是金融体系已对新常态充分定价，还是在集体乐观中走向认知盲区？面对愈发频繁的"黑天鹅"与"灰犀 牛"，普通人又该如何守护自己的财富与未来？ 近日，2003年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、ARCH模型创始人罗伯特·恩格尔，在《两说》中给出了他的观察 与预警。这位刻画波动率、洞察风险轨迹的学术巨擘，将如何拆解2026的风险图景，又为普通投资者指 出怎样的应对之策？ 当全球市场在关税冲突、AI变革、地缘震荡与气候危机的叠加冲击中持续震荡，一个关键问题愈发清 晰：我们是否真正识别了潜藏的风险？ 风险正在被低估 但市场仍在"自我安慰" "2025年是充满变数的一年。"恩格尔列举了当前几大不确定性来源：关税政策、美国国内的反科学浪 潮、移民问题、持续的两场战争……这些事件不断推高市场波动，却又似乎并未引起足够的警惕。 "令我意外的是，市场并不认为这些事件会持续发酵，反而觉得我们能妥善应对。"恩格尔表示，这种乐 观可能是一种错觉。他担心，这些问题未必会以"增强经济韧性、保持增长"的方式解决。 主持人追问："也就是说，市场低估了这些风险？"恩格尔回答："是的。当然，也许市场是对的。我也 希望市场是对的。"但他随即补充："我们都希望市场是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the underestimation of risks in the current market environment, highlighting the need for awareness and preparedness among investors as uncertainties rise due to various global factors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Engel identifies several sources of uncertainty for 2025, including tariff policies, anti-science sentiments in the U.S., immigration issues, and ongoing wars, which are increasing market volatility without sufficient caution from investors [3][4]. - The prevailing market optimism may be a false sense of security, as Engel warns that these issues may not resolve in a way that enhances economic resilience or growth [4][5]. Group 2: ARCH Model Insights - Engel's ARCH model, introduced in 1982, quantifies the phenomenon of "volatility clustering" in financial markets, indicating that high volatility is often followed by more high volatility [8]. - The model serves as a tool for monitoring global financial conditions rather than predicting specific market movements, focusing on when volatility is likely to rise or fall [9]. Group 3: Trade Wars, AI, and Policy - Engel compares current trade wars to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, suggesting that tariffs are detrimental to both parties involved and are unlikely to be sustainable [12]. - He views AI not as an independent source of market volatility but as a probabilistic tool that should assist human decision-making, cautioning against over-reliance on automated trading systems [12]. - Engel stresses the importance of gradual and predictable policy adjustments to mitigate risks, as sudden changes can lead to reduced investment and consumption, further slowing economic growth [12]. Group 4: Strategies for Individual Investors - For non-professional investors, Engel advises against attempting market timing and suggests using volatility control indices that adjust positions based on market volatility levels [15]. - He recommends constructing a diversified investment portfolio with a defined volatility target, emphasizing disciplined risk management over speculative market predictions [16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Engel expresses concern about three major issues for 2026: escalation of wars, the re-emergence of stagflation, and stagnation in climate action, while remaining hopeful about improved U.S.-China relations [19][20]. - He believes that better collaboration between the U.S. and China could help address inflation and deflation issues, benefiting both countries and the global economy [20].