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食品饮料周报:贵州茅台发布分红、回购方案,积极提振信心-20251114
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-11-14 09:43
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of -0.56% from November 3 to November 7, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.08%) and the CSI 300 Index (+0.82%). The liquor segment, particularly the white liquor category, saw a decrease of -0.84%, indicating a weaker performance during this period [12][18]. - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend plan for 2025 and a new share repurchase plan, which includes a commitment to a 30 billion yuan dividend and a 15-30 billion yuan buyback. This reflects the company's strong recognition of its own value and has positively impacted its stock price [12][18]. - The white liquor industry is currently in a sales off-season, with expectations that companies will focus on inventory reduction in Q4 2025. The Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM stands at 19.52X, which is considered relatively low compared to the past decade, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From November 3 to November 7, the food and beverage sector's performance was -0.56%, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: white liquor (-0.84%), beer (-0.66%), soft drinks (-1.20%), and dairy products (-0.38%). In contrast, pre-processed foods (+2.26%) and baked goods (+1.69%) showed positive growth [18]. White Liquor Insights - The white liquor segment's performance was notably weaker than the overall food and beverage sector. Guizhou Moutai's announcements regarding dividends and share repurchases are seen as confidence-boosting measures. The current PE-TTM for the white liquor index is at a historically low level, indicating potential for recovery as consumer spending gradually improves [12][18]. Beer and General Consumer Goods - The beer sector also faced a decline of -0.66%, but there is optimism for recovery driven by upcoming consumption policies. The general consumer goods segment, particularly pre-processed and baked goods, is expected to benefit from valuation shifts and marginal changes as the restaurant sector slowly recovers [2][13]. Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, three main investment lines are recommended: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiu Gui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang), value recovery stocks (e.g., Ying Jia Gong Jiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fen Jiu, Guizhou Moutai) [3][17]. - In the beer segment, focus on stocks with sustained growth potential and those that may benefit from cost advantages is advised [3][17].