Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of renewed recession concerns in the US and tariff disruptions on global risk assets, leading to a decline in industrial metals and equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries have risen [3][4] - The article discusses the "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response for asset allocation in a fragile era, emphasizing the need for a diversified approach that includes Chinese government bonds, US short-term Treasuries, and high-dividend stocks in China, among others [4][11] - It notes that the Chinese risk assets have outperformed those in the US, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its upward trend supported by liquidity easing [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines key economic data and events scheduled from August 10 to August 24, including important indicators such as the US CPI and Eurozone GDP [12][15] - It provides a detailed tracking of global asset dynamics, indicating a widening SOFR-OIS spread and a decline in the US financial conditions index, reflecting a tightening of overall financial conditions in the US [18][20] - The article mentions that the US consumer confidence index has shown fluctuations, which typically correlates with increased volatility in US equities [28][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated performance of global major asset classes, with Chinese equity assets leading the rise and industrial metals experiencing a broad increase due to domestic policies and infrastructure plans [3][4] - The "global barbell strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of Chinese interest rate bonds, US short-term treasuries, and high-quality growth stocks [4][8] - Recent data indicates a widening SOFR-OIS spread, reflecting tightening liquidity in the US repo market, and a decline in the US financial conditions index, suggesting a deterioration in overall financial conditions [4][14] Group 2 - The tactical approach suggests that the current market resembles a micro-version of the 2014-2015 A-share market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies, with domestic capital driving the market [8][29] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators, such as China's industrial enterprise profits and the US ADP employment change, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [11][12] - The focus on high-quality growth stocks aligns with the trend of residents reallocating savings into the stock market, favoring thematic investments that meet high-quality development directions [4][8]

Global Macro Trends - Recent performance of global asset classes has shown divergence, with a significant rebound in the US dollar index and a general decline in commodities, while emerging markets have outperformed developed markets [3][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving global asset allocation landscape, emphasizing the need for long-term investors to understand the reshaping of world order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets [4][11]. - The strategy is influenced by three underlying logics: increasing de-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry. The focus remains on an all-weather strategy that adjusts for asymmetrical pricing risks [4][11]. - A statistical analysis of historical asset volatility during US recession periods has been conducted, ranking assets by their volatility amplification factors. The order is as follows: Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, Hang Seng Tech, US Treasuries, Gold, China Bonds, Bitcoin, Convertible Bonds, and A-share dividends [4][11]. - Adjustments to asset allocation weights have been made based on the revised volatility factors, increasing the weight of Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while decreasing the weight of Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [4][11]. Economic Indicators and Data - The US financial conditions index has shown improvement, indicating a relaxation in overall financial conditions [5][17]. - The Citigroup US Economic Surprise Index has recorded positive values, suggesting that economic data has been exceeding market expectations [5][19]. - There is an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the US, which has negatively impacted consumer confidence [5][28]. - Historical trends indicate that deteriorating consumer confidence in the US often leads to increased volatility in the stock market [5][31]. Upcoming Economic Events - A calendar of significant upcoming economic data releases and events has been outlined, including consumer confidence indices, interest rate decisions, and GDP reports from various regions [14].

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Global major asset classes experienced a broad rally from June 16 to June 24, with risk assets represented by equities showing significant recovery [4][12] - The ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in global risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold retreated [4][13] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, while paying attention to asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios [5][17] - The new paradigm is reinforced by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, with the strategic focus remaining on the all-weather adjustment of the "global barbell strategy" [5][18] - A statistical analysis of historical U.S. recession trading intervals revealed the volatility amplification factors for various assets, with the ranking being: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese Bonds > Bitcoin > National Bond Convertible Bonds > A-share Dividends [5][18] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on revised volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [5][18] Focus Data: Global Economic Data and Event Calendar - The economic data calendar from June 30 to July 13 includes significant indicators such as China's official manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 49.5, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 48.5 [20] - Other important data points include the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone CPI for June, with the latter expected to be 1.9% [20]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ： （4.7-4.16），全球大类资产表现分化，黄金>发达>债券>新兴。（4.2- 4.4），对等关税落地当周，避险&风险资产普跌。（4.7-4.16），对等关税对于全球资产冲击的程度有所缓和， 但全球大类资产主线仍然围绕"避险交易"：避险资产的代表黄金已经率先企稳并大幅领涨；风险资产中，发达国 家和工业金属有所回补，而新兴市场表现仍偏弱。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 我们在 25.4.9 《谋定而后动，做多的三个时机》 中提示：事件冲击的大波动中，全力做多的时机通常有三个：（1）胜 率提升—本轮要看到贸易摩擦缓和（跟踪观察）；（2）估值极便宜（中国资产不贵）；（3）流动性问题导致筹 码出清（可以是阶段性）带来机会。短期维持全球资产宜保持避险策略（中债瑞郎黄金）的判断，仍然建议以全 天候策略框架构建资产组合。中长期而言，关税强化了新范式的三大底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、 AI产 ...