二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 04 日 白糖：重视低基差机会 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 1. 全球食糖市场基本面边际转强 报告导读： 重视低基差机会。虽然全球食糖市场基本面边际转强，但是仍不改供应过剩格局。国内市场产量增 加，供应缺口收窄，结构性矛盾仍存。配额外进口成本低于国内生产成本，拉低远期国内期现货价格估 值。甜菜糖产量增加，仓单中甜菜糖和云南糖占比高。2026 年 2 月下旬以来，宏观驱动的商品涨价情绪 蔓延，郑糖价格持续上涨，基差明显走低至近几个榨季同期低位，低基差有利于进一步增加注册仓单。9 月合约通常会采用交割定价，反映甜菜糖仓单接货成本，过去几个榨季合约摘牌前均呈现高基差状态。我 们认为 SR2609 合约同样存在甜菜糖仓单交割定价的可能性，宏观情绪是造成现阶段的低基差的重要因 素，随着时间的推移，基本面交易回归，高基差交割概率较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 全球食糖市场基本面边际转强。ISO 在 2026 年 02 月最新的报告中，下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The key factors for sugar are the total import volume and structure [1] - The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.78 cents/pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5353 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 13 [1] - The 15 spread is 51 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the 59 spread is - 19 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 297 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 13 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] - The sugar export quota of India in the 25/26 sugar - making season is 1.5 million tons [1] - Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and its exports in October were 4.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% [1] - China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October (+210,000 tons) and 120,000 tons of syrup and premixed powder (-110,000 tons) [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons (previous value: 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous value: 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9% (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points) [2] - As of the end of October, the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar - making season in China were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [2] - The Guangxi Sugar Association predicts that the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be about 6.7 million tons, with a decline in sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase price; the Yunnan Sugar Association predicts that the production in Yunnan will be about 2.6 million tons [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 163,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previous value: a shortage of 23,000 tons), and a global sugar supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season [3] - As of November 1, the cumulative crushing volume of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 1.97 percentage points year - on - year, the cumulative sugar production was 38.09 million tons (+610,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.97%, a year - on - year increase of 3.38 percentage points [3] - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.35 million tons (previous value: 34.9 million tons), 3.4 million tons will be used for ethanol production, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons [3] - The cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3]