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思摩尔国际(06969):雾化电子烟业务受益于全球监管趋严,期待HNB业务放量
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-18 07:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening global regulations on vaping products, particularly in the e-cigarette sector, and anticipates significant growth in its Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) business [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client businesses [2][4]. - The decline in net profit, projected between 443 million to 541 million yuan, is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and a rise in marketing and legal costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 60.13 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while net profit is projected to decline by 21% to 35% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payments, is estimated to be between 688 million to 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1]. Market Dynamics - The UK market is undergoing significant changes due to a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards reusable products [2]. - In the US, regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes have intensified, with over 135 million USD worth of illegal products seized since 2023, indicating a tightening market environment [2]. Growth Opportunities - The HNB business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver starting in 2026, contributing notably to revenue and profit [4]. - The company is enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to sustain growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client segments [2][4].