中国百姓财富流向新趋势：从单一储蓄到多元配置 中等收入家庭： 奉行稳健至上的原则，将80%的资金配置在货币基金和债券基金等低风险产品上，剩余小部分资金尝试银行理财，不追求高收益，只求"不 亏本，收益略高于存款"。 低收入家庭： 仍以银行存款为主，但也开始尝试"小步快跑"式的理财方式，比如每月定投200元购买货币基金，逐步培养理财习惯，积少成多。 年轻一代（20-30岁）： 充满活力，敢于尝试，对股票基金、指数基金等高风险产品接受度较高，甚至会通过基金定投的方式参与市场，秉持"年轻就是资 本，可以适当冒点风险"的理念。 近年来，中国家庭的资金流向正在悄然发生深刻的变化。曾经"鸡蛋放在一个篮子里"的传统储蓄模式，正逐步被更加多元化的理财方式所取代。这种转变并 非偶然，而是与理财产品日益"接地气"、不同收入群体和年龄阶段人群理财观念的差异化以及统计口径的误读等多重因素共同作用的结果。 让我们先用一组直观的数据说话。2024年，货币基金和现金管理类理财产品规模激增2.3万亿元，稳健的债券型基金也实现了1.2万亿元的增长，而兼具保障 和收益的保险产品更是增长了2.8万亿元。这些庞大的数字清晰地表明，国民财富并非凭空消失 ...

据智通财经报道，根据央行最新发布的数据显示，在刚刚过去的7月，人民币住户存款，也就是老百姓的居民存款大减1.1万亿元，同比多减7800亿元；与 此同时，非银存款新增2.14万亿元，同比多增达到了1.39万亿元。 看到这则消息，很多人的第一反应，一定与股市有关，认为股市的反弹，激起了居民将资金"搬"入股市的欲望，存款开始通过"搬家"进入股市，成为股市 上涨的动力了。同时，相关金融机构也发出预警，提醒居民不要用信用卡炒股，否则后果"很严重"。 | | 图期 | 服动类型 | 胶动喷压 | 主题资金漂向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2007年 | 股市上涨预期 | 股权分置改革完成,股市强势上涨 Blog Book Book Start Start Start States | - 股票 · 勞商保证金账户 | | 规模存款途 1 | 2009年 | 利率下行取利 | 4万亿刺激政策落地,存款利突走 低,通胀预期抬头 | · 理财产品 - 房地产 | | | | | | · 股票一级市场 | | | 2014-2015年 | 利率下行驱动 + 股市上涨预期 | 降准降 ...

沪指今天盘中突破3800点。从资金的视角看，不少观点认为，这也与居民储蓄搬家有关。据央行数据， 7月住户存款同比多减7800亿元，非银存款同比多增1.39万亿元。记者注意到，至少有10家券商发布研 报认为，7月金融数据显示居民"存款搬家"或已开始，在2025年下半年尤为明显，居民存款搬家的前提 是权益市场基本面预期改善。 整体来看，这些研究观点核心呈现了五点内容。 一是为什么存款搬家？存款利率持续下行的当下，存款搬家是大势所趋，核心在于资本市场的突出表 现。 存款搬家并非新鲜事，而是居民资产配置随市场环境变化的常态表现。券商研报普遍认为，7月住户存 款减少的核心原因，是资金从银行体系转向非银金融机构，即当居民将存款转入证券账户、购买基金或 银行理财时，银行"住户存款"科目下降，"非银金融机构存款"则相应增加，形成典型的"跷跷板效应"。 追溯历史，2005年以来我国已出现过五次明显的居民存款搬家，分别是2006-2007年、2009年、2012- 2015年、2021年，以及当前的2024-2025年。国信证券通过梳理历轮数据发现，低利率是推动存款搬家 的重要因素，但资本市场表现才是核心驱动力。 从当前环境看， ...

Core Insights - The insurance distribution channel is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a fee-driven model to a value-driven approach, with banks enhancing services and integrating resources to find new opportunities [1][2][3] Group 1: Insurance Distribution Trends - The insurance agency business, once a major revenue source for banks, is facing pressure due to regulatory changes and fee reductions, prompting a need for banks to stabilize and grow their insurance distribution income [1][2] - In 2024, China’s insurance industry saw a premium income of 5.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year growth, indicating a robust demand for insurance products despite challenges in the distribution channels [2][3] Group 2: Customer Demand and Product Development - There is a strong and growing demand for insurance products, particularly in the context of an aging population and changing customer risk preferences, leading banks to develop tailored insurance solutions [4][5][6] - The introduction of the "TREE Asset Allocation Service System" by banks emphasizes a focus on stable investment and risk management, catering to customer needs for retirement and long-term financial planning [4][5] Group 3: Technological Integration and Service Enhancement - Banks are leveraging digital capabilities to enhance insurance distribution, combining online and offline services to provide a comprehensive customer experience [7][8][11] - The use of AI in insurance distribution allows for personalized recommendations and efficient service delivery, improving customer engagement and satisfaction [7][8][11] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Development - The number of wealth management partners for banks has been increasing, with over 160 partnerships established, enhancing the collaborative ecosystem for insurance distribution [13][14] - By integrating resources from various insurance companies, banks aim to create a more efficient and customer-centric service model, aligning with their strategic vision of being a "value bank" [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in China, where residents are shifting their savings from banks to non-bank financial institutions and capital markets due to declining deposit interest rates and improving stock market performance [3][4][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Deposit Migration - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates is a significant factor driving deposit migration, as residents seek higher returns in capital markets [3][4]. - Historical patterns show that deposit migration has occurred multiple times since 2005, with low interest rates being a key driver, but capital market performance being the core motivator [3][4]. - As of 2022, the interest rates for savings accounts have dropped to 0.2%-0.3%, prompting residents to look for better investment opportunities [3][4]. Group 2: Potential Scale of Funds Released - Estimates suggest that the current round of deposit migration could release over 5 trillion yuan into the capital markets, based on excess savings and maturing deposits [6][7]. - Specifically, over 30 trillion yuan in excess savings has been accumulated since 2018, with 5 trillion yuan formed post-2022 likely to be more flexible for investment [7]. - By 2025, over 90 trillion yuan in deposits are expected to mature, with 5%-10% potentially seeking higher returns, translating to a possible outflow of 4.5 trillion to 9 trillion yuan [7]. Group 3: Impact on A-shares - The relationship between deposit migration and A-shares is complex, with historical data indicating that stock market performance often precedes significant deposit migration [8][10]. - Past trends show that deposit migration typically accelerates in the later stages of a bull market, suggesting caution as this could indicate a market peak [10]. - Current data indicates that the ratio of household deposits to total stock market value remains high, suggesting ample room for wealth reallocation into equities [10]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Trends - Initially, funds from deposit migration are expected to flow into stable assets such as bank wealth management products and money market funds, reflecting residents' risk aversion [11][12]. - Over time, as market conditions stabilize, a gradual shift towards equity assets is anticipated, supported by favorable policies and market performance [14][18]. - By 2025, it is projected that approximately 70% of the migrating funds will be allocated to stable assets, with 25% directed towards equities [12][14]. Group 5: Conditions for Future Deposit Migration - Four key conditions for a new round of deposit migration have been identified: declining deposit rates, liquidity expansion, emerging asset profitability, and supportive policies [15][17]. - Historical patterns indicate that deposit migration often follows a significant stock market rally, with a lag as residents confirm market trends [16][17]. - The current environment shows that all conditions for a potential new wave of deposit migration are in place, suggesting an increasing likelihood of funds flowing into the capital markets [17][18].

| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2025-08-21 09:00——2025-08-22 15:00） 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 行业跟踪报告：物流仓储《快递单价降幅收窄，反内卷持续扩散》2025-08-22 | 2 | |  | 行业策略：新能源发电《光伏行业研究方法》2025-08-22 | 3 | |  | 行业策略：建材《回归常识，探寻本源》2025-08-21 | 3 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：机器人《Figure 人形机器人实现无遮挡行走，能力边界持续突破》2025-08-21 | 3 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：乳制品《肉奶共振，弹性可期》2025-08-21 | 4 | |  | 海外报告：富途控股（FUTU.O）《净入金强劲，Crypto 持续开拓》2025-08-22 | 5 | |  | 公司半年报点评：巴比食品（605338）《经营势能向上，业绩超预期》2025-08-22 | 5 | |  | 海外报告：北森控股（9669）《HCM S ...

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights a significant increase in government debt financing, with a net financing of 200.9 billion in week 33 and 560.7 billion in week 34, totaling 9.8 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 4.6 trillion [8][9] - The broad deficit has reached 8.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 67.2% as of week 33 [8] Company and Industry Analysis Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 14.076 billion HKD for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, and a net profit of 8.519 billion HKD, up 39.1% [14][15] - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for H1 2025 was 222.8 billion HKD, reflecting a growth of 122.1% [15] - The EBITDA margin reached 77.7%, indicating significant operational efficiency [16] AIA Group (01299.HK) - AIA achieved a post-tax operating profit of 3.609 billion USD for H1 2025, marking a 12% increase per share [18][19] - The new business value reached 2.838 billion USD, a 14% increase year-on-year, with notable growth in markets like Thailand [19][20] - The company returned 3.71 billion USD to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a dividend per share of 0.49 HKD, up 10% [20] WanGuo Gold Group (03939.HK) - The company reported a revenue of approximately 1.24 billion CNY for H1 2025, a 33.7% increase, and a net profit of about 601 million CNY, up 136.3% [21][22] - The gold production from the Solomon Islands increased by 29.7%, driven by improved processing and recovery rates [22] NEXTEV (01316.HK) - NEXTEV's revenue for H1 2025 was 2.242 billion USD, a 7% increase, with a net profit of 63 million USD, reflecting a 304% year-on-year growth [24][25] - The company is focusing on electric power steering systems, with a projected market growth from 38 billion CNY to 48 billion CNY by 2028 [25][26] Qifeng Co., Ltd. (603997.SH) - The company reported a total revenue of 10.52 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.39%, but a net profit increase of 189.51% [27][28] - The seating business saw a doubling in revenue, indicating strong demand and operational improvements [28][29] Yanjinpuzi (002847.SZ) - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.94 billion CNY for H1 2025, a 19.6% increase, with a net profit of 370 million CNY, up 16.7% [30][31] - The konjac product line saw a revenue increase of 155.1%, significantly contributing to overall growth [31][32] Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 3.63 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 7.01%, but a net profit increase of 9.71% [35][36] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 86.7% [36][37] Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 13.56 billion CNY for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.29%, with a net profit of 1.93 billion CNY, down 12.8% [38][39]

多项核心指标实现双位数增长，利润增速进展顺利。截至 2025 年中期，友邦 保险实现税后营运溢利 36.09 亿美元，每股增加 12%，显示出集团在盈利质量 上的持续改善。上半年，公司产生的基本自由盈余每股上升 10%，达到 35.69 亿美元，反映出集团强劲的现金生成能力。管理层重申 2023 年至 2026 年每股 税后营运溢利复合年增长率 9%至 11%的目标，目前进展顺利。 上半年，公司实现新业务价值 28.38 亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比增长 14%。 公司在亚洲多个市场的业务拓展成效显著。中国内地市场在计入经济假设变动 后新业务价值略有下滑 4%，但若剔除该因素，基本增长达 10%，第二季度增速 加快至 15%，显示出业务韧性和复苏动力。香港、泰国、新加坡等主要市场均 录得显著增长，其中泰国市场因行业规则变动前的短期销售推动，新业务价值 大幅提升 35%。此外，集团的新业务价值利润率提升 3.4 个百分点至 57.7%， 体现出产品组合优化和定价策略的有效性。 证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 友邦保险（01299.HK） 优于大市 利润持续兑现，股东回报稳健 "最优秀代理"渠道新业务价值 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 友邦保险（01299.HK） 优于大市 利润持续兑现，股东回报稳健 多项核心指标实现双位数增长，利润增速进展顺利。截至 2025 年中期，友邦 保险实现税后营运溢利 36.09 亿美元，每股增加 12%，显示出集团在盈利质量 上的持续改善。上半年，公司产生的基本自由盈余每股上升 10%，达到 35.69 亿美元，反映出集团强劲的现金生成能力。管理层重申 2023 年至 2026 年每股 税后营运溢利复合年增长率 9%至 11%的目标，目前进展顺利。 上半年，公司实现新业务价值 28.38 亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比增长 14%。 公司在亚洲多个市场的业务拓展成效显著。中国内地市场在计入经济假设变动 后新业务价值略有下滑 4%，但若剔除该因素，基本增长达 10%，第二季度增速 加快至 15%，显示出业务韧性和复苏动力。香港、泰国、新加坡等主要市场均 录得显著增长，其中泰国市场因行业规则变动前的短期销售推动，新业务价值 大幅提升 35%。此外，集团的新业务价值利润率提升 3.4 个百分点至 57.7%， 体现出产品组合优化和定价策略的有效性。 "最优秀代理"渠道新业务价值 ...