PTA或从成本逻辑转向需求叙事，关注需求拐点信号 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 1. PTA&PX 08月18日，PX 主力合约收6760.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.08%，基差 为-179.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4746.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.64%， 基差为-96.0元/吨。 成本端，08月18日，布油主力合约收盘66.13美元/桶。WTI收62.29美元/ 桶。需求端，08月18日，轻纺城成交总量为509.0万米，15 日平均成交为 482.73万米。 供给端： PX装置开工率维持高位且暂无大规模检修计划，PTA装置近期部分装置存在 重启预期，整体开工率或环比提升，但加工费持续低位背景下，部分工厂 可能存在降负意愿，需关注实际执行情况，短期内供应端矛盾或边际缓 解。 需求端： 聚酯行业开工率高位持稳，短期织造订单季节性回升，轻纺城成交数据突 破近15日平均水平，显示终端需求边际改善对PTA刚需形成支撑。但需警惕 外贸订单持续性及旺 ...

乙二醇去库难提振盘面，等待淡季尾声情绪修复机会 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格环比微涨9元/吨至4435元/吨，基差 缩窄9元/吨至55元/吨，表明期货对现货贴水幅度略有收窄。1-5月间价差 继续走弱至-52元/吨，远月贴水加深反映市场对中长期供给压力的预期。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓减少6034手至21.8万手，成交环比下降13.96% 至9万手，显示资金参与度降温，市场转向观望情绪。 供给端：乙二醇总体开工率维持63.09%，油制、煤制及甲醇制装置开工率 均持平，但石脑油制利润亏损100美元/吨，煤制亏损214元/吨，甲醇制亏 损达1120元/吨，成本压力下生产端仍无明显减产信号。 需求端：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终端 需求处于季节性淡季，未见超预期改善。 库存端：华东主港库存环比下降4.8万吨至42.72万吨，张家港库存减少2万 吨至12.8万吨，港口发货量维持高位，但近期到港量连续两周上升至16.87 万吨，关注后续累库压力。 乙二醇短期或延续低位震荡，上方承压于成本逻辑与供需弱现实。供给 端，油煤制利润均处深度亏损但开工稳定，暗示厂商暂时 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 塑料 2601 | 7370 | 7399 | 7417 | 7353 | 62 | 0.85 | 106997 | -1395 | | 塑料 2605 | 7368 | 7375 | 7400 | 7342 | 48 | 0.66 | 801 | 6 | | 塑料 2509 | 7425 | 7462 | 7479 | 7397 | 71 | 0.96 | 478375 | 2116 | | PP2601 | 7149 | 7221 | 7233 | 7149 | 101 | 1.42 | 91599 | 3106 | | PP2605 | 7159 | 7208 | 7214 | 7159 | 100 | 1.41 | 987 | -1 | | PP2509 | 7215 | 7274 | 72 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] Market Conditions - Futures Market: L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed up at 7,418 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton (1.7%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and a decrease of 9,972 lots in positions to 431,735 lots. PP2509 closed at 7,214 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan (1.51%), with an increase of 21,500 lots in positions to 477,100 lots [5]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the price of LLDPE in North China was in the range of 7,330 - 7,480 yuan/ton, in East China 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,550 - 7,750 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of drawn - wire PP in North China was 7,140 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China 7,200 - 7,270 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,150 - 7,330 yuan/ton [5]. Core Viewpoint - Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, the cost logic supports the upward movement of the polyolefin price center, but downstream demand is difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastics and PP continues to weaken. Attention should be paid to news guidance, and be vigilant against the risk of high - level decline of polyolefins due to the fading of geopolitical risk premium [6]. Industry News - On June 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 775,000 tons in the same period last year [8]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of easing, and Trump has no intention of nuclear talks with Iran again. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and European and American crude oil futures closed up more than 4% again. On June 17, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07 (4.28%), with a trading range of $71 - $75.54; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22 (4.40%), with a trading range of $72.66 - $77.20 [8][9]. - The PE market price continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure and linear PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear, low - pressure, and high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [9].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak. Crude oil is waiting for the OPEC meeting to drive the market, while aromatics have confirmed a breakdown, and polyolefins continue to be weak. Most varieties in the sector are rated as bearish in both the medium and short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks this week due to issues like US and Japanese bond auctions and a rising VIX index. OPEC+ is expected to accelerate production increase in the medium - term, and short - term US refined oil inventories are rising. There is a possibility of new Iran nuclear deal [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Closed down more than 1% today, with short - term pressure at 461 [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Low inventory, but high - profit led to early resumption of previously shut - down plants, increasing supply. Pure benzene faces arrival pressure, and downstream demand is hard to improve [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, new low with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7195 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7195 [5]. (3) PX - **Logic**: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates. Downstream PTA's operating rate is rising, and PX is in a de - stocking phase. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 6775 [9]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 6720 [9]. (4) PTA - **Logic**: PTA plant operating rates are rising, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Downstream polyester operating rates are firm. However, the cost factor may dominate after crude oil decline [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, long - negative line confirmed the breakdown. Short - term pressure at 4800 [13]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - loss reference at 4750 [13]. (5) PP - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. Export profits are rising, but short - term exports are hard to increase [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level short - term downward structure, oscillated today. Short - term pressure at the high point on May 26 [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 6980 [16]. (6) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic operating rates decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates increased, with high import expectations in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and it is under pressure [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level downward structure, continued to decline today. Short - term pressure at 2255 [17]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at the high point on May 22 [17]. (7) Rubber - **Logic**: Terminal automobile and tire inventories are at high levels, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires, and domestic inventories are accumulating against the season [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the oscillation range with new low and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 14550 [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [19]. (8) PVC - **Logic**: April real - estate data is still poor, and downstream demand is hard to improve. Plant maintenance is gradually ending, and supply is expected to increase [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4980 [22]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [22]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side operating rates decreased slightly, but arrivals increased. Downstream polyester load remains high [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Broke through the short - term support at 4315 with a long - negative line and increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 4405 [23]. - **Strategy**: Transfer 15 - minute short positions to the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 4405 [23]. (10) Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Declined with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 7120 [25]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 7120 [25]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, increasing butadiene supply. Butadiene storage capacity is low, and price may fall after inventory accumulation. Terminal demand is weak [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term downward structures. Long - negative line with increased positions today. Short - term pressure at 11580 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with stop - profit reference at 11580 [27].