Global Macro Trends - The "再TACO" trading process indicates a weak rebound in stock risk appetite, with Bitcoin experiencing a significant drop and gold's decline slowing down [3][9] - External liquidity is tightening, influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and marginal fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's December rate cut expectations [3][9] - The domestic focus is on the recently announced 15th Five-Year Plan, which highlights key areas for future attention [10][13] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving global asset allocation landscape in a post-fragile era, emphasizing three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in AI industries [4][15] - Strategic asset allocation includes Chinese interest rate bonds, U.S. short-term government bonds, Chinese convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][15] - Tactical recommendations suggest a shift towards high-dividend and thematic growth stocks in the A-share market, reflecting a similar market environment to that of 2014-2015, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and policy encouragement [16] Market Dynamics and Trends - The A-share market has shown a more distinct style compared to the Hong Kong market, with a notable effect of retail investors moving their savings into the stock market [16] - The report suggests maintaining a barbell strategy that combines high-dividend stocks with growth-oriented investments, particularly in the context of short-term market fluctuations [5][16] Economic Indicators and Data - Key economic indicators and events are scheduled for release, including China's CPI and PPI, U.S. CPI, and various Eurozone economic metrics, which are deemed important for market analysis [18][19] - The report tracks significant financial data, including the widening SOFR-OIS spread and the marginal decline in the U.S. financial conditions index, reflecting liquidity pressures [5][24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global asset prices due to heightened risk aversion stemming from US-China tariff issues, leading to significant volatility in precious metals and a weak rebound in risk assets [3][9][10] - The US government shutdown continues, and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain high, with a 98% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [9][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy directions as significant meetings approach, particularly regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan in China [10] Group 2 - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm, focusing on three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [4][13] - The strategic asset allocation includes Chinese interest rate bonds, US short-term treasuries, convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][13] - The tactical approach suggests that the current market resembles the A-share market conditions of 2014-2015, characterized by weak economic performance, low interest rates, and policy encouragement, with a focus on high-dividend and thematic growth stocks [4][14] Group 3 - Key economic data and events are outlined, including upcoming GDP releases from Germany and the Eurozone, as well as manufacturing PMI data from China and the US [15][17] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the economic surprise index and financial conditions index in the US, which reflect the overall financial pressure levels and economic performance relative to market expectations [5][29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated performance of global major asset classes, with Chinese equity assets leading the rise and industrial metals experiencing a broad increase due to domestic policies and infrastructure plans [3][4] - The "global barbell strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of Chinese interest rate bonds, US short-term treasuries, and high-quality growth stocks [4][8] - Recent data indicates a widening SOFR-OIS spread, reflecting tightening liquidity in the US repo market, and a decline in the US financial conditions index, suggesting a deterioration in overall financial conditions [4][14] Group 2 - The tactical approach suggests that the current market resembles a micro-version of the 2014-2015 A-share market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies, with domestic capital driving the market [8][29] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators, such as China's industrial enterprise profits and the US ADP employment change, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [11][12] - The focus on high-quality growth stocks aligns with the trend of residents reallocating savings into the stock market, favoring thematic investments that meet high-quality development directions [4][8]

Global Macro Trends - Recent performance of global asset classes has shown divergence, with a significant rebound in the US dollar index and a general decline in commodities, while emerging markets have outperformed developed markets [3][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving global asset allocation landscape, emphasizing the need for long-term investors to understand the reshaping of world order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [4][11]. - The strategy is influenced by three underlying logics: increasing de-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry. The focus remains on an all-weather strategy that adjusts for asymmetrical pricing risks [4][11]. - A statistical analysis of historical asset volatility during US recession periods has been conducted, ranking assets by their volatility amplification factors. The order is as follows: Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, Hang Seng Tech, US Treasuries, Gold, China Bonds, Bitcoin, Convertible Bonds, and A-share dividends [4][11]. - Adjustments to asset allocation weights have been made based on the revised volatility factors, increasing the weight of Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while decreasing the weight of Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [4][11]. Economic Indicators and Data - The US financial conditions index has shown improvement, indicating a relaxation in overall financial conditions [5][17]. - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index has recorded positive values, suggesting that economic data has been exceeding market expectations [5][19]. - There is an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the US, which has negatively impacted consumer confidence [5][28]. - Historical trends indicate that deteriorating consumer confidence in the US often leads to increased volatility in the stock market [5][31]. Upcoming Economic Events - A calendar of significant upcoming economic data releases and events has been outlined, including consumer confidence indices, interest rate decisions, and GDP reports from various regions [14].

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Global major asset classes experienced a broad rally from June 16 to June 24, with risk assets represented by equities showing significant recovery [4][12] - The ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in global risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold retreated [4][13] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, while paying attention to asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios [5][17] - The new paradigm is reinforced by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, with the strategic focus remaining on the all-weather adjustment of the "global barbell strategy" [5][18] - A statistical analysis of historical U.S. recession trading intervals revealed the volatility amplification factors for various assets, with the ranking being: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese Bonds > Bitcoin > National Bond Convertible Bonds > A-share Dividends [5][18] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on revised volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [5][18] Focus Data: Global Economic Data and Event Calendar - The economic data calendar from June 30 to July 13 includes significant indicators such as China's official manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 49.5, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 48.5 [20] - Other important data points include the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone CPI for June, with the latter expected to be 1.9% [20]