证券研究报告·公司深度报告 2026 年 3 月 24 日 江海证券研究发展部 消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 投资评级： 买入（首次） | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 329.54 | | A 股股本(百万股) | 329.54 | | B/H 股股本(百万股) | -/- | | A 股流通比例(%) | 90.65 | | 12 个月最高/最低(元) | 10.76/6.57 | | 第一大股东 | 牡丹江恒丰纸业集团有限责 任公司 | | 第一大股东持股比例(%) | 27.14 | 上证综指/沪深 300 3813.28/4418.00 投资要点： | 财务预测 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,648.08 | 2,773.51 | 3,102.85 | 3,523.86 | 4,094.18 | | 增长率（%） | 7.82% | 4.74% | 11 ...

消息面上，华宝国际此前发布公告，预计子公司华宝股份（300741）年度归母净利润为6500-9500万， 同比扭亏为盈。。2024年度，华宝股份业绩亏损主要由于食用香精-烟草用香精相关资产组计提商誉减 值损失。2025年度，华宝股份商誉不存在进一步重大减值风险。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，华宝国际作为香精香料龙头，业务逐步摆脱单一客户依赖，有望 进入2.0阶段。爆珠业务短期高增长，薄片业务长期弹性大，随全球HNB市场扩张有望持续增长。食品 配料印尼工厂投产覆盖东南亚市场，国内奕方公司扭亏为盈，未来有望保持较高增速。若国内HNB放 开且自主品牌NUSO发展，或成为潜在增量。 华宝国际(00336)尾盘涨近7%，截至发稿，涨6.73%，报4.44港元，成交额3238.63万港元。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The notes focus on **Smoore International**, a key player in the **Heat-Not-Burn (HNB)** tobacco product industry, particularly in relation to its upcoming product launch in Serbia and its competitive positioning against other tobacco companies like PMI and British American Tobacco [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments - **Upcoming Product Launch**: Smoore International is set to unveil its new product, PLUS, on February 2, which is expected to address previous user pain points and enhance performance across multiple dimensions [1]. - **HNB Market Dynamics**: The global penetration rate of HNB products is accelerating, highlighting the urgent need for tobacco companies to transform. Currently, only PMI has a complete HNB research and production chain, while British American Tobacco and others rely on external suppliers [1]. - **Innovation Challenges**: The high difficulty of HNB research and innovation, compounded by PMI's strong patent protections, results in a scarcity of mature commercial solutions globally. Many new solutions are still far from mass production [1]. - **Smoore's Competitive Edge**: HILO, Smoore's product, is the only one comparable to IQOS and has completed an innovation upgrade within a year. This solidifies Smoore's position as a core technology provider in the HNB market [2]. - **Market Growth Potential**: The company is expected to replicate the growth curve seen in the vaping sector, with significant growth potential as it attracts more customers and strengthens ties with existing partners like British American Tobacco [2]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: Upcoming reports from British American Tobacco, Smoore's annual report, new customer acquisitions, and regulatory changes in the U.S. vaping market are anticipated to drive growth. Notably, Walgreens has resumed electronic cigarette sales for the first time since 2019, indicating a more favorable regulatory environment [2]. - **Valuation Insights**: The value of Smoore is estimated to be between **70-80 billion HKD**, suggesting a strong investment opportunity, especially for those looking to buy at lower prices [2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The urgency for transformation in the tobacco industry is underscored by the increasing global demand for HNB products, which may lead to a shift in market dynamics and competitive strategies among major players [1]. - The mention of regulatory changes in the U.S. market could signal a broader trend towards normalization and acceptance of vaping products, which may benefit Smoore and its peers in the long run [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on several sectors, indicating a recovery or growth potential in areas such as new tobacco, packaging, and AI-related products [6][11][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of seasonal marketing strategies in the collectible toy sector, particularly around Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus launching limited edition products [7][8]. - In the new tobacco sector, there is a strong push for innovation and international expansion, with major players increasing their investments in heated tobacco products (HNB) and electronic cigarettes [11][12]. - The home furnishing market is experiencing a downturn in domestic sales, but there are signs of recovery in exports, particularly to Southeast Asia [13][14]. - The packaging industry is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in downstream demand, supported by growth in consumer goods sectors [15][16]. - The pet food industry is facing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios, but there are opportunities for consolidation among listed companies [21]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Collectible Toys - Focus on seasonal marketing and the integration of AI in toys, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus leading the charge [7][8]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards cross-industry collaborations and enhanced IP value [7]. 1.2 New Tobacco - The report notes a projected decline in electronic cigarette exports in 2025, with a focus on the need for innovation in the domestic market [11]. - Major tobacco companies are increasing their investments in HNB products, indicating a significant growth potential in this segment [12]. 1.3 Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are under pressure, with a notable decline in new and second-hand home transactions [13]. - Export growth is observed, particularly to Southeast Asia, suggesting a potential recovery in international demand [14]. 1.4 Packaging - The packaging sector is expected to see a steady recovery in demand, supported by growth in consumer goods [15][16]. - Price adjustments in raw materials like aluminum may impact packaging companies' operations [16]. 1.5 Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector is focusing on high-end products and international expansion, with companies like Procter & Gamble seeing mixed results [17]. - The AI glasses market is shifting focus from VR to AI wearable technology, with major companies like Apple and Meta adjusting their strategies [17]. 1.6 Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi is initiating a share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its business outlook [18]. - The company is also focusing on its smartphone and automotive segments, with a strong emphasis on high delivery targets for 2026 [19][20]. 1.7 Pet Food and Supplies - Increased competition in the pet food sector is leading to higher sales expenses, but opportunities for consolidation exist among listed companies [21]. - New developments in pet healthcare services are emerging, indicating growth potential in this area [21]. 1.8 Silver Economy - The government is implementing a subsidy program for elderly care services, which may boost demand in the silver economy sector [25][26]. 1.9 AI and 3D Printing - The 3D printing industry is experiencing significant growth, with exports increasing substantially [27]. - Innovations in 3D printing technology are expected to drive further expansion in this sector [27]. 1.10 AI Mattresses - A new startup focusing on sleep health technology is gaining attention, with plans to develop a range of AI-integrated sleep products [32]. 1.11 Two-Wheel Vehicles - The two-wheeler market is recovering as major manufacturers comply with new regulations, leading to a resurgence in product offerings [33][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that British American Tobacco (BTI.US) is expected to see accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, benefiting from a favorable industry environment and product lifecycle expansion [1] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment is showing positive feedback for new products, with a goal for global expansion in 2026, despite a slight decline in market share for the Glo brand in 2025 due to competition [1] - The Glo Hilo product has achieved a 1% market share in Japan and is gaining traction in Poland and Italy, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in market share by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The vaping segment continues to benefit from an improved market environment, with a projected revenue increase in the second half of 2025, following a 13% year-on-year decline in the first half [2] - The Vuse brand has seen a 0.1 percentage point increase in market share, particularly in the U.S. where it rose by 0.7 percentage points, despite some growth being impacted by illegal vaping products in Canada [2] - The new oral tobacco product Velo Plus is expected to drive significant growth in the U.S. market, with a projected increase in market share by 9.2 percentage points to 15.6% and a global market share increase of 5.9 percentage points to 31.8% [2] Group 3 - Traditional cigarette operations remain stable, with a slight decline in market share of 0.1 percentage points, but a positive outlook for the second half of 2025 driven by improved conditions in the U.S. market [3] - The company anticipates a revenue and adjusted operating profit growth of approximately 2% for the fiscal year 2025, with accelerated growth in new tobacco revenue expected to achieve double-digit growth in the second half [3] - The company plans to increase its share buyback program to £1.3 billion in 2026, up from £1.1 billion in 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in Q3 2025 aligns with expectations, showing a revenue increase but a decline in net profit due to stock incentive expenses and ongoing high R&D investments [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% - Adjusted net profit after stock incentive expenses was 1.18 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1% [1]. Development Trends - Glo Hilo is expanding steadily in Japan and Poland, with positive sales momentum in the European vaping market - The company expects to see growth in revenue from HNB products and compliant vaping products in Europe, despite regulatory challenges in the U.S. [1][2]. Short-term Profitability and R&D - Short-term profitability may be slightly pressured due to increased orders from small clients in Europe and initial sales of HNB heating devices - The company is increasing R&D investments in vaping medical and HNB new businesses, which may impact net profit in Q3 2025 [2]. Long-term Growth Prospects - The company anticipates accelerated global expansion of Glo Hilo by 2026, which is expected to drive revenue growth - The vaping medical segment is expected to commercialize, opening up long-term growth opportunities [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 has been reduced by 20% to 1.05 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast has been increased by 11% to 1.88 billion yuan - The current stock price corresponds to a 47 times P/E ratio for 2026, with a target price maintaining a 69 times P/E ratio, indicating a potential upside of 46% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward adjustment of 20% in the forecast for Smoore International's (06969) 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders, bringing it to 1.05 billion yuan, while the 2026 net profit forecast is raised by 11% to 1.88 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook driven by HNB product sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, a decrease of 23.8%. Adjusted net profit after accounting for stock incentive expenses was 1.18 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% [2] - Quarterly net profit figures for 2025 were 200 million yuan in Q1, 300 million yuan in Q2, and 317 million yuan in Q3, with year-on-year changes of -43.4%, +12.7%, and -16.4% respectively, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Development - The Glo Hilo brand is expanding steadily in Japan and Poland, with the company positioned as a leader in flavor restoration, heating speed, and brand image. The positive sales momentum of heating devices is expected to contribute to revenue [3] - The company anticipates continued growth in the European vaping market, driven by differentiated compliant products from small brands, while orders in the U.S. are expected to remain stable despite regulatory tightening [3] - The company is leading in global market share for open-system proprietary brands, with expectations of continued year-on-year growth in Q3 2025 [3] Group 3: Profitability and R&D Investment - Short-term profitability may be slightly pressured due to increased orders from small customers in the European vaping market and initial sales of HNB heating devices. However, profitability is expected to improve as orders for vaping products increase and high-margin HNB products gain traction [4] - The company is increasing R&D investments in vaping medical and HNB new businesses, which, combined with the impact of stock incentive expenses, resulted in a year-on-year net profit decline of 16.4% and an adjusted net profit increase of 4% in Q3 2025 [4] Group 4: Long-term Growth Prospects - The company expects Glo Hilo to accelerate its global expansion in 2026, with concentrated shipments of HNB products likely to drive revenue growth. New products, technologies, and customers are anticipated to open up long-term opportunities [5] - In the vaping medical sector, the acceleration of complex generic drug development and the gradual realization of innovative drug collaborations are expected to lead to commercialization, providing long-term growth potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward adjustment in the net profit forecast for Smoore International (06969) for 2025 by 20% to 1.05 billion yuan, while the 2026 net profit forecast is raised by 11% to 1.88 billion yuan, reflecting a strong performance driven by HNB product sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [2] - Adjusted for stock incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.18 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Quarterly net profit for 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q of 2025 was 200 million, 300 million, and 317 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -43.4%, +12.7%, and -16.4% [2] Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Performance - The Glo Hilo brand is expanding steadily in Japan and Poland, with the company positioned as a leader in flavor restoration, heating speed, and brand image [3] - The company anticipates continued growth in the European vaping market, driven by differentiated compliant products amid regulatory changes [3] - The open-system self-owned brand is leading in global market share, with expectations of continued year-on-year growth in 3Q25 [3] Group 3: Cost Structure and R&D Investment - Short-term profitability is impacted by the allocation of stock incentive expenses, while R&D investments remain high [4] - The company expects slight pressure on gross margins in the short term due to increased orders from small clients in the European vaping market and initial sales of HNB heating devices [4] - The net profit and adjusted net profit for 3Q25 showed year-on-year changes of -16.4% and +4% respectively [4] Group 4: Long-term Growth Prospects - The company is optimistic about the global expansion of HNB products, which is expected to drive performance in the coming years [5] - The combination of drug-device complex generic drug development and innovative drug collaborations is anticipated to lead to commercialization in the vaping medical sector, opening up long-term growth opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The company reported Q3 2025 financial data, with revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - HNB is expected to become a major growth driver, with significant revenue increase anticipated due to the pre-production nature and the full rollout of hilo in Japan, leading to substantial sequential growth in sales [1] - The ODM+ strategy has been further validated, with satisfactory growth from new product iterations, and overall growth expected to exceed double digits as new compliant products are launched [1] Group 2 - Emerging businesses are expected to elevate the company's valuation, with the subsidiary successfully submitting an ANDA for Breo Ellipta, which is used for asthma and COPD treatment, indicating potential for further valuation uplift [1] - The company anticipates that HNB will become a primary source of profit release by 2026, with traditional vaping business valuation solidifying [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan, leading to PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue and profit increase in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [7] - The HNB (Heat Not Burn) segment is expected to become a major growth driver, with substantial sales growth anticipated in Japan and Europe [7] - The ODM+ strategy has shown satisfactory growth due to successful product iterations, with overall growth expected to exceed double digits [7] - The valuation of the company is expected to rise with the introduction of new compliant products and the recent FDA acceptance of a generic drug application for Breo® Ellipta® [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11,168 million yuan in 2023, 11,799 million yuan in 2024, 14,200 million yuan in 2025, 16,900 million yuan in 2026, and 19,500 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.35% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit forecast shows a decline in 2024 to 1,303 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 1,395 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 1,898 million yuan in 2026 and 2,368 million yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.38 yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x [6][8]