Global Macro Trends - Recent performance of global asset classes has shown divergence, with a significant rebound in the US dollar index and a general decline in commodities, while emerging markets have outperformed developed markets [3][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving global asset allocation landscape, emphasizing the need for long-term investors to understand the reshaping of world order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [4][11]. - The strategy is influenced by three underlying logics: increasing de-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry. The focus remains on an all-weather strategy that adjusts for asymmetrical pricing risks [4][11]. - A statistical analysis of historical asset volatility during US recession periods has been conducted, ranking assets by their volatility amplification factors. The order is as follows: Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, Hang Seng Tech, US Treasuries, Gold, China Bonds, Bitcoin, Convertible Bonds, and A-share dividends [4][11]. - Adjustments to asset allocation weights have been made based on the revised volatility factors, increasing the weight of Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while decreasing the weight of Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [4][11]. Economic Indicators and Data - The US financial conditions index has shown improvement, indicating a relaxation in overall financial conditions [5][17]. - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index has recorded positive values, suggesting that economic data has been exceeding market expectations [5][19]. - There is an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the US, which has negatively impacted consumer confidence [5][28]. - Historical trends indicate that deteriorating consumer confidence in the US often leads to increased volatility in the stock market [5][31]. Upcoming Economic Events - A calendar of significant upcoming economic data releases and events has been outlined, including consumer confidence indices, interest rate decisions, and GDP reports from various regions [14].

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Global major asset classes experienced a broad rally from June 16 to June 24, with risk assets represented by equities showing significant recovery [4][12] - The ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in global risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold retreated [4][13] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, while paying attention to asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios [5][17] - The new paradigm is reinforced by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, with the strategic focus remaining on the all-weather adjustment of the "global barbell strategy" [5][18] - A statistical analysis of historical U.S. recession trading intervals revealed the volatility amplification factors for various assets, with the ranking being: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese Bonds > Bitcoin > National Bond Convertible Bonds > A-share Dividends [5][18] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on revised volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [5][18] Focus Data: Global Economic Data and Event Calendar - The economic data calendar from June 30 to July 13 includes significant indicators such as China's official manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 49.5, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 48.5 [20] - Other important data points include the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone CPI for June, with the latter expected to be 1.9% [20]