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【笔记20250930— 股债双牛,喜迎双节】
债券笔记· 2025-09-30 13:54
人性会强迫你交易,让你冲动入场 ,让你在市场中左右搏杀赌红眼,越做越频繁、越没有理性和章法,胡乱操作一气后,黯然离场,这就是靠"感觉"交 易的结局。 今日股债双牛、喜迎双节!回首去年,国债期货与黄金形影不离,今年却分道扬镳:国债期货被空头控盘,黄金则一骑绝尘。如今只留下一笔悬念:黄金 与大A,谁能率先突破3900? 近日市场预期四季度"特6"要登基,于是提前把轿子抬到午门,顺手把"特2"扔进冷宫。结果今日尾盘财政部一纸诏书:30年变50年,"特6"当场从龙椅摔 下,"特2"日内狂降5BP、王者归来。"卷"的尽头,是亏钱。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250930— 股债双牛,喜迎双节(-股市小幅上涨+央行买断式逆回购公告+资金面均衡偏松=中下)】 资金面均衡偏松,长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展2422亿元7天期逆回购操作,今日有2761亿元7天期逆回购到期,净回笼339亿元。此外,央行公告,2025年10月9日将以固定数量、利率 招标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作,期限为3个月(91天)。 资金面均衡偏松,资金利率平稳,季末DR001小幅上至1.39%附近,DR007下行15B ...
十大机构看后市:牛市中高位震荡后A 股多继续上涨,坚持科技,高低切的时机尚未到来
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 09:12
Group 1 - The overall market performance shows mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.3%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index increased by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of the globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing companies, suggesting that this will enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1] - The financing trends around the National Day holiday indicate a pattern of "pre-holiday contraction and post-holiday explosion," with historical data suggesting a high probability of A/H shares rising after preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2 - Huajin Securities notes that historically, after high-level fluctuations in a bull market, A-shares tend to continue rising, with current policies and external events remaining positive [2] - Dongwu Securities identifies potential market directions for the fourth quarter, suggesting a structural shift may occur, with cyclical sectors and low-position technology branches being key areas to watch [3] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy and industry support, such as AI, lithium batteries, and consumer services, especially with the upcoming holidays boosting travel-related stocks [4] Group 3 - Western Securities reports a contraction in A-share valuations, with the coal industry leading gains due to rising coal prices driven by winter supply concerns [5] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with support levels identified at previous lows, and recommendations to maintain current positions until adjustments are complete [7] - Kaisheng Securities highlights the ongoing dominance of technology sectors, driven by relative profitability and global semiconductor cycles, with AI emerging as a significant demand driver [8] Group 4 - Debon Securities indicates that the current market is at the beginning of a new dollar interest rate cut cycle, with a slow bull market expected to continue, particularly in sectors like AI and solid-state batteries [9] - Xiangcai Securities suggests that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner, influenced by ongoing policies and the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on technology, green initiatives, and consumer services [10]
2025年8月CPI和PPI数据解读:8月通胀:物价总水平温和波动
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 10:51
Inflation Data Summary - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and market expectations of -0.2%[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0%, down from 0.4% in July, primarily due to falling food prices[2] - August PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from -3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year in August, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%)[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a slight increase from the previous month[3] - Industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 4% year-on-year, showing a minor improvement from -4.5% in July[7] Market Outlook - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, supported by potential easing in US-China trade relations and risk mitigation from "stabilizing" funds[1] - A-shares are expected to experience a structural market with alternating low-value dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]
记者观察:本轮“看股做债”本质上是风险偏好再平衡
Group 1 - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds has become more pronounced since July, with the A-share market strengthening due to policy support and capital inflow, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to surpass 3,800 points, a ten-year high [1] - The bond market has adjusted as funds have been diverted, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rebounding from around 1.64% in early July to over 1.8% [1] - The strong performance of the equity market is seen as a key driver of the bond market's adjustment, with a rebalancing of market risk appetite being a major underlying reason for the differing performances of stocks and bonds [1] Group 2 - The current bond market adjustment and the strengthening of the equity market may represent a correction of overpricing in bonds and a filling of valuation gaps in equities, driven by shifts in risk appetite, policy expectations, and capital reallocation [2] - The relationship between stocks and bonds is not always a "see-saw"; there can be scenarios where both markets perform well simultaneously, particularly when falling funding rates influence asset price judgments [2] - The ongoing liquidity easing, influenced by declining bank deposit rates, may also play a role in the current market dynamics, as investors seek higher returns from equities, which in turn affects bond yields [2]
旧经济深蹲,新经济蓄力
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-05 10:01
Economic Recovery - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is at 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery from July, but overall economic growth momentum may have peaked [2] - The economic outlook suggests a potential for increased uncertainty, particularly regarding foreign trade recovery, with expectations of a non-linear economic performance influenced by external factors [2][3] - The overall GDP growth target of around 5% for the year is considered achievable despite challenges [2] Market Trends - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by nominal GDP growth as a key pricing factor [2] - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity to support market conditions, which will contribute to the bullish trends in both asset classes [3] Industrial Production - Industrial production is expected to maintain stability, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% for August [4] - The industrial growth is supported by policies aimed at boosting equipment manufacturing and domestic demand, alongside some export resilience due to tariff exemptions [4][6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in August, slightly down from 3.7% in July, influenced by ongoing restrictions on public consumption and the diminishing impact of trade-in policies [7][8] - The automotive retail sector is expected to face pressure due to seasonal factors and the transitional phase of trade-in policies, with a projected retail volume of around 1.94 million vehicles in August, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase [9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to slow to 1.1% for the first eight months of 2025, with significant declines in real estate investment [11][12] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 5.2%, while infrastructure investment is projected to increase by 3.0% [11][12] Export and Import Dynamics - Exports are expected to grow by 6.9% in August, while imports are projected to increase by 2.8%, indicating a potential nearing of a downward turning point for exports [20][21] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain stable, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year [22][25] - The urban unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 5.3% in August, influenced by seasonal factors related to graduation [26]
【兴证固收.利率】四问“股债跷跷板”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 11:50
Group 1 - The current market is experiencing a "strong stock and weak bond" seesaw pattern, with the equity market breaking through key levels while the bond market remains under pressure [2][4] - Historical analysis shows that there have been six notable "strong stock and weak bond" periods in the past decade, with the most recent one starting in late June this year [2][4] - The initiation of this pattern typically occurs when stock valuations are low and attractive, while bond yields have already declined significantly after a bull market [4][8] Group 2 - The bond market's performance during these "strong stock and weak bond" periods has shown that the adjustment in bond yields is often not closely correlated with stock market movements, but rather with the factors driving stock price increases and central bank monetary policy [15][20] - In previous cycles, the duration of the "strong stock and weak bond" periods ranged from 15 to 456 days, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing gains between 13% and 98% [15][26] - The bond market's yield curve indicates that short-term bonds are more influenced by monetary policy and liquidity conditions than by stock market performance [15][20] Group 3 - The conclusion of previous "strong stock and weak bond" patterns has typically been driven by a weakening equity market, often due to regulatory tightening, rapid stock price increases leading to profit-taking, or external factors [26][29] - Market expectations regarding policy changes can also lead to the end of the "seesaw" pattern, as seen in notable periods such as April 2019 and October 2024 [29][30] - The current outlook suggests that the probability of transitioning to a "dual bull" market is low, with continued pressure from rising equity prices on the bond market [32][34] Group 4 - The current sentiment in the bond market indicates a potential for a short-term rebound, particularly if the 10-year government bond yield can break below the critical level of 1.75% [40] - The recent rapid increase in valuations in the technology sector may lead to a slowdown in further stock price increases, which could alleviate some pressure on the bond market [40]
美国降息预期为A/H股带来利好,外资流入助力市场反弹
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 23:47
Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, alleviating uncertainties in the A/H stock markets, while the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Chinese economy is diminishing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut - Three potential scenarios for the timing of the Fed's rate cut are outlined: 1. A 25 basis point cut in September if August non-farm payrolls are between 50,000 and 150,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%-4.4% [3] 2. A 50 basis point cut if non-farm payrolls fall below 50,000 and the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4% [3] 3. No cut if non-farm payrolls exceed 150,000 and the unemployment rate is below 4.1%, along with a CPI increase of over 0.4% [3] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The Fed's monetary easing is expected to significantly support the A/H stock markets, leading to a substantial increase in foreign capital inflow [3] - The appreciation of the RMB may lead to a "slow bull" market for A/H stocks, particularly benefiting sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, leading internet companies in Hong Kong, and the new energy industry [3][4] Group 3: Dollar Liquidity Spillover - The spillover effect of U.S. dollar liquidity post-Fed rate cut is expected to positively impact Chinese assets, benefiting both the A/H stock market and the Chinese bond market [4] - The bond market is anticipated to attract more capital, with a trend of simultaneous gains in both stocks and bonds emerging [4] - Chinese concept stocks, especially in technology sectors, are likely to attract more investment due to lower overseas financing costs [4] Group 4: Asset Allocation in A/H Stocks - Current market conditions suggest that A/H stock allocation remains attractive, particularly in growth sectors such as technology, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The Fed's rate cut is likely to provide additional funding support for these sectors, with expectations of continued benefits from international capital inflows in the coming months [5]
【笔记20250901— 股债迷你双牛】
债券笔记· 2025-09-01 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment, with minor fluctuations in interest rates and a stable manufacturing PMI, leading to a modest rise in the stock market [3][7]. Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182.7 billion yuan, with 288.4 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [4]. - The liquidity environment at the beginning of the month is balanced and slightly loose, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.45% [5]. - The official manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4, aligning with expectations, while the manufacturing PMI for China was at 50.5, indicating a return to the expansion zone [7]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.78% and slightly increased to around 1.785%, while it later decreased to approximately 1.7685% [7]. - The bond market is experiencing a "mini bull" phase, with significant trading activity as investors hedge against risks [8]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicate a slight decline, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.47%, reflecting a decrease of 5 basis points [6][10].
国泰海通|宏观:“存款搬家”:如何影响股债——中国居民财富配置研究二
Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is fundamentally an asset price comparison effect following the reduction of deposit interest rates, which has led to increased acceptance of equity assets as funds are released from low-risk investments [1][8]. Group 1: Underlying Logic of Deposit Migration - The driving force behind deposit migration stems from the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, prompting residents to seek new asset opportunities as old asset returns diminish [2][8]. - There exists a clear seesaw effect between resident deposits (especially fixed deposits) and deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with the timing and final flow influenced by the macroeconomic environment and risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Impact on Stock and Bond Markets - The current round of deposit migration began in June 2023, initially flowing into money market funds and bond funds, with a noticeable increase in equity fund inflows only after the "924" policy [2][8]. - Theoretically, the decline in risk-free interest rates should lead to a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets, but due to transmission lags or liquidity traps, these markets may experience staggered movements, as seen in previous years [8]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Current Deposit Migration - Unlike previous instances, the current liquidity bull market does not aim to devalue the currency, as the central bank has not engaged in extensive monetary easing but rather focused on guiding capital back into the market [2][8]. - The recent increase in risk appetite is a result of significant macroeconomic changes, with the central bank's continuous guidance on exchange rate expectations reinforcing domestic risk appetite and restoring the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [8].
股债“双牛”行情不具持续性
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-28 00:15
Group 1 - The bond market is expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term due to high market risk appetite and the influence of stock market performance on bond market dynamics [1][4] - Recent policies focus on "anti-involution," promoting consumption, and stabilizing expectations, leading to a strong stock market while the bond market remains weak [1][3] - The "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds is evident, where optimistic economic expectations lead to increased stock allocation and reduced bond allocation, and vice versa [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that there have been four notable "dual bull" markets in stocks and bonds since 2016, typically lasting less than one month and occurring when economic fundamentals remain stable [2] - The current strong stock market is driven by global liquidity easing and a stable domestic economic and policy environment, attracting steady capital inflow [3][4] - The bond market has shown relative resilience due to stable institutional liabilities and controlled redemption pressures, with a strong demand for government bonds despite rising yields [4]