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固定收益策略报告:国开利差有修复机会吗?-20260208
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-02-08 09:04
Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the national development bond (国开债) yield spread has lagged in its recovery compared to government bonds (国债), with the spread widening instead of narrowing during the recent market rebound [2][7][30] - The report highlights that the national development bond yield spread is currently at a historically high level, with mid to short-term spreads above the 70% historical percentile since 2021, and all maturities above the 80% percentile over the past one to three years [7][30] - The report identifies several reasons for the lag in recovery of the national development bond yield spread, including restrained buying sentiment from trading desks and strong demand for long-term government bonds from major banks, which has limited the recovery of the spread [3][11][30] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's bond purchases have contributed to maintaining a higher yield spread between national development bonds and government bonds, particularly affecting short-term bonds [4][19][30] - It is observed that during the recent market rebound, funds have preferred to focus on credit spreads, such as those of tier-2 capital bonds, rather than national development bonds [19][30] - The report suggests that there may be opportunities for recovery in the national development bond yield spread, as it is currently at a high percentile, while credit spreads have compressed to lower levels, indicating potential for a shift in focus towards national development bonds [5][31]