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看股做债,不是看债做股
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-29 13:44
Group 1: Macro Analysis - Understanding the relationship between stocks and bonds is crucial for macro asset allocation decisions[2] - Current liquidity improvement is primarily driven by the migration of household deposits, differing from the monetary easing seen in 2014-2015[5] - The scale of non-bank liquidity growth in the first five months of 2025 is approximately CNY 6.2 trillion, compared to CNY 1.6 trillion in the same period of 2015[5][20] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The prevailing logic is to "look at stocks to do bonds," indicating a stock-driven market where risk appetite influences bond trading[3][4] - In the current environment, if stocks rise, bond yields are likely to follow, while a decline in stocks may lead to bond price increases[3][4] - The current market is characterized by a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, rather than a simultaneous bullish trend in both[3][4] Group 3: Special Considerations - Unique factors this round include the difficulty for household deposits to return to real estate, leading to a stronger migration towards non-bank institutions[3] - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down limits the downward expression of risk appetite in the stock market[3] - The current liquidity situation is not a result of improved economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where deposit migration followed economic recovery[8][27]