自由现金流ETF（159201）成分股聚焦自由现金流充裕的行业龙头，行业覆盖家用电器、汽车、有色金 属、电力设备、石油石化等高壁垒领域，行业分散性显著，有效规避单一行业波动风险，是底仓配置的 有利选择。基金管理年费率0.15%，托管年费率0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 10月10日，A股三大指数集体低开，国证自由现金流指数低开后震荡上行，现涨约0.5%。成分股中，国 电南自、联发股份、白银有色涨停，秦安股份、海陆重工、兔宝宝、星湖科技等领涨。相关ETF方面， 同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）跟随指数上行，成交额率先突破2亿元，交投活跃。 东吴证券认为，传统日历效应下，长假后市场多呈现"涨多跌少"的格局。且今年长假前2个交易日，市 场已出现资金提前博弈反弹的动作，因此后市指数层面需重视量价的配合情况。长假期间，内外部消息 面较积极，尤其是美联储降息预期升温、AI产业趋势催化显著，预计短期内市场风格或偏向具备产业 消息面催化、远期成长属性更强和估值更低的方向。 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3883 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 1.59 | | 深证综指 | 2519 | 0.44 | 3.1 | 2.12 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.3 | 3.22 | 19.97 | | 中盘指数 | 1.01 | 6.43 | 27.65 | | 小盘指数 | 1.04 | 2.12 | 22.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源金属 | 5.91 | 24.79 | 66.07 | | 航空装备Ⅱ | 3.49 | -4.64 | 23.62 | | 小金属Ⅱ | 3.41 | -6.08 | 62.35 | | 医疗服务Ⅱ | 3.09 | 1.81 | 32.18 | | 航天装 ...

[Table_Title] 国内风险可控，外部环境友好 [宏Ta观bl经e_济Rep分or析tD报ate告] | 2025.9.30 核心观点 韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] 相关研究 [Tabl国e_内Su：m三ma季ry度] 央行例会对经济态度较为积极和肯定，短期降息的迫切性 似乎不高。政策的工作重心从"部署"转向"执行与效能"，关注点聚 焦于将已出台的政策工具用足用好，充分释放政策效应。经济复苏趋势 已经形成，当前需进一步巩固拓展，政策的结构性支持方向更为全面和 清晰。在房地产和银行资本问题上，政策关注点从"短期应对"转向"长 期制度安排"。总体来看，三季度例会的核心思路是：在确认经济复苏 势头和风险可控后，将工作重点从应对危机模式下的"强刺激"，切换 至常态化下的"稳增长、提质量、防风险"并重的新阶段。 国内相对平稳，A 股市场与海外科技股的联动性显著增强。若美股科技 龙头能维持强劲 ...

Global Macro Trends - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, leading to structural differentiation in global asset prices, with risk assets performing strongly overall but with notable differences among categories. Gold and U.S. stocks reached new highs, while Bitcoin experienced a significant decline [3][9]. - Economic data released on September 15 indicated a marginal slowdown in China's macroeconomic growth, with industrial output, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all showing slight declines compared to previous values, suggesting ongoing pressure on the economic fundamentals and increasing the likelihood of future easing policies [3][9]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm characterized by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in AI industries. This strategy includes allocations to Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term treasuries, Chinese convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][12]. - A tactical approach suggests that the A-share market is driven by domestic funds, similar to the microcosm of the 2014-2015 market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies. The strategy involves reducing high-dividend allocations and increasing exposure to more elastic assets [5][12]. Key Economic Indicators - The report highlights several key economic indicators and events, including the upcoming release of China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs, U.S. ADP employment changes, and Eurozone CPI data, all of which are deemed important for market participants [15][16]. - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has been positive but shows a declining trend, indicating that recent economic reports have been weaker than market expectations [21][23]. Financial Conditions - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a more relaxed overall financial environment, while the SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating some tightening in dollar liquidity [4][26]. - The report notes an increase in expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and policy adjustments [24][25]. Market Sentiment - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential risks from overseas markets as the domestic holiday approaches, advising on risk control measures [3][9]. - The ongoing trend of household savings moving into the stock market is expected to favor thematic investments aligned with high-quality growth directions, with a focus on maintaining high liquidity and growth potential in the A-share market [5][12].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining core investment themes while exploring new platforms in the A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][4] - Key recommended sectors include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military industry, financial IT, power equipment, and agricultural products [3] - The report anticipates a more abundant liquidity environment due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may enhance market expectations [4][10] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected to steadily decline, with GDP growth expected at 5.0% for 2025, and 4.6% for Q4 2025 [10][11] - Consumer retail sales are forecasted to grow by 3.8% for the year, with a significant slowdown in investment across various sectors, particularly in real estate, which is expected to decline by 14.3% [10][11] - The report highlights that while exports are expected to maintain a high level of activity, a slight decline in growth is anticipated in Q4 due to high base effects from the previous year [19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated recovery of the RMB exchange rate, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may attract foreign capital inflows [42][61] - It notes that the central bank has a clear intention to guide the RMB towards appreciation, which is crucial for maintaining market liquidity [47][61] - The report also indicates that the RMB's appreciation could lead to increased foreign investment in domestic stocks, enhancing overall market liquidity [61][62]

短暂震荡整固后，多头在本周再度发起攻势，沪指于9月12日盘中再度刷新十年新高至3892.74点；深指盘中一度站上13000点，创下2022年以来新 高。 不过，指数冲高后出现回落走势，截至9月12日收盘，上证综指跌0.12%，报3870.6点；科创50指数涨0.9%，报1338.02点；深证成指跌0.43%，报 12924.13点；创业板指跌1.09%，报3020.42点。 经历了"急涨—急跌—再反弹"，当下A股处在什么位置？ 对此，多家机构认为，当前市场运行或许仍在上行周期，由于前期市场涨速较快，在经过调整后，增量资金节奏可能会更加健康，但其间指数波 动预计会加大。另有公募基金指出，从基本面、政策面、海外面以及资金面四个角度看，未来A股缓步上行或是大势所趋。 从估值角度，当前市场运行或许仍在上行周期 本周A股三大指数均实现周线上涨，市场呈现"权重搭台、成长唱戏"的格局。 | 指数名称 | 周涨跌幅 | PE (TTM) | 2010年以来 | PB | 2010年以来 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | PE分位数 | | PB分位数 | | 恒生 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the domestic computing power sector in China, particularly in the context of AI demand and technological advancements. The market is expected to outperform previous cycles due to strong demand and supply dynamics [1][2]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - **Recommended Stocks**: Dongwu Securities recommends four key stocks: Yuanwang, Xiyuan Co., Shengke Communication, and Zhaoyi Innovation. Additionally, from a GPU perspective, Cambricon is favored, while Haiguang Information is selected based on valuation and expected growth [1][3]. - **Cambricon's Projections**: Expected revenue of 50 billion RMB and profit of 20 billion RMB by 2026, with a potential market cap of 1 trillion RMB if a 50x PE ratio is applied [1][5]. - **Haiguang Information's Performance**: The stock has risen 20% recently, driven by positive market sentiment and strategic partnerships with major clients like Alibaba and Honor [1][6]. Market Trends and Catalysts - **AI Demand**: ByteDance anticipates a daily issuance of 500 trillion tokens by 2026, indicating robust demand for AI technologies [1][2]. - **Technological Developments**: The launch of new products such as Kunlun's 32-card and Shuguang's 96-card supercomputers signifies a shift towards high-performance domestic computing power chips [1][7]. - **Supernode Market Potential**: The domestic supernode cabinet market is projected to reach a scale of approximately 4.3 billion USD by 2027, with Shengke Communication potentially capturing 50% market share, leading to significant revenue and profit growth [3][12]. Strategic Insights - **Domestic Supernode Importance**: The development of domestic supernodes is crucial for the industry, with significant advancements expected in 2026 [1][7]. - **Shift in Chip Supply**: The trend towards domestic supply chains is reinforced by geopolitical factors, including restrictions on advanced chip exports from the US [10]. - **Investment in AI and 5G**: Besides AI, the company also recommends investments in 5G and advanced manufacturing sectors, highlighting the strategic importance of companies like SMIC [15][16]. Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: The domestic supernode cabinet shipments are expected to reach 30,000 units by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the sector [12]. - **Continued Monitoring**: Investors are encouraged to stay updated on the latest developments in the domestic computing power sector, as significant opportunities are anticipated in the near future [18].

Core Insights - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, with many funds choosing to end their fundraising early due to increased investor confidence and demand for equity products since the market's notable rebound in 2024 [1][4]. Fund Issuance Trends - In September, 10 equity funds have announced early closures of their fundraising, contributing to a total of 13 funds that have done so this month [2][3]. - The new fund issuance market has shown warmth, with 54 new funds established in September, of which 47 are equity funds, accounting for nearly 90% of total issuances [6]. Fund Performance and Demand - The total issuance scale for stock and mixed funds since September has reached approximately 35.2 billion, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion, marking a monthly record high for average issuance scale in nearly two years [6]. - Notably, the "Zhaoshang Balanced Preferred Mixed Fund" achieved a subscription scale exceeding 8 billion on its launch day, ultimately reaching a final scale of 4.955 billion, making it the largest actively managed equity fund established this year [6]. Market Environment and Investor Sentiment - Analysts attribute the rapid fundraising closures to a combination of market conditions, investor demand, and proactive adjustments by fund companies to seize market opportunities [4]. - The current market environment reflects a recovery in investor confidence, with a shift towards a "structural slow bull" market characterized by a focus on both safety and returns through balanced asset allocation strategies [8][9]. Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation approach, utilizing strategies such as "core + satellite" or barbell strategies to manage risk and enhance returns [8][9]. - There is an emphasis on investing in undervalued large-cap growth assets and emerging technology assets expected to perform well in the next 1-2 quarters, alongside opportunities in cyclical commodities benefiting from improved liquidity [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by increased investor confidence and proactive strategies from fund companies to capitalize on market opportunities [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since September, there have been multiple instances of equity funds ending their fundraising early, with 10 equity funds having done so [3][5]. - The market has seen a resurgence in "daylight funds," where some funds sold out on the first day of issuance due to reaching their fundraising limits [5]. - As of September 10, 54 new funds have been established in September, with equity funds (stock and mixed) making up nearly 90% of the total issuance [7]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The total issuance scale for stock and mixed funds in September has reached approximately 35.2 billion yuan, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion yuan, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale in nearly two years [7]. - Notably, the "Zhaoshang Balanced Preferred Mixed Fund" raised over 8 billion yuan on its first day, resulting in a final establishment scale of 4.955 billion yuan, the largest for an actively managed equity fund this year [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a "core + satellite" or barbell approach to manage risk and returns [8]. - The market is expected to exhibit a "structural slow bull" characteristic, with a focus on low-position blue-chip stocks and high-elasticity sectors such as digital economy and specialized new technologies [8]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of liquidity and the potential for investment opportunities in commodities and sectors like non-consumer-related new consumption [9].

Core Insights - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, with a notable increase in investor confidence and demand for equity products since the market's substantial recovery in 2024 [1][3] Fund Issuance Trends - In September, 10 equity funds have chosen to end their fundraising early, contributing to a total of 13 funds that have announced early closures this month [2][4] - The new fund issuance market has seen a total of 54 funds established by September 10, with stock and mixed funds accounting for 47 of these, representing nearly 90% of total issuances [4] Fund Performance and Demand - The combined issuance scale of stock and mixed funds since September has reached approximately 35.2 billion, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale in nearly two years [4] - Specific funds, such as the招商均衡优选混合, achieved a subscription scale exceeding 8 billion on the first day of fundraising, resulting in a final establishment scale of 4.955 billion, the largest for an actively managed equity fund this year [4] Market Environment and Investor Sentiment - The rapid fundraising closures are attributed to a combination of market conditions, investor demand, and proactive adjustments by fund companies [3] - Analysts indicate that the recovery in the domestic equity market has led to a gradual restoration of investor confidence and increased enthusiasm for equity products [3] Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a "core + satellite" or barbell approach to balance safety and returns [5][6] - The current market environment, characterized by liquidity easing, is expected to favor sectors such as technology and commodities, with potential investment opportunities in cyclical goods and emerging technologies [6][7]