Group 1 - The postponement of the US-Korea "2+2" tariff negotiations indicates a potential cooling of US-Korea relations, as this is not the first time the US has canceled meetings with South Korea [1][4] - The US is pressuring South Korea to follow Japan's example by opening its market to US agricultural products, which South Korea has deemed unacceptable [3][6] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which involved significant concessions from Japan, puts additional pressure on South Korea to comply with similar demands [5][7] Group 2 - South Korea's agricultural sector may face severe challenges if it agrees to US demands, as the influx of US agricultural products could harm local farmers [6][7] - The relationship between the US and South Korea appears increasingly unequal, with the US seemingly disregarding South Korea's interests in negotiations [4][10] - South Korea's economic ties with China are significant, with bilateral trade exceeding $300 billion, suggesting that maintaining a balanced approach in foreign relations is crucial for South Korea [7][10] Group 3 - The South Korean government is urged to reassess its relationship with the US, recognizing that the US's recent actions may be a tactic to force concessions [10] - There is a call for South Korea to protect its economic interests and not to follow Japan's path of significant concessions under pressure [8][10] - The future of US-Korea relations will depend on South Korea's ability to assert its interests and negotiate from a position of strength [10]

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung prioritizes economic revitalization, focusing on high-tech industries like AI and semiconductors to enhance competitiveness and create jobs [1][4]. Economic Policy and Market Response - Lee Jae-myung's administration aims to address multiple economic challenges, including regional development disparities and job creation [1][4]. - Following Lee's inauguration, the KOSPI index rose over 4%, rebounding more than 20% from April lows, nearing a bull market [1][8]. - The South Korean won appreciated by 1.50% against the US dollar, reaching a recent high of 1351.80 [1]. Political Stability and Governance - The end of political vacuum is expected to improve the political risk index in South Korea, with a current score of 18.85, down from over 20 [4][8]. - Lee's government is anticipated to have a stable political environment until at least the 2028 National Assembly elections, enhancing policy implementation capabilities [1][4]. Trade Relations and Tariff Negotiations - The new government is prioritizing tariff negotiations with the US, with a focus on reaching a comprehensive agreement by July 8 [5][6]. - The outcome of these negotiations is critical, as South Korea's exports to the US in sectors like automobiles and steel face significant tariffs [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Despite a 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025, market expectations for South Korea's economic growth are improving, with forecasts for real GDP growth adjusted upwards by major financial institutions [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.7% to 1.1%, while Morgan Stanley adjusted its projections for 2025 and 2026 to 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively [9][10]. Investment Sentiment - Lee's commitment to boosting the stock market, with aspirations for the KOSPI index to reach 5000 points, has attracted renewed interest from global asset management firms [10].