Demand Side Resonance - The demand for power batteries is expected to surge in Q4 2025 due to the halving of the purchase tax exemption policy in 2026, leading to a "rush to install" phenomenon as automakers promise to cover the tax for pre-paying customers [1] - The demand for energy storage batteries has exceeded expectations, primarily due to the correction of domestic and international policy misjudgments [1] Supply Side Tension - There is a tight supply situation in the battery sector, with leading battery companies experiencing full production capacity [3] - For instance, Company C's capacity utilization rates are projected to be 80% in October, 85% in November, and 90% in December [3] Battery Companies' Capacity Plans - The global battery production plan for 2026 is approximately 2800 GWh, representing a 33% year-on-year increase [3] - Leading companies like CATL and BYD are expanding production significantly, with CATL targeting 1100 GWh and BYD 350 GWh [3] - Equipment suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent are seeing a 70% increase in orders, indicating a trend towards capacity expansion [3] Pricing Trends - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium in spot markets has rapidly increased from 50,000 yuan/ton to 120,000 yuan/ton, with expectations to reach 150,000 yuan/ton [3] - In contrast, long-term contract prices for hexafluorophosphate lithium have remained relatively stable at around 70,000 yuan/ton [3] Market Dynamics - After June, various provinces in China have introduced new energy consumption policies, such as Inner Mongolia's electricity price of 0.35 yuan/kWh for a 10-year term, which is expected to drive internal rates of return for energy storage projects to 20%-30% [3] - In the U.S., the anticipated decline in demand for Chinese batteries in 2026 has been revised, with actual demand in the second half of the year expected to be twice that of the first half [3] Procurement Strategies - Major manufacturers are focusing on balancing performance and cost in their cell procurement strategies [5] - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, while CATL is witnessing faster growth in the energy storage market compared to the power market [5]