Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The key factors for sugar are the total import volume and structure [1] - The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.78 cents/pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5353 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 13 [1] - The 15 spread is 51 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the 59 spread is - 19 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 297 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 13 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] - The sugar export quota of India in the 25/26 sugar - making season is 1.5 million tons [1] - Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and its exports in October were 4.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% [1] - China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October (+210,000 tons) and 120,000 tons of syrup and premixed powder (-110,000 tons) [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons (previous value: 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous value: 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9% (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points) [2] - As of the end of October, the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar - making season in China were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [2] - The Guangxi Sugar Association predicts that the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be about 6.7 million tons, with a decline in sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase price; the Yunnan Sugar Association predicts that the production in Yunnan will be about 2.6 million tons [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 163,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previous value: a shortage of 23,000 tons), and a global sugar supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season [3] - As of November 1, the cumulative crushing volume of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 1.97 percentage points year - on - year, the cumulative sugar production was 38.09 million tons (+610,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.97%, a year - on - year increase of 3.38 percentage points [3] - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.35 million tons (previous value: 34.9 million tons), 3.4 million tons will be used for ethanol production, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons [3] - The cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) 11 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 5494 | | 391035 | -9001 12236 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) -70 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | 7625 | | -61969 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 586 | 0 | | | | | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ -25 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 3990 | | 4049 | -25 | | 吨) | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 现货市场 | -33 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5052 | | 5129 | -33 | | /吨) | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) 0 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) | 5720 | | 5750 | 0 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest fundamental data, macro and industry news of the sugar market, and provides production, consumption and import forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar - crushing seasons. The trend strength of sugar is rated as neutral. 3) Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - The price of raw sugar is 16.3 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.06; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5661 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 11 [1]. - The 91 spread is 55 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 9; the 15 spread is 42 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4; the mainstream spot basis is 329 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 11 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and the monsoon precipitation in India has weakened stage - by - stage. The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil accelerated in the first half of July. Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons compared with the previous period [1]. **Domestic Market** - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to be 1.116 billion tons, consumption to be 1.58 billion tons, and imports to be 500 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar - extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. **International Market** - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 488 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons, a decrease of 159 million tons, and the cumulative MIX51.02% increased by 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, compared with 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. **Trend Strength** The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].