1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA may shift from a cost-driven logic to a demand-driven narrative, and attention should be paid to demand inflection point signals [1] - The polyester chain may break away from cost constraints and shift towards a narrative of increasing demand in the short term, but there is a risk that the peak-season demand may not materialize [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 18, the PX main contract closed at 6,760.0 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -179.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,746.0 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, with a basis of -96.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.13 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.29 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 5.09 million meters, and the 15-day average turnover was 4.8273 million meters [2] - The PX plant operating rate remains high with no large-scale maintenance plans; some PTA plants have restart expectations, and the overall operating rate may increase month-on-month, but some factories may have the intention to reduce production due to low processing fees [3] - The polyester industry's operating rate remains stable at a high level, short-term weaving orders are seasonally increasing, and the Light Textile City's transaction data has exceeded the 15-day average, indicating that terminal demand improvement supports PTA's rigid demand [4] - The absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still at a medium to high level, social inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the weak spot basis reflects abundant market circulation supplies [5] 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 18, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,462.0 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 6,475.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 13.0 yuan/ton [6] - From August 8 to 18, PX futures prices first fell and then rose, while PTA futures prices fluctuated upward, reflecting enhanced cost support and a tightening supply pattern [6] - The MA15 of the Light Textile City's trading volume slightly declined during August 8 - 18, and downstream procurement intensity weakened marginally but remained stable overall [6] - The current inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.25 days, higher than the five-year average; among polyester filament, POY inventory is 16.1 days, significantly lower than the historical average, FDY inventory is 23.3 days, slightly higher than the average, and DTY inventory is 28.2 days, close to the average [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 1.08% to 6,760 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased by 6.58%, and open interest increased by 2.01% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price rose 0.64% to 4,746 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased by 1.25%, and open interest increased by 0.08% [8] - Short fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 0.97% to 6,462 yuan/ton, trading volume increased by 8.89%, and open interest decreased by 4.69% [8] - Other products: Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while most other products' prices remained stable or changed slightly [8][9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 18, Fed's Daly said waiting for more data, and the number of interest rate cuts this year is uncertain; Goolsbee said the latest PPI and CPI inflation data are worrying, and interest rate cuts may be possible if there are signs of no inflation spiral [10] - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said that a plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center will be announced this year [10] - On August 15, the US July PPI annual rate reached a high since February, and the monthly rate was the largest since June 2022, leading to a reduction in Fed interest rate cut bets [10] - On August 15, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will retain gold as a store of value, stop selling Bitcoin holdings, and did not call for a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut [10] - On August 15, the usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool reached a new low since April 2021, and Fed officials refuted the expectation of a large - scale interest rate cut in September [10][11] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 18, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 5.09 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19.08%, with 4.04 million meters of long - fiber fabric turnover and 1.03 million meters of short - fiber fabric turnover [12] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on PX and PTA futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, futures spreads, processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product sales, and inventory days [13][15][17]