Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][5][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in resident wealth allocation due to a low interest rate environment, leading to a reallocation of funds from traditional savings to riskier assets [1][12][19]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized by a transition from slow outflows to a more concentrated release of funds, indicating a rapid increase in market risk appetite [2][29]. - The report anticipates that the pulse-like release of deposits will provide substantial incremental capital to the A-share and Hong Kong markets, potentially exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first quarter [3][12]. Summary by Sections Deposit Low-Interest Environment - Deposit rates have fallen below 2%, prompting residents to seek higher-yielding investments [1][17]. - The decline in deposit attractiveness is pushing savings towards wealth management products and other financial instruments [13][19]. Wealth Management Transformation - There is a notable shift in asset allocation from bank deposits to non-bank financial products, with household deposits decreasing while non-bank financial institution deposits are increasing [20][22]. - The capital market's performance since June 2025 has catalyzed this shift, with the A-share market experiencing significant gains, thereby attracting more funds [20][24]. Changes in Deposit Migration - The report notes that the upcoming maturity of a significant volume of deposits, particularly three-year fixed deposits, will lead to a concentrated outflow of funds, enhancing risk appetite [29][33]. - The breaking of the "rigid redemption" of wealth management products has led to a reassessment of risk among conservative investors, prompting a return to safer deposit options [29][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on non-bank financial institutions that are likely to benefit from the ongoing deposit migration trend, particularly in the insurance and brokerage sectors [3][43]. - Specific companies highlighted for their strong potential include China Life, Ping An, and major brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][43].

据统计，2025年合计7家上市银行被险资举牌。银行股被险资举牌，既有险资的长期价值投资需要，也 有银行股渴求长期战略股东的需要，两者的结合，实为股权层面的金融强强联合，未来险资持股银行股 的比例和金额还会不断增加，这同时也是投资者通过保险产品无风险投资的一种极佳渠道。 从险资的角度来看，举牌银行股符合其长期价值投资的需求。保险资金具有规模庞大、期限较长的特 点，追求的是稳定且可持续的投资回报。银行作为金融体系的核心组成部分，拥有稳健的经营模式和相 对稳定的现金流。险资举牌银行股，能够借助银行的稳定收益，实现自身资产的保值增值，为保险合同 的长期履行提供坚实的资金保障。而且，银行股通常具有较高的股息率，能够为险资带来持续的现金分 红，进一步增强相关保险产品的吸引力。 对于银行股而言，险资的举牌同样意义非凡。银行在发展过程中，不仅需要充足的资金支持，更需要具 有战略眼光和长期价值投资的股东。险资的进入，为银行带来了稳定的长期资本，有助于银行优化股权 结构，提升公司治理水平。长期战略股东的参与，能够促使银行更加注重长远发展，避免短期行为，在 战略规划、风险管理等方面提供有益的建议和支持。同时，险资的举牌也向市场传递 ...

面对2026年"开门红"行情，多位受访人士表示，A股市场春季行情有望逐步展开，预计未来或仍将延续 震荡慢牛走势。 "春躁行情"或已开启 中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 1月6日，A股持续活跃，沪指走出13连阳，报收4083.67点，再创十年新高。 同时，A股出现普涨行情，全市场超4100只个股上涨，其中有143只个股涨停，连续两日超百股涨停。 三大指数方面，沪指涨1.5%，深成指涨1.4%，创业板指涨0.75%。 成交量方面，量能持续放大，沪深两市成交额2.81万亿元，较上一个交易日放量2602亿元。 从板块来看，商业航天持续表现，十余只成分股涨停。金融、化工、有色等表现突出。 机构看好科技成长的结构性机会 在上述背景下，胡启聪展望2026年第一季度，认为结构性行情或仍有空间。 "海外降息落地，悲观预期有所修复，叠加整体流动性仍然充裕，市场在活跃的氛围下仍具备做多的机 会。从具体方向上，看好科技成长的结构性机会。接下来AI领域可能即将迎来重磅大模型的升级迭 代，有望为行业带来催化。"胡启聪如此预判。 鹏扬基金相关人士进一步就2026年的投资布局提示，近期生产数据反季节性上行，市场布局2026年"开 门红"预期加强。 ...

展望2026年，市场人士认为，政策将持续支持保险公司强化资产负债管理，叠加居民对保险产品热情延 续以及资本市场上涨可期，上市险企资产负债共振向好有望延续。在业绩增长与估值提升的"戴维斯双 击"预期下，保险板块也有望持续受到资金关注。 实际上，在负债端减压和资产端松绑的政策影响下，保险板块持续走强，2025年全年保险板块涨幅为 26.42%。 负债端方面，预定利率下调、发展分红险等举措减轻了保险公司的负债成本压力，尤其是在市场利率持 续下行环境中，保险产品日益成为居民配置的重要资产。得益于居民"存款搬家"，负债端保险销售有望 保持增长趋势。 资产端方面，上调权益资产投资比例，调降股票投资相关风险因子，扩大保险资金长期投资试点，开展 黄金投资试点……2025年以来，政策持续为险资投资"松绑"，打开空间与拓宽渠道并行，鼓励险资"长 钱长投"。保险公司不断加强多元资产配置，尤其是增加权益资产配置，受益于2025年权益市场表现亮 眼，从而获得丰厚投资收益。2025年前三季度，A股五大上市险企合计实现归母净利润约4260.39亿元， 创下历史同期新高。 1月5日，A股保险板块上涨6.17%，居申万二级行业分类首位。个股方 ...

2025年最后一天，国家金融监督管理总局济宁监管分局发布一纸罚单，中国平安（601318）人寿保险股份有限公司(以下简称"平安人寿")辖下的济宁市邹 城支公司、金乡支公司及其相关责任人因多项违规行为，合计被处以14.2万元的罚款。 根据处罚信息公开表，平安人寿济宁市邹城支公司因"欺骗投保人、承诺给予投保人合同约定外利益"被罚款10万元，两名相关责任人分别被警告并罚款 1.2万元、警告并罚款2万元；平安人寿济宁市金乡支公司因"代理人管理不规范"被警告并罚款0.5万元，相关责任人被警告并罚款0.5万元。 处罚信息显示，平安人寿两家县支公司的违规行为主要集中于销售误导和代理人管理两大典型领域。邹城支公司及其两名管理人员因"欺骗投保人"和"承 诺给予保险合同约定以外的利益"受罚，这类违规违法行为通常表现为夸大保险产品收益、混淆概念、或通过赠送礼品、返现等不当激励方式诱导消费者 购买，严重侵害了消费者的知情权和公平交易权，是监管机构长期重点打击的对象；金乡支公司则因"代理人管理不规范"而被处以警告及罚款，代理人管 理的规范与否直接关系到销售行为的合规性和公司风险的管控水平，管理不规范往往与误导销售相伴相生，为公司违规行 ...

首先，金融服务适老化改造远不止于保留现金窗口，金融机构应主动优化物理网点，增设清晰引导设施 并确保员工具备辅助老年客户的能力。同时，手机银行的老年模式也不能停留在简单放大字体上，而是 要在交互上做减法，比如界面简单实用、语音指引清晰，并且能够轻松转接人工客服。此外，在产品设 计上，应开发真正符合老年人生命周期需求的金融产品，名称易懂、结构透明、风险揭示充分，让他们 不再稀里糊涂买产品。 金融机构应当认识到，服务好老年人，不仅是履行社会责任的需要，更是开拓银发经济蓝海的必然选 择。因此，需要将适老化理念深度融入产品创新与服务流程，而不能仅仅视作监管要求下的被动合规。 监管部门在鼓励创新的同时，也应强化对老年人金融消费权益的保护，对产品适销性和营销行为进行更 精准的规范与监督。 不拒收现金，是金融服务对老年人保持的基本尊重。但每位老人真正期待的，是在这个数字时代不被抛 弃、不被敷衍。金融机构要想真正答好这道民生考题，需要付出更多耐心、巧思与诚意，让服务从可用 到好用、从有温度到有深度。 近期发布的《人民币现金收付及服务规定》提出，银行业金融机构应为老年人、残障人士、境外人士提 供现金业务办理便利，充分考虑其需求与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector for 2026, indicating strong upward momentum for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a significant upward breakthrough in 2026, driven by improved chip structure, reduced turnover rates, and a favorable valuation environment. The sector is currently undervalued compared to its earnings potential [4]. - The insurance sector shows signs of stabilization post the interest rate switch, with premium growth expected to improve in 2026, particularly in the life insurance segment [4]. - Regulatory changes, including the completion of public fund fee reforms, are anticipated to benefit the non-bank financial sector by reducing costs for investors and enhancing market participation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,629.94 with a decline of 0.59% over the week. The non-bank index fell by 1.84%, with brokerages and insurance indices declining by 1.37% and 3.33%, respectively [8][10]. Non-Bank Financial Insights - The brokerage sector's index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.78 percentage points in 2025, with a total decline of 2.05% for the year. In contrast, major A-share indices saw significant gains [4]. - The insurance sector's original premium income reached 5.76 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. The life insurance segment grew by 9.2% during the same period [4][31]. Investment Analysis - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming market revaluation, with a focus on the growth of new business premiums [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new rules for public real estate investment trusts (REITs), expanding financing options for commercial properties [21]. - The completion of the public fund fee reform is expected to lower overall fund costs by approximately 20%, saving investors around 51 billion yuan annually [22].

告别"坦途"：从医疗到金融的跨界求索 李潘蔓就曾是这条路上的行者。然而，现实与理想的距离，往往只有亲历者才能丈量。2008年入职后，她很快发现，"白衣天使"的光环之下，是旁人难以 想象的高压。急诊室的彻夜灯火、病房里的瞬息万变、日复一日的超负荷运转，以及那条几乎透明的、论资排辈的晋升窄梯……这一切，让她感到窒息。 她曾目睹过无数家庭在疾病面前的脆弱，也深刻理解一份保障的意义。但体制内的按部就班，让她感到个人的价值被稀释。她内心的声音日益清晰："太 过确定的未来，反而让人感受不到眼中有光的憧憬。我不想在20多岁时，就清晰地看到50岁的自己。" 在许多人眼中，从知名医学院毕业，进入理想的医院，成为一名"白衣天使"，无疑是踏上了一条令人羡慕的"坦途"。 她不愿被"专业围城"所困。医生转行，几乎等同于从零开始。但怀着"趁年轻去创造更多可能"的决心，李潘蔓毅然脱下了白袍，令人意外地投身于一个全 新领域——财务。 这是一次彻底的"归零"。凭借学医时练就的严谨、细致与超强抗压能力，她在一家大型连锁餐饮机构的财务岗上迅速成长。短短几年，她便从一个对借贷 记账法一无所知的新人，晋升为备受认可的主管。2013年，一个升任华南区区 ...

证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 开门红 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2026年01月04日 相关研究 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善。春节较晚，出口订单前置，支撑岁末年 初经济验证。春季没有下行风险的格局再强化，且有利于行情演绎的窗口连续不断。上 证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深。 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风 ...

Group 1 - The "Spring Market" is gradually unfolding, with both internal and external environments showing positive changes, including favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies [2][3] - The report suggests that the focus for investment should be on growth sectors, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to attract significant capital [3][4] - Key investment directions for January include AI industry chains, emerging industries, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights specific companies as top investment picks, including North China Innovation (机械), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (机械), Wanhua Chemical (能源化工), Chipbond Technology (电子), Ping An Insurance (非银), Zijin Mining (煤炭有色钢铁), Giant Network (传媒互联网), AVIC High-Tech (军工), Sanhua Intelligent Control (电新), and Kaiter (北交所) [7][11] - North China Innovation is expected to benefit from increased domestic equipment adoption and the expansion of storage and AI chip production [14][20] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the U.S. solar expansion due to a significant gap in battery production capacity [23][30] - Wanhua Chemical is projected to strengthen its market position in MDI and TDI, with expected price increases due to supply constraints [33][35] - Chipbond Technology is set to benefit from the growing demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment driven by AI [41][42] - Ping An Insurance is anticipated to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV) and dividend yield, supported by its insurance operations [45][46] - Zijin Mining is expected to see price increases in gold and copper, with a clear growth path in production [49][50] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to show significant potential for long-term growth and profitability [56][57] - AVIC High-Tech is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace composite materials as the C919 enters mass production [58][59] - Sanhua Intelligent Control is expected to see growth from its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage [65][66] - Kaiter is projected to benefit from the automotive electronics sector and its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling markets [72][78]