机构：长江证券 研究员：蔡方羿/米雁翔 近日，波兰Glo 官网发布Glo Hilo（一体式）和Glo Hilo Plus（分体式）加热不燃烧器具（分别有7 种颜 色选择），以及13 种口味烟支（8 种茶基调味+5 种烟草味）。分体式/一体式器具定价分别为289/149 波兰兹罗提，约合人民币约578/298 元；烟支定价19.99 波兰兹罗提/包，约合人民币约40 元/包。 事件评论 雾化电子烟：美国加强非法市场监管，合规产品迎来增长机遇，公司雾化业务修复或好于预期。1）美 国执法层面：9 月10 日，HHS 宣布FDA 和CBP 查获470 万件未经授权的电子烟产品，估计零售价值达 8650 万美元，是美国迄今规模最大的电子烟查获行动；2）从我国电子烟对美出口表现看：2025 年5-8 月，我国电子烟对美出口金额合计同比下降约23%，估计主要受监管政策收紧和关税影响。3）欧洲市 场：在一次性禁令推行背景下，公司通过快速推出创新合规新品满足市场需求，预计业务增长&产品结 构改善有望延续。 基本面趋势好、底部坚定看好全球新烟趋势下公司的成长潜力。1）雾化烟：主业修复趋势明确，有望 受益行业监管转向和大客户市占率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The Glo Hilo new market is steadily advancing, with the vaporization business expected to recover rapidly. The Glo Hilo products have been launched in Poland and Japan, with positive initial feedback and promotional activities in place [10][10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from regulatory changes in the U.S. market, which may lead to growth opportunities for its vaporization business [10] - The overall growth potential of the company is strong, driven by the recovery of its main business and the expansion of its HNB (Heated Not Burned) products [10] Summary by Relevant Sections HNB Business - Glo Hilo has launched in Japan and Poland, with positive sales feedback and a variety of product offerings including 13 flavors of tobacco and tea-based sticks [6][10] - The marketing strategy includes promotional offers to boost initial sales [10] Vaporization Business - The U.S. market is seeing increased regulation of illegal products, which may provide a favorable environment for compliant products [10] - The company has introduced innovative compliant products to meet market demand, which is expected to drive growth [10] Fundamental Trends - The recovery trend in the vaporization business is clear, with expectations of accelerated growth due to improved market share among major clients [10] - The company anticipates significant growth in the HNB segment, with a current global market penetration of only about 6% [10] - Long-term growth opportunities are also present in medical and specialty vaporization products [10] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.3 billion, 2.04 billion, and 2.89 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 78, 50, and 35 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook amid evolving market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 reached 6.01 billion, an 18.3% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million, a 30.8% decline. Adjusted net profit after stock incentive expenses was 740 million, down 2.1% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.2 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 225.1%, significantly higher than the 38.7% in 1H24, indicating increased shareholder returns [1]. Market Trends - The ToB revenue grew by 19.5% to 4.739 billion, driven by strong performance in Europe and potential improvements in the U.S. market due to stricter regulations [1]. - In Europe, revenue surged by 38% to 2.73 billion, benefiting from regulatory changes that favored compliant companies [1]. - U.S. revenue increased by 1.5% to 1.89 billion, with expectations of continued improvement as enforcement tightens [1]. - Domestic revenue, however, saw a decline of 6.1% to 120 million [1]. Product Development - The ToC revenue rose by 14.1% to 1.274 billion, with significant growth in the APV segment, particularly in Europe, where new product launches are driving user conversion [2]. - The APV revenue in Europe and the U.S. was 1.07 billion and 170 million, respectively, with declines of 15.1% and 6.7% [2]. - The nebulization beauty segment experienced a remarkable growth of 2595% to 30.618 million, with over 10,000 C-end users and more than 100 B-end partnerships established [2]. Profitability and Costs - The overall gross margin remained stable, decreasing slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 37.3%. However, the net profit margin fell by 5.9 percentage points to 8.3%, and adjusted for stock incentive expenses, it decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 12.3% [2]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points to 8.2% due to heightened investment in self-owned brands, while R&D expense ratio decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 12% [2]. - Management expenses rose significantly by 15.5 percentage points to 22.2%, primarily due to increased stock incentive costs [2]. Growth Outlook - The HNB segment is expected to accelerate globally, with Glo Hilo's market share in Japan increasing by 1.5% during its sales period, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - The regulatory environment for vaping products in Europe and the U.S. is expected to lead to a more standardized industry, allowing the company to recover market share and continue growing [3]. - The company is also focusing on developing nebulization medical products and expanding its nebulization beauty segment domestically, which opens up additional growth opportunities [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and industry outperform rating, with a target price reflecting a 4% upside from the current stock price [3].