以下文章来源于餐饮供应链指南 ，作者餐饮供应链指南 餐饮供应链指南 . 红餐网旗下，餐饮供应链专业媒体 本文来自微信公众号： 餐饮供应链指南 ，作者：春莹，编辑：景雪，题图来自：AI生成 "当前6.8万家预制菜企业中，5年后仅约5000间存活。"近日，经济学家宋清辉针对预制菜行业未来的 走势，做出如是判断。 "五年倒闭九成"的冷酷预言一出，让本就波澜暗涌的预制菜行业又激起了一层涟漪。 与之相应的是，网友们还在忙着总结"拒绝预制菜餐厅"白名单，抵触情绪和信任危机短时间内很难完 全解除。 所以，预制菜这行是真的要凉了吗？ 在餐饮供应链指南看来，凉透倒不至于，但未来确实会有一批玩家会被洗牌出局，死得很难看。 一、寒冬将至，先死一批 预制菜行业的寒意，大部分企业都已经明显感受到。 首先，从市场流通情况来看，预制菜的需求正在萎缩。 不少咨询、证券等机构出具的数据显示，预制菜B端与C端消费占比约为8:2，还是以餐饮企业为主的 B端市场占据了主体地位。这其中，又属纯外卖店 （即无堂食门店） 对预制菜的需求更为强烈。一 个20-30平左右的档口，只用一个加热的电磁炉，一个打包台，就能开张。预制菜料理包，完美匹配 了纯外卖店的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pre-prepared food industry is facing significant challenges, with predictions that only about 5,000 out of the current 68,000 companies will survive in the next five years, indicating a potential 90% failure rate [1][18]. Industry Overview - The pre-prepared food sector is experiencing a downturn, with major companies reporting substantial profit declines. For instance, the first listed company in this sector, Weizhi Xiang, saw a net profit drop of 24.46% year-on-year, while Huifa Foods' losses increased from 16.43 million to 29.99 million [3][4]. - The demand for pre-prepared food is shrinking, particularly in the B2B market, which constitutes about 80% of the consumption, primarily driven by takeout restaurants [5][16]. Market Dynamics - The rise of "ghost kitchens" and the shift towards more transparent dining experiences are reshaping the market. The introduction of initiatives like Meituan's "brand satellite store" and JD's "Qixian Xiaochu" indicates a move towards fresh, made-to-order meals, which could further diminish the demand for pre-prepared meals [8][11]. - Regulatory measures are tightening around "ghost kitchens," which may further reduce the market for low-quality pre-prepared food products [11][16]. Consumer Sentiment - There is a growing distrust among consumers towards pre-prepared meals, with many expressing a preference for freshly cooked options. This sentiment is reflected in the increasing number of restaurants promoting "live cooking" experiences [16][15]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, there is still potential for growth in the pre-prepared food market, particularly as consumer lifestyles evolve. The penetration rates of pre-prepared meals in countries like the U.S. and Japan exceed 60%, suggesting that similar trends could emerge in China [19][31]. - The increasing chain restaurant model in China, with a projected rise in chain restaurant rates from 15% in 2020 to 25% by 2025, may create opportunities for high-quality pre-prepared food products [28][31]. Conclusion - The pre-prepared food industry is expected to undergo significant restructuring, with a reduction in the number of players. However, there remains a possibility for some companies to thrive by focusing on quality and transparency, ultimately reshaping the industry's value proposition [33].