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非农“暴雷”一周后,美股和企业债给出回应:大涨!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-09 02:00
Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market has shifted towards risk-on, with high-risk assets rebounding significantly despite previous economic concerns highlighted by a poor employment report [1][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index recorded its largest weekly gain in over a month, while high-yield corporate bond spreads narrowed for five consecutive days, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [1][7] - Strong corporate earnings and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence are driving this risk-on sentiment, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 10% growth in earnings for the second quarter, significantly higher than prior forecasts [8] Group 2 - Despite the stock market's rally, the U.S. Treasury market remains cautious, with the 10-year Treasury yield still below levels seen before the employment report, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [3][4] - The divergence between the optimistic stock and corporate bond markets and the cautious Treasury market is becoming a focal point of interest on Wall Street [3][10] - Analysts suggest that the high valuations in the stock market, with a price-to-earnings ratio close to 23, indicate elevated risk levels, reminiscent of the tech bubble era [8][6] Group 3 - The current economic indicators, such as rising unemployment claims and increased consumer inflation expectations, contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [9][10] - There is a belief among some analysts that the bond market's signals should be trusted over the seemingly optimistic high-yield corporate bond indicators, especially in the later stages of the economic expansion cycle [10]