Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's trade protectionism and tariffs on global trade and investment, highlighting the increasing uncertainty and potential economic repercussions for various industries and companies [1][2][10]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Economy - The overall tariff level in the U.S. has reached its highest since the 1930s, approximately six times higher than when the Trump administration took office, with an average tariff of just under 13.5% [1]. - By the end of 2027, the global economic impact of these tariffs is projected to reach $2 trillion, significantly higher than pre-trade war levels [2]. - The uncertainty caused by tariffs is expected to delay investment decisions, with companies adopting a wait-and-see approach until clarity on trade policies is achieved [2][10]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - Major U.S. corporations like General Motors, Dow, and Tesla have experienced earnings erosion due to tariffs, although significant inflation impacts have not yet materialized [4]. - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is predicted to slow to around 1%, with non-residential investment contributing minimally to economic growth [8][9]. - The decline in oil prices from $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has helped mitigate inflation, despite the ongoing tariff challenges [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - Companies reliant on the U.S. market, such as NatureSweet Tomatoes, are facing significant challenges due to new tariffs on imports from Mexico, which have stalled expansion plans [11][12]. - The automotive industry, particularly in Japan, is also feeling the strain from tariffs, with a notable 27% drop in car shipments to the U.S. in June [15]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is leading to a broader decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), with a projected decrease in global FDI following an 11% drop in 2024 [13][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a prolonged period of trade stagnation and investment fatigue is highlighted, with companies likely to delay restructuring decisions due to unclear policy directions [16]. - The overall economic indicators related to trade are expected to show contraction in both growth and volume this year [16].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the systemic risks in the insurance market due to investment uncertainties, which can lead to a loss of investor confidence and potential bankruptcies among financial institutions [2][3][5] - The article discusses the phenomenon of "herd behavior" among policyholders, where a lack of confidence can lead to mass withdrawals, posing a significant risk to insurance companies [3][4] - The research emphasizes the importance of understanding the transmission mechanisms of systemic risk within the insurance market, particularly in the context of shared risk exposures among companies [5][6] Group 2 - The study develops a risk contagion model based on the classic Diamond-Dybvig model, focusing on two insurance companies with shared risk exposure and examines policyholder withdrawal decisions under investment uncertainty [4][5] - The analysis reveals that the systemic risk in the insurance market is influenced by the asset allocation of insurance companies, the correlation of assets between companies, and the personal savings rates of policyholders [8][9][10] - The findings indicate that higher initial withdrawal rates and greater expected cash values of policies at withdrawal increase the systemic risk in the insurance market [12][14] Group 3 - The article concludes that systemic risk in the insurance market initially decreases with increasing risk asset scale but eventually increases, while it consistently decreases with higher expected returns on risk assets [16] - Recommendations for policy improvements include enhancing policyholder education to mitigate irrational withdrawal decisions and promoting prudent investment strategies among insurance companies [17]