Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations and closed lower during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, with the China Bond Comprehensive Wealth Index (CBA00201) remaining flat and the China Bond Comprehensive Full Price Index (CBA00203) declining by 0.08% [2][11] - Interest rates on bonds generally rose, with short-term rates increasing more than long-term rates, specifically, the yields on 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points respectively [11][12] Economic Conditions - The funding environment was relatively loose, but the economic fundamentals remained weak, with a slight increase in the R007 rate to 1.70% due to month-end effects [12] - The manufacturing PMI for May rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, still below the 50% threshold, indicating ongoing weakness in domestic demand despite some recovery in external demand [12][13] Policy and Regulatory Changes - The first batch of nine credit bond ETFs officially launched a general pledge repo business on May 29, 2025, which is expected to enhance financing channels for investors and improve capital efficiency [3][15] - The approval of these ETFs for general pledge repo business is anticipated to facilitate rapid development in the credit bond ETF market [15] REITs Market Dynamics - The REITs market continued to show strong interest, driven by declining bond yields and expectations of economic recovery, with property types like industrial parks and rental housing performing particularly well [14] - Recent approvals for new REITs indicate a significant acceleration in the market, although the high demand may increase the difficulty of new issuances [14] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund indices recorded a slight increase of 0.01% last week, while medium to long-term bond fund indices saw a decrease of 0.02% [4][5] - REITs funds outperformed with a weekly increase of 0.90%, accumulating a year-to-date return of 37.79% [10][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the weakening of the US dollar, attributed to the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration and growing concerns over the US fiscal situation, leading to a crisis of market confidence [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index is expected to decline by 0.4% in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of losses [1][10]. - The volatility of the dollar is linked to the inconsistent trade policies, which have caused investors to seek alternatives to US assets [2][5]. Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Recent court rulings have created a confusing environment for investors, with a trade court blocking tariffs just as an appeals court reinstated them, indicating ongoing uncertainty [3][4][6]. - The unpredictable nature of these policies is likened to a "ticking time bomb," fostering a cautious market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Recession Concerns - Recent economic data, including a rise in initial jobless claims to 240,000, has heightened fears of a recession, as the first quarter GDP contracted by 0.2% [7]. - The weak demand for long-term bonds from developed economies like the US and Japan reflects broader concerns about fiscal debt levels [8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - In contrast to the weakening dollar, emerging market currencies have shown strength, with an index tracking these currencies rising by 2.2%, the largest monthly gain since November 2023 [9][11].