宏观数据点评报告 受季节性因素影响，制造业景气回落 ――2026 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 分析师： 宋亦威 SAC NO： S1150514080001 2026 年 3 月 4 日 [Table_Summary] 事件：2026 年 3 月 4 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，2 月制造业采购经理指数、 非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.0%、49.5%和 49.5%。 点评：（1）制造业景气水平回落至 49.0%，产需两端双双走弱。具体而言， 2 月生产端扩张步伐继续放缓，生产指数回落 1.0 个百分点至 49.6%，主要 与春节长假所带来的季节性影响有关，企业生产、物流交付和外贸活动均受 到扰动，此外，今年长假有所延长也对生产端产生一定增量影响；在此背景 下，新订单指数回落 0.6 个百分点至 48.6%，收缩步伐有所加快。进出口方 面，季节性因素影响下，新出口订单回落 2.8 个百分点至 45.0%，收缩步伐 显著加快；与此同时，进口指数也在收缩区间进一步下行。价格方面，在"反 内卷"政策效果逐步向产业链其他环节传导下，2 月出厂价格指数延续扩张 步伐；同时，原材料购进价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weak PMI in October is primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels negatively impacting production indices [2][68]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][68]. - The production index dropped significantly, falling to 49.7%, which is a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, marking a return to the contraction zone for the first time in six months [2][9]. - New orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating that while demand is weakening, it is not as severe as the production index [2][9]. Group 2: Causes of Weakness - The significant drop in the production index may be attributed to the retreat of the "rush production" effect, high inventory levels, and the nature of the PMI as a month-on-month indicator [2][14]. - In September, there was a temporary "stock-up rush" phenomenon, which led to a spike in production and inventory levels, but this created constraints for October's production capacity [14][68]. - The new export orders index fell sharply by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, the second-lowest point of the year, influenced by fluctuating tariff policies [3][69]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains resilient overall, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly affecting high-energy-consuming industries and construction [3][23]. - The PMI for high-energy industries dropped to 47.3%, reflecting strong pressure on real estate and infrastructure investment due to debt reduction efforts [3][23]. - The construction PMI also remains low, falling to 49.1%, but recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures, with the business activity expectation index for construction rising by 3.6 percentage points [3][23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent setbacks in manufacturing sentiment, the short-term disturbances from high inventory levels are expected to dissipate, and proactive fiscal policies are being implemented [4][35]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience as external uncertainties ease and new policies are rolled out to support production and demand [4][35]. - Continuous monitoring of the marginal changes in manufacturing sentiment will be essential as the situation evolves [4][70]. Group 5: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase to 50.1%, indicating some recovery in the service sector, driven by holiday travel and pre-sales activities [5][51]. - The service sector PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points, with the employment index also improving, suggesting a positive trend in service-related employment [5][55]. - In contrast, the construction sector experienced a slight decline in PMI, although the new orders index saw a significant rebound, increasing by 3.7 percentage points [6][60].

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]