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估值周观察(7月第2期):“反内卷”与地产估值抬升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-12 14:30
Global Market Overview - The global equity markets showed mixed performance with moderate valuation changes during the week of July 7-11, 2025. The Asia-Pacific region experienced significant divergence, with South Korea leading gains and India lagging behind. Japan saw a slight decline, while Singapore and Hong Kong indices rose [2][8] - In terms of valuation, the German DAX's PE ratio expanded by 1.65x, approaching historical highs, while the French CAC40 increased by 1.73% but saw a PE decrease of 0.64x, indicating earnings upgrades. Other indices in Hong Kong, except for the Hang Seng Technology Index, maintained high valuation levels [2][8] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share core indices mostly rose with moderate valuation expansion. The CSI 1000 and National CSI 2000 led the gains with increases of 2.36% and 2.29%, respectively. Small-cap stocks outperformed, with various small-cap indices rising over 2%. The large-cap value index slightly declined due to bank sector pressures [21][22] - As of July 11, 2025, the PE, PB, PS ratios of major A-share indices were positioned between the 96%-100% percentile for the past year, while the PCF ratio was between 90%-93%. Overall, large-cap growth indices showed superior percentile levels compared to large-cap value indices [22][23] Industry Performance - Most primary industries experienced gains with moderate valuation expansions. The real estate sector led with a 6.12% increase, followed by non-bank financials at 3.96%. The banking sector saw a slight decline of 1%. Other sectors like steel and building materials continued their upward trend [42][44] - Valuation changes were generally consistent with stock price movements, with the PE of computing and real estate sectors expanding by over 2x, while steel, media, and comprehensive sectors saw PE expansions exceeding 1x [42][44] Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector demonstrated superior valuation attractiveness. The banking sector's valuations are at historical highs, with PE, PB, and PS ratios nearing 100% in both 1-year and 3-year dimensions. In contrast, essential consumer sectors like food and beverage, and agriculture show significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year/5-year average valuation percentiles at 11.13% / 6.68% and 27.20% / 19.14%, respectively [44]