要求匿名的这位知情人士称，这笔投资需要等到当前外汇市场形势稳定后再推进。该知情人士称，企业 和散户投资者的资本外流拖累了汇率，尽管预计韩元最终会企稳。该人士未说明韩国政府是否心中有特 定的汇率水平。 2025年下半年开始以来，韩元兑美元已下跌超过8%。政策制定者采取的一系列措施和市场干预行动未 能减缓其向全球金融危机以来最弱水平下滑的趋势。作为贸易协议的一部分，韩国承诺对美累计投资 3500亿美元，这加剧了外界对韩国是否有能力支撑如此大规模资本支出的担忧。 该知情人士称，虽然美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周的表态起到了支撑作用，但现在评估其影响仍为 时过早。贝森特曾表示，韩元走弱与韩国"强劲的经济基本面"并不相符。 据一位知情人士透露，鉴于本币承压，韩国将暂缓兑现今年在美国投资最多200亿美元的承诺。 据一位知情人士透露，鉴于本币承压，韩国将暂缓兑现今年在美国投资最多200亿美元的承诺。 要求匿名的这位知情人士称，这笔投资需要等到当前外汇市场形势稳定后再推进。该知情人士称，企业 和散户投资者的资本外流拖累了汇率，尽管预计韩元最终会企稳。该人士未说明韩国政府是否心中有特 定的汇率水平。 2025年下半年开始以来， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea, led by Governor Lee Chang-yong, is actively addressing the recent volatility of the Korean won and is implementing measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market amid depreciation pressures [1] Group 1: Currency Policy and Measures - The Bank of Korea has collaborated with the Ministry of Welfare and the National Pension Service (NPS) to conduct foreign exchange hedging operations to stabilize the foreign exchange market [1] - If the foreign exchange market remains unstable, the central bank will not agree to an annual outflow of $20 billion in investment funds to the United States [1] - The government is expected to make a statement later regarding the U.S. trade agreement and the foreign exchange market [1] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The recent depreciation of the won is primarily influenced by geopolitical risks and an increase in residents' overseas investments, which has intensified capital outflow pressures [1] - Despite the depreciation, Lee emphasized that the weakness of the won does not reflect the fundamental aspects of the Korean economy, which currently has ample dollar reserves [1] - The weakening won may lead to inflationary pressures, potentially prompting an interest rate hike of about 200 to 300 basis points if the policy rate is to stabilize the foreign exchange market [1]

智通财经APP获悉，野村控股指出，韩国央行的降息周期已经结束，很可能在2026年维持利率不变，且 随着经济增长走强，下一步行动的风险如今倾向于加息。野村经济学家Jeong Woo Park表示，这一转变 反映出市场预期韩国经济明年将在更强劲的国内消费、建筑业复苏以及全球半导体上升周期的支持下， 以超过潜在增速的步伐扩张。他补充称，预计韩国经济将在明年第二季度前后弥合与潜在产出的差距， 这比韩国央行的预测更早，从而降低了进一步宽松的需求。 Jeong Woo Park表示："目前，我们的基本预测是政策利率明年将大致维持不变，但从概率角度看，我们 认为明年的风险更偏向加息而非降息。""如果韩国央行确实感受到明年下半年加息的压力，我们认为这 种压力最终将来自通胀。"他补充称，如果通胀在下半年长时间保持在央行2%的目标之上，政策制定者 可能面临越来越大的应对压力。 韩国央行自去年10月以来已累计100个基点，将政策利率从3.5%下调至2.5%。本月早些时候，韩国央行 连续第四次维持利率不变。稳健的经济增长为韩国当局提供了空间，使其能够继续专注于确保房地产市 场的回暖不会引发金融不稳定。与此同时，韩元贬值、贸易政策不确 ...

Core Insights - South Korea's exports to the United States have sharply decreased by over 40% year-on-year in the first ten days of this month, marking a significant decline in trade relations [1] - The U.S. has fallen from being South Korea's second-largest export market to the third-largest since the implementation of new U.S. tariff policies in July [1] - The recent fluctuations in the South Korean won's exchange rate have raised concerns, prompting the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea to issue a joint statement emphasizing their vigilance and monitoring of market trends [1] Export Market Dynamics - The U.S. has historically been a key market for South Korean exports, but recent tariff policies have negatively impacted this relationship [1] - The decline in exports to the U.S. reflects broader challenges in South Korea's trade environment [1] Currency Fluctuations - The South Korean won has experienced significant volatility, which is a critical factor affecting export performance [1] - The joint statement from the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea indicates a proactive approach to managing currency fluctuations, marking the first verbal intervention in over a year and a half [1]

韩元跌幅扩大至0.7%，韩国股市回吐涨幅。 ...