策 略 研 究 噤若寒蝉：风偏下行压制全球权益表现 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) 战术性资产配置周度点评（20251124） 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们建议战术性超配 A/H 股，战术性标 配美股、美债、黄金与人民币。 鸽声渐起：超配权益待新高，债券迎配置时机 2025.08.24 各项大类资产本周波动较大，国内资产 BL 策略 本周录得正收益 2025.04.16 引火烧身：特朗普政策反复削弱美元信用 2025.04.14 美债遭遇抛售潮，A 股消费风格估值回升 2025.04.13 紧急避险：关税战争压制全球风险偏好 2025.04.07 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-38038293 | | --- | --- | | | wangziyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | | | 方奕(分析师) | | | 021-38031658 | | | fangyi2 ...

Group 1 - The week of November 24-30 will see the release of China's October industrial profits and November official manufacturing PMI data [1] - Several Chinese concept stocks will disclose their Q3 earnings, including Alibaba, Meituan, Li Auto, and NIO [1] - Huawei will hold a product launch event for the Mate80 series and a new GPU from the first domestic GPU company, Moer Thread, will be available for subscription [1] Group 2 - On November 24, domestic refined oil will enter a new round of price adjustment [1] - On November 25, Huawei's product launch will feature the Mate80 series and new Kirin chips, alongside the release of the US September PPI year-on-year [1] - On November 26, the US Department of Commerce will release the revised Q3 GDP, personal income, spending, and PCE price index for October [1] Group 3 - A total of 38 stocks will face the unlocking of restricted shares this week, with a total unlocking volume of 1.914 billion shares, valued at 21.305 billion yuan [1] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are China Southern Airlines (5.689 billion yuan), Feiling Technology (1.871 billion yuan), and Huaton Co., Ltd. (1.742 billion yuan) [2] Group 4 - The National Internet Information Office and the Ministry of Public Security have drafted regulations for personal information protection on large online platforms, seeking public opinion [3] - The regulations require platform providers to designate a personal information protection officer and establish a dedicated protection work unit [3] Group 5 - China Tourism Group is leading the establishment of a new central enterprise for cruise operations, following a meeting organized by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4] - The new cruise operation platform will have the largest fleet in Asia after the professional integration [4] Group 6 - Beijing is revising the model contracts for commodity housing sales for the first time in eight years, aiming to protect buyers' rights [4] - The revised contracts will clarify the importance of pre-registration and streamline the process to prevent issues like "one house sold multiple times" [4] Group 7 - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China has been completed and is currently in small-batch testing [5] - The new battery technology reportedly has an energy density nearly double that of existing batteries, with plans for small-batch vehicle testing by 2026 [5] Group 8 - The Ministry of Finance has announced that electronic savings bonds will be included in the personal pension product range [6] - Institutions will adjust the allocation ratio of pension-specific quotas quarterly based on the amount of unsold savings bonds [6] Group 9 - China has officially launched a commercial trial for satellite IoT services, which will enhance the satellite communication market and support emerging industries [7] Group 10 - Wentech Technology has urged Nexperia Netherlands to resolve control issues that threaten the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [8] - The company emphasizes the need for constructive dialogue to restore its legitimate control and shareholder rights [8] Group 11 - The US and Ukraine are set to hold talks in Switzerland regarding a peace plan to end the conflict, with Ukraine aiming for a dignified resolution [9] - This week, two new stocks will be issued on the A-share market, including Moer Thread and Bai Ao Sai Tu [9]

中信证券：当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 11月23日，十大券商最新策略观点新鲜出炉，具体如下： | 券商 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 当下风险提前释放给了年末重新增配A股/港股、布局2026年的契机 | | 华安证券 | AI主线"至暗时刻" 但长期信心坚定不移 | | 国金证券 | 打铁还需自身硬 | | 信达证券 | 风格切换可能会越来越强 关注低位价值板块 | | 中泰证券 | 本轮科技行情远未结束 在短期回调后有望延续 | | 兴业证券 | 中国资产有望迎来修复 | | 非金证券 | 短期继续均衡配置补涨的成长和低估值价值行业 | | 申万宏源 | 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" | | 浙商证券 | 切勿盲目杀跌 盯券商、等待弹性重扩张 | | 东吴证券 | 资金主线有望向AI应用等方向切换 | 全球风险资产的波动表面是流动性问题，本质是风险资产对于AI单一叙事过于依赖，当产业发展速度（尤其是商业 化）跟不上二级市场的节奏时，适当的估值修正也是一种纾解风险的方式。北京时间周四（11月20日）晚，美国非农 就业数据的公布以及年内美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]

申万宏源傅静涛："牛市1.0"科技结构牛可能在2026年春季来到高峰 相关快讯 21世纪经济报道 孙永乐 相关文章 2025-11-18 12:21 南方财经11月18日电，在"乘势而上"申万宏源·2026资本市场投资年会上，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分 析师傅静涛提出"牛市两段论"，2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高 点；2026H2可能启动全面牛，构成"牛市2.0"阶段。"牛市1.0"科技结构牛难免要"中场休息"，可能在 2026年春季来到高峰：AI产业趋势还有纵深，但A股AI产业链股价已处于长期低性价比区域。这神似 2014年初的创业板，2018年初的食品饮料和2021年初的新能源。历史上，通常需经历"怀疑牛市级别"的 调整，再延续产业趋势行情。（21世纪经济报道） 南方财经11月18日电，在"乘势而上"申万宏源·2026资本市场投资年会上，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分 析师傅静涛提出"牛市两段论"，2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高 点；2026H2可能启动全面牛，构成"牛市2.0"阶段。"牛市1.0"科技结构牛难免要"中场休息" ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 40.58 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.83%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.32 billion yuan, up 66.89% year-on-year [5][11] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.92%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.73 billion yuan, up 22.94% year-on-year but down 25.33% quarter-on-quarter due to the impact of equity incentive expenses [5][11] - The company is actively seizing opportunities in the AI industry, with significant increases in shipments of DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance computing chips, contributing to substantial growth in operating performance [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 61.46%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from interconnect chips was 38.32 billion yuan, up 61.21% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 64.83% [11] - The company expects the demand for DDR5 memory interface chips and high-performance computing chips to continue to grow significantly in 2025, driven by trends in the AI industry [11] Research and Development - The company invested 5.33 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of 2025, with an R&D expense ratio of 13.14%. It has launched new products such as the CXL 3.x MXC chip and is actively developing PCIe Switch chips [11] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 21.97 billion yuan, 30.13 billion yuan, and 37.40 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.92 yuan, 2.63 yuan, and 3.27 yuan [11]

隔夜，现货黄金收盘下跌23.90美元，报4171.36美元，金价盘中曾触及 4244.94美元，是10月21日以来最高。今日欧市盘中，黄金窄幅震荡，目前在4171美元附近徘徊。 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，道琼斯指数下跌797.6点，跌幅1.65%；标普500指数下跌113.43点，跌幅1.66%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌536.10 点，跌幅2.29%。 12月降息概率骤降！ 消息面上，美国政府长时间的停摆制造了一个巨大的经济"数据真空"，这直接打了市场对美联储的降息预期。 隔夜，美国劳工统计局未能如期公布美国10月CPI报告。此前白宫表示，可能永远不会发布美国10月CPI和就业数据，所有数据发布都将永久性被破坏， 这使得美联储的政策制定者更加茫然。 另外，白宫国家经济委员会主任、美国总统特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特于当地时间13日直言，10月的非农就业报告将在没有失业率数据的情况下 发布。 分析人士指出，非农就业报告的缺失或不完整可能加大投资者对美国经济走势的疑虑。 在当前经济不确定性上升、货币政策路径备受关注的背景下，就业与通胀数据的推迟发布，意味着金融市场在短期内可能面临信息真空。 此外，部 ...

◎记者 朱妍 沪指4000点"争夺战"仍在上演。近期，科技赛道回调，消费、银行等板块接棒上行，市场风格与行业板 块轮动加快，公募也在调整布局。多位基金经理表示，当下更关注持仓结构的优化，着力挖掘并捕捉具 备阿尔法的优质标的。 上证指数围绕4000点反复震荡，主动权益类基金整体仓位维持在历史高位。据信达证券测算，截至11月 9日，普通股票型基金的平均仓位约为91.46%，较11月2日的91.34%提升0.12个百分点。同时，偏股混合 型基金同期平均仓位为89.92%，"固收+"基金的平均仓位环比提升0.03个百分点。 "市场波动加剧，我在投资上没有三季度那么激进，但也没降低仓位，而是进行了持仓结构的优化。一 边加入消费、红利等资产；一边寻找个股阿尔法，以提升产品的超额收益。"沪上某权益类基金经理透 露。 与此同时，11月以来公募基金的新发节奏还在提升。公募排排网数据显示，按认购起始日统计，11月10 日至16日这一周，全市场共有39只新基金启动募集，环比增长5.41%，且11月以来已连续两周增长。 从近期新基金的建仓节奏看，许多基金已在震荡中快速出手。Choice数据显示，近三个月（8月12日至 11月12日） ...

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.0 trillion CNY, with the turnover rate declining, indicating reduced market activity[5] - The proportion of stocks rising increased to 54.77%, with the median weekly return for A-share stocks rising to 0.6%[5] Fund Flows - New issuance of equity funds decreased to 21.84 billion CNY, while foreign capital inflow accelerated, with a net inflow of 8.0 million USD as of November 5[6] - The net buying amount of financing decreased to 11.63 billion CNY, accounting for 10.8% of total trading volume[6] Sector Performance - Foreign capital primarily flowed into the electronics sector, with a net inflow of 63.2 million USD, while financing capital mainly flowed into the power equipment sector, with a net inflow of 68.3 billion CNY[7] - The healthcare equipment sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven market recovery, with significant growth in bidding volumes for new medical equipment[17][20] Economic Indicators - The average price of Brent crude oil was 68.17 USD per barrel in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.40%[44] - The construction sector showed signs of recovery, with new home transaction areas in major cities decreasing by 40.6% week-on-week, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[33] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends an overweight position in A/H shares and industrial commodities, suggesting an equity allocation of 45% and a commodity allocation of 10%[9][10]

Group 1 - The article presents an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1][8] - The framework aims to diversify macro risks through SAA, set long-term allocation benchmarks for portfolio stability, and use TAA to identify short-term risk-return characteristics for asset adjustments [1][8] - The recommendation for November includes an overweight position in Chinese A/H shares and industrial commodities, with equity allocation at 45%, bonds at 45%, and commodities at 10% [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for Chinese equities is optimistic, suggesting a 45% allocation with overweight positions in A-shares (8.5%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.5%), while maintaining standard allocations for US (15%), European (5%), and Japanese stocks (5%) [2] - The improvement in Sino-US relations and stable domestic financial conditions are seen as favorable for Chinese assets, with a strong demand for quality assets amid ongoing market reforms [2][12] - The bond allocation is suggested to be neutral at 45%, with standard positions in long-term and short-term government bonds for both China and the US [3] Group 3 - The commodity allocation is viewed as neutral to slightly optimistic, recommending a 10% allocation with standard positions in gold (5%) and industrial commodities (3.75%), while underweighting oil (1.25%) [3] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to experience price increases due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grid modernization, and electric vehicle demand [3][14] Group 4 - The macroeconomic analysis emphasizes the importance of tracking macroeconomic expectations and their impact on asset pricing, highlighting that deviations from expectations can lead to significant asset price fluctuations [10][15] - The article discusses the significance of macroeconomic cycles in guiding long-term investment strategies, with a focus on the cyclical nature of economic indicators [19][15]