其三，股市关键节点将近，债市多头情绪升温。股市继续大涨，但对债市的直接"抽水"效应还不明显， 债市或也在押注股市从快牛切换至震荡慢牛的可能性，做多信心相应提升。往后看，倘若股市继续大 涨，可能仍会增加债市的变数，但随着债市多头情绪的修复，即便有调整可能也是重新上车的机会。 刘郁团队认为，整体来看，市场放量大涨，是资金情绪正盛的表现。同时，隐含波动率大幅上升，也是 投机热度快速上升的信号。不过，短期行情与资金交易行为相关，而牛市的三条中长期逻辑（稳市政 策、科技主线、反内卷叙事）依旧相对牢固。这意味着，若以上中长期逻辑不变，调整仍是机会，牛市 思维值得继续保持。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经上海8月26日电华西证券固收首席分析师刘郁团队在最新发布的报告中表示，8月25日，在权益 市场依然强势的背景下，长端利率大幅下行，10年、30年国债活跃券下行2.2bp、4.0bp，分别至 1.764%、1.998%，这是8月以来债市首次相较股市走出极其显著的独立行情。 "看股做债"思维回撤是重要且积极的信号，刘郁团队倾向于有三个原因：其一，市场降息预期升温。一 方面，美联储降息预期发酵，22日晚，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派 ...

来源：郁言债市 ►传统框架失效，"看股做债"走向极致 7月中旬以来或是相对煎熬的阶段。一方面，债市需要承受长久期收益率大幅上行带来的资本利得亏损，另一方面，投资者还面临着传统利率定价框架的 全面失效。在理论上，债市定价的三要素，资金面、基本面、政策面，均支持利率下行。 市场进入了一个由风险偏好单变量决断的定价状态，这也使得"看股做债"走向极致。这种状态形成的原因，或主要与股市非常态的风险收益率比相关，4 月以来股市的极致行情使得上证指数、万得全A的滚动3M卡玛比率自7月后长期维持在4.0以上水平，这是去年"924"行情也无法达到的状态。这种几乎只 涨不跌的风险偏好，对债市形成极大压力。 ►8月下旬，股市发展的两个逻辑 一是快涨逻辑，在"九三共识"的支撑下，各大股指，尤其是大盘型股指，或受到资金的托举，继续维持只涨不跌的趋势，同时由于本轮股票牛市不同 于"924"行情，前期散户资金进场节奏或更为温和，未来一周随着股市赚钱效应得到强化，不排除居民资金集中进场，加快股市上涨速度的可能性，债市 或仍面临压力。 二是震荡逻辑，随着9月3日阅兵时点将近，部分投资者或针对"九三共识"做逆向投资，提前止盈退场，一旦股市开始出 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease from 4.20 trillion yuan in the previous period[2] - The total social financing stock grew by 9.0% year-on-year, compared to 8.9% previously[2] - M2 money supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in the prior period[2] - New M1 money supply rose by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to 4.6% previously[2] Group 2: Corporate Loan Trends - Corporate loans turned negative, with a decrease of 2.6 billion yuan in medium to long-term loans, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.9 billion yuan[47] - The contraction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by raising it year-on-year[3] - Despite weak loan performance, overall corporate financing is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle, supporting the view that the worst phase is passing[7] - The ratio of resident deposits to the total stock market value remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves[38] - The current high growth of non-bank deposits (2.1 trillion yuan added in July) indicates ample liquidity in financial institutions[38]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 7 月，新增社融 1.16 万亿（前值 4.20 万亿）。社融存量同比增长 9.0% （前值 8.9% ）， M2 同比增长 8.8% （前值 8.3% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 5.6% （前值 4.6% ）。 核心观点 1 、企业贷款转负不影响我们"看股做债，股债反转"的判断。过去几年企业贷款增长主要靠制造业贷款推动，因此企业贷款的收缩或与当下控制违规项目、产业技 术标准不达标的制造业投资相关。这个视角下，企业贷款收缩或有利于 PPI 同比的抬升。 2 、企业整体的融资规模仍在增长。虽然贷款表现偏弱，但是权益融资，债券融资较去年同期均有改善。经济转型过程中，地产和地方融资平台更适配传统的间接 融资，而高科技创新型企业则与直接融资更为适配。 3 、贷款的高低不必然对应经济的好坏。我们跟踪的企业居民存款剪刀差仍在持续修复，这意味着经济的循环持续改善，我们仍未改变经济循环最差的时段正在过 去这一判断。 4 、对于权益资产而言，本轮中国资本市场的稳 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July 2025, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, down from 4.20 trillion yuan in the previous period[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 9.0%, compared to 8.9% previously[1] - M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in the previous period[1] Group 2: Corporate Loan Trends - Corporate loans turned negative with a decrease of 2.6 billion yuan in medium to long-term loans and 5.5 billion yuan in short-term loans[11] - The contraction in corporate loans may benefit the year-on-year increase in PPI[2] - Despite weak loan performance, overall corporate financing is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current market sentiment remains strong, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.1 trillion yuan, marking the third highest value for the year[5] - The ratio of household deposits to the market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remains at a historical high of 1.7 times, indicating potential for further market growth[5] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks continues to rise compared to bonds, suggesting that stocks still offer better risk-adjusted returns[7] Group 4: Policy Implications - The narrative of "watching stocks and doing bonds" remains unchanged despite the negative corporate loan trend, as the worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing[4] - The increase in non-bank deposits may lead to central bank concerns about fund idling, potentially impacting the bond market[3]

Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors associated with Huachuang Securities, highlighting the importance of appropriate investor suitability management [1][3]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide timely exchanges of viewpoints specifically for professional investors in the context of new media [3]. - The material is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer to the complete content of the original reports [4]. - The opinions and analyses presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [4].

Core Viewpoints - The current liquidity easing is primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits, leading to a market logic that favors equities over bonds, rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [3][5][6] - Unlike previous instances where household deposit relocation occurred after economic expectations improved, this time it is policy-driven, with the underlying fundamentals still in a bottoming phase, resulting in strong market expectations for further central bank easing [3][6][19] - Continuous relocation of household deposits may raise concerns for the central bank regarding idle funds, and the necessity for further loans to stimulate investment is decreasing, unless specific adverse economic events occur [3][7][19] Financial Data Summary - In June 2025, new social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, up from 2.29 trillion yuan previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2][25] - M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while new M1 increased by 4.6%, indicating a shift in liquidity dynamics [2][28] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with a total of 2.24 trillion yuan in new loans, reflecting a strong demand for credit [21][27] Analysis of Liquidity Dynamics - When household deposit relocation is the main driver of liquidity, the market logic tends to favor equities, creating a seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [5][12] - The current environment suggests a preference for equities over bonds, as household deposit relocation is not linked to improved economic expectations but rather to policy initiatives [6][15] - The central bank's future actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both equity and bond markets [9][19]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion, up from 2.29 trillion previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% compared to 8.7% before[1] - M2 growth was 8.3% year-on-year, an increase from 7.9% previously, while new M1 (新口径) grew by 4.6% compared to 2.3% before[1] - The current market logic reflects a "look at stocks, act like bonds" approach rather than a dual bull market for stocks and bonds, primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Implications - The current liquidity easing is mainly driven by policy rather than economic improvement, leading to strong market expectations for further central bank easing[2] - The central bank's probability of further easing is decreasing unless triggered by significant adverse economic events or market shocks[2] - Future central bank actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both stock and bond markets[2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - In June, corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion, while household loans rose by 597.6 billion[1] - The social financing scale in June showed an increase of 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, reflecting a significant rise in government bond issuance[1] - The total amount of deposits increased by 3.21 trillion in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion, indicating a strong inflow into the banking system[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the correlation between stocks and bonds, exploring whether the "see - stock - do - bond" approach will become a new trading theme in the bond market. It analyzes the stock - bond pattern this year, historical "stock - bond seesaw" situations, and provides an outlook for the bond market. Currently, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more prominent, and the bond market may face certain disturbances, but the liquidity environment is still relatively favorable [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Stock - Bond Pattern Deduction - In the first quarter, it was a "tight money + wide credit" environment, with a typical stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The stock market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6.8% and the CSI 300 rising 6.0% from January 6 to March 17. The bond market was in shock consolidation, with short - end yields rising significantly [11][13][14]. - In the second quarter, it shifted to a "wide money + wide credit" environment, showing a stock - bond double - bull pattern. The stock market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 11.2% and the CSI 300 rising 9.7% from April 1 to June 30. The bond market had a recovery, with short - end yields falling significantly [11][18][19]. 3.2 Historical Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - **2016.10 - 2018.01: Economic Recovery + Monetary Tightening, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 15%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 134BP. The economic fundamentals were good, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, leading to a tight money supply [24][27][31]. - **2020.04 - 2020.12: Economic Repair + Monetary Neutrality, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 27%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 79BP. The economy recovered, and the central bank's monetary policy returned to normal. The supply pressure of government bonds increased, tightening the money supply [32][34][39]. - **2022.11 - 2023.02: Policy Intensification + Expectation Change, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 27BP. Policy adjustments boosted the expectation of economic recovery, and the bond market was affected by the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions [40][41][45]. - **2024.09 - 2024.10: Policy Tailwind + Institutional Profit - Taking, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 28%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 15BP. A series of policies boosted economic recovery expectations, and the central bank's monetary policy "good news was exhausted." Institutional profit - taking increased the bond market adjustment risk [47][49][55]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook: See - Stock - Do - Bond? - The current bond market trading is crowded, while the stock's cost - performance is relatively high. The central bank's overall further easing policy may be limited in the short term, and the money supply may maintain a "low - volatility and rigid" state [5]. - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more obvious, and the logic of "see - stock - do - bond" may disturb the bond market sentiment. It is advisable to moderately participate in curve steepening trading, with a strategy of "defending and squeezing spreads at the short - to - medium end + allocating on dips at the long end" [59][60][65].

Core Viewpoint - The current macro asset allocation logic is primarily driven by the "look at stocks to do bonds" approach, as the main liquidity improvement is due to the migration of household deposits rather than central bank monetary easing [2][9][21]. Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation Analysis - Analyzing the stock-bond relationship is crucial in macro asset allocation, where the environment can either favor "look at stocks to do bonds" or "look at bonds to do stocks" [8][13]. - In a "look at stocks to do bonds" environment, the upward movement of stock prices influences bond trading behavior, while in a "look at bonds to do stocks" environment, falling interest rates affect stock market valuations [8][13]. - The current liquidity improvement is characterized by a significant migration of household deposits to non-bank financial institutions, with approximately 6.2 trillion yuan moving in the first five months of 2025, marking the highest level since 2009 [9][21]. Group 2: Special Characteristics of Current Liquidity - The current migration of household deposits is unique as it does not follow an improvement in economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where such migrations occurred after economic recovery [3][28]. - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down has limited the extent to which risk appetite can express downward movements in the stock market [4][28]. - Financial regulations established in 2017 and 2022 have heightened vigilance against financial practices that lead to asset bubbles, impacting the current liquidity dynamics [5][28]. Group 3: Implications of Current Trends - The current environment suggests that as the stock market strengthens, the risk of systemic asset price bubbles increases, leading to tighter monetary policy and pressure on the bond market [30]. - Conversely, if the stock market weakens, the central bank's focus on stabilizing market expectations increases, potentially leading to short-term dual bullish trends in both stocks and bonds [30].