宏观经济周报 2025 年第 35 周 2025 年 8 月 25 日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.icbc.com.cn 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数进一步扩张，显示中国经济动能持续增强，修复 态势从初步企稳走向更具广度和深度的协调扩张。四大分项指标全线走强，构 成经济运行的多重支撑。其中，消费景气指数显著上行，重回扩张区间并创近 一个月来新高，反映出居民消费信心加快恢复，服务类消费表现尤为亮眼。投 资景气指数进一步提升，政策驱动下的基建和制造业投资持续扩张。生产景气 指数显著改善，产能利用率大幅抬升，供给端延续良好韧性，成为当前经济增 长的重要引擎。出口景气指数同步回升，在外部需求整体偏弱的背景下展现出 较强适应能力和结构优势。总体而言，本周经济运行从边际修复走向实质扩 张，展现出消费、投资、生产与出口协同发力的积极格局，政策效应持续释 放，经济增长基础进一步夯实。 2025 年 7 月中国经济运行保持了稳中有进的发展态势。内需稳步恢复， ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the complexity of market games is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Although the market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Key Points by Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Market Conditions - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 3.21 million lots and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day [5]. - The market sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the stabilization of market freight rates, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. After the close, except for the main contract, other contracts have increased [5]. Trade Policy - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Geopolitical Situation - On August 13, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, including asking Israel to agree in writing to permanently end the war and abandon any plan to occupy Gaza and provide international guarantees. Hamas negotiation representatives arrived in Egypt this week to restart the cease - fire and hostage release negotiations [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 on the 2510 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates. The market has fluctuated significantly recently, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Indexes and Economic Data - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI published price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [3]. - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a 25% small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions below 1300 in the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Information - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Core Viewpoint - The ISM services PMI data indicates a stagnating U.S. services sector due to weak demand and rising costs, leading to a reduction in workforce [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data Analysis - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July is reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8, indicating near stagnation [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to 50.3, approaching a standstill [2]. - The employment index has decreased to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [2]. Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The prices index for raw materials and services has risen to 69.9, the highest level since October 2022 [2]. - Backlogged orders have decreased for the fifth consecutive month, and inventory expansion has slowed, with the inventory sentiment index falling nearly 4 points to 53.2, the lowest since October of the previous year [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Market Reaction - Analysts suggest that the ISM PMI data reflects a weak U.S. services economy grappling with higher tariffs, cautious consumer attitudes, and uncertainties from government policies [4]. - Following the PMI data release, U.S. stock markets turned negative, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 0.7% after previously gaining [5]. - The divergence between the ISM services PMI and the stronger Markit services PMI, which reported a final value of 55.7, indicates contrasting economic signals [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall business sentiment has declined, with manufacturing and services confidence weakening, suggesting potential downward risks for growth in the coming months [9]. - Despite the current economic challenges, there are indications of a potential rebound in growth driven by increased demand in the technology sector and financial services [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices rose collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks slightly stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, and the decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. Although the US - China trade reached a 90 - day tariff truce extension, the market is expected to enter a wide - range shock due to the decline of the three domestic PMI indices in July and the lack of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) was at 4082.0, up 34.0; IF sub - main contract (2508) was at 4095.0, up 35.0. IH main contract (2509) was at 2791.0, up 23.0; IH sub - main contract (2508) was at 2789.4, up 22.2. IC main contract (2509) was at 6198.6, up 40.8; IC sub - main contract (2508) was at 6265.4, up 44.8. IM main contract (2509) was at 6682.0, up 59.4; IM sub - main contract (2508) was at 6754.4, up 60.0 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1305.6, up 10.6; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2170.4, up 5.0 [2]. - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts varied. For instance, IF current - quarter - current - month was - 44.0, down 0.4; IH current - quarter - current - month was 3.4, up 1.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 28,119.00, up 31.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 15,955.00, down 81.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 14,642.00, up 452.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 48,013.00, up 1277.0 [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4103.45, up 32.8; the Shanghai 50 was at 2790.73, up 21.3. The CSI 500 was at 6303.24, up 41.5; the CSI 1000 was at 6787.48, up 47.8 [2]. - The basis of each main contract also changed. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 21.4, down 3.5; the IH main contract basis was 0.3, down 0.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 16,158.21 billion yuan, up 976.19 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 19,913.13 billion yuan, up 114.56 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1946.91 billion yuan, down 229.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 72.04%, up 0.48%. Shibor was 1.315%, up 0.001% [2]. Industry News - In July, the domestic official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and had been in the contraction range for 4 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were still above the boom - bust line but also declined from the previous values [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, and the tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025 [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far less than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% [2]. Key Data to Watch - China's July trade data will be released on August 7 at 9:30; July financial data will be released on August 8 at 16:00; July PPI and CPI will be released on August 9 at 9:30 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - Due to the complex situation, short - term trading strategies should be cautious, and long - term strategies should wait for the market to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Shipping Indexes - On August 1st, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [1] - Also on August 1st, the SCFI was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service industry PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI initial value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7), the service industry PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Market and Policy Influences - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, have increased the difficulty of the game in the shipping market. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1st [2] - The spot market has set a price range and made small price increases to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [2] Trading and Contract Information - On August 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1424.0, with a decline of 0.29%, a trading volume of 35,700 lots, and an open interest of 52,400 lots, an increase of 558 lots from the previous day [2] - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take partial profits from the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 and short the EC2512 contract lightly and take profits. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices declined collectively this week, and the four stock index futures also weakened. Large-cap blue-chip stocks were weaker than small and mid-cap stocks. The market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has been above 900 billion yuan for four consecutive weeks. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, which has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also declined from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. In terms of trade, China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. In terms of policy, the Politburo meeting in July did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. Overall, the third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of the three PMI indices in July indicated that the economic recovery still faced certain challenges. After the Politburo meeting, due to the full reaction of the market to the meeting expectations, in the absence of more-than-expected policies, the market bulls may take profit actions, and the stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][98] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 had a weekly decline of 2.10%, IH2509 declined 1.52%, IC2509 dropped 1.80%, and IM2509 fell 0.95%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index declined 1.75%, the Shanghai 50 Index dropped 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.37%, and the CSI 1000 Index declined 0.54%. [9] 3.2 News Overview - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. - From July 28th to 29th, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days. - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high-level opening up, and resolve local government debt risks. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a decrease of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [12][13][14] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.58%, the STAR 50 Index declined 1.65%, the SME 100 Index dropped 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.74%. - Overseas Main Indices: The S&P 500 declined 0.77%, the FTSE 100 rose 0.14%, the Hang Seng Index declined 3.47%, and the Nikkei 225 declined 1.58%. - Industry Sector Performance: Industry sectors generally declined, with coal and non-ferrous metals sectors weakening significantly, while pharmaceutical and biological, communication and other sectors rising against the trend. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Industry main funds generally showed a net outflow, with large net outflows in the computer and non-ferrous metals sectors, and small net inflows in the banking and transportation sectors. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate declined, and the capital price was low. - Restricted Share Lifting and Northbound Capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.52 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 88.748 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 955.947 billion yuan. - Futures Basis: The basis of the IF, IH, and IC main contracts fluctuated weakly, while the basis of the IM main contract fluctuated. [17][18][22][26][30][33][41][44][50][54] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [98]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market atmosphere is bearish with significant drops in commodities, and the market is oscillating weakly with large recent fluctuations. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Market Conditions - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route on July 28 was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [2]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26%; the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points; the European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 25: the composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [2]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, with a decline of 4.66%, a trading volume of 46,300 lots, and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, the same as April, back above the critical point [2]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2]. Policy and Geopolitical Events - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market had a slight rebound [3]. - On July 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson hoped that the US would work with China to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations. On the same day, Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israeli targets, and Israel submitted a response to the cease - fire negotiation [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market faces adjustment pressure due to short - term expectation differences after the second round of Sino - US trade talks and the central political bureau meeting. It is recommended to wait and see for most products. For some products, short - term trading opportunities are presented based on their market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes are fluctuating downwards, with TMT remaining strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to adjustment pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to allocate more in the short - term and pay attention to high - frequency economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure, and it is advisable to buy at low levels for post - decline recovery. Silver prices are fluctuating in the range of 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping**: The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short at high levels for contracts 08 and 10 [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are affected by market expectations, and iron ore follows steel price fluctuations. It is recommended to be cautious when going long on iron ore [2]. - **Coal and Coking**: For coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see; for coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but still recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure; for alumina, beware of squeeze - out risks; aluminum prices are narrowly fluctuating [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are facing downward pressure or weak volatility. For example, oil prices are in a range - bound pattern, and PX is under pressure. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Most agricultural products are in a state of weakening or fluctuating. Different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand and market conditions [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass, rubber, etc. are recommended to short at high levels; for industrial silicon, buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **New Energy**: For polysilicon, buy straddles/put options; for lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see carefully [2].