lead to mass withdrawals, posing a significant risk to insurance companies [3][4] - The research emphasizes the importance of understanding the transmission mechanisms of systemic risk within the insurance market, particularly in the context of shared risk exposures among companies [5][6] Group 2 - The study develops a risk contagion model based on the classic Diamond-Dybvig model, focusing on two insurance companies with shared risk exposure and examines policyholder withdrawal decisions under investment uncertainty [4][5] - The analysis reveals that the systemic risk in the insurance market is influenced by the asset allocation of insurance companies, the correlation of assets between companies, and the personal savings rates of policyholders [8][9][10] - The findings indicate that higher initial withdrawal rates and greater expected cash values of policies at withdrawal increase the systemic risk in the insurance market [12][14] Group 3 - The article concludes that systemic risk in the insurance market initially decreases with increasing risk asset scale but eventually increases, while it consistently decreases with higher expected returns on risk assets [16] - Recommendations for policy improvements include enhancing policyholder education to mitigate irrational withdrawal decisions and promoting prudent investment strategies among insurance companies [17]