Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The accelerated decline in recent market conditions has made downstream buyers more cautious, and the limited volume of transactions at low - price points has limited support for the overall market. Due to the decline in downstream futures and a bearish outlook for the later market, buying intentions are low [2]. - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, with market offers falling further. Traders' offer sentiment is poor, and there is still pressure on transaction follow - up. Terminal buyers are cautious, and the focus of actual transactions is at the lower end of the range [3]. - In the short term, the weak operation of butadiene has driven down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. Butadiene rubber is gradually entering a pattern of high production, high inventory, and high profit, and is expected to have a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games in the short term, with the medium - term price center gradually moving downward [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (December contract) decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 10,805 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 19,544 lots to 112,436 lots, open interest decreased by 967 lots to 48,651 lots, and turnover decreased by 117,842 ten - thousand yuan to 611,228 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 140 to 195, and the monthly spread (BR11 - BR12, private enterprise) remained unchanged at 60. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton each. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 69.0377%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to 10,946 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 97 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, with prices in Shandong's Luzhong area around 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton and in East China's ex - tank self - pick - up around 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton [2]. - Taking the Daqing BR9000 in Shandong as a benchmark, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber closed at 10,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, exceeding the morning's expectations. The market offer has declined further, and the reference price of private butadiene rubber in the northern region is 10,600 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a bearish view [3].