Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The price of sugar is expected to fluctuate upwards [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 15.87 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.32. The mainstream spot price is 5450 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change. The futures main contract price is 5463 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 34. The 59 spread is - 22 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10. The 91 spread is - 142 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 2. The mainstream spot basis is - 13 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 34 [1] Macro and Industry News - As of March 15, 2026, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season in India increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported a cumulative 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February 2026, an increase of 440,000 tons. As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons, and the sugar production rate was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in the production areas [1] Domestic and International Market Situation - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of February 2026, China had imported a cumulative 2.28 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 sugar - making season, an increase of 740,000 tons. ISO expects a global sugar supply surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previously a surplus of 163,000 tons), and a global sugar supply shortage of 346,000 tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season. As of February 1, 2026, the cumulative crushing volume of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons, and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of March 15, 2026, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 26.18 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons. As of March 11, 2026, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 9.79 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 1, indicating a relatively weak upward trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The key factors for sugar are the total import volume and structure [1] - The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.78 cents/pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5353 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 13 [1] - The 15 spread is 51 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the 59 spread is - 19 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 297 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 13 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] - The sugar export quota of India in the 25/26 sugar - making season is 1.5 million tons [1] - Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and its exports in October were 4.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% [1] - China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October (+210,000 tons) and 120,000 tons of syrup and premixed powder (-110,000 tons) [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons (previous value: 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous value: 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9% (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points) [2] - As of the end of October, the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar - making season in China were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [2] - The Guangxi Sugar Association predicts that the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be about 6.7 million tons, with a decline in sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase price; the Yunnan Sugar Association predicts that the production in Yunnan will be about 2.6 million tons [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 163,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previous value: a shortage of 23,000 tons), and a global sugar supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season [3] - As of November 1, the cumulative crushing volume of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 1.97 percentage points year - on - year, the cumulative sugar production was 38.09 million tons (+610,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.97%, a year - on - year increase of 3.38 percentage points [3] - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.35 million tons (previous value: 34.9 million tons), 3.4 million tons will be used for ethanol production, and the net sugar production will be 30.95 million tons [3] - The cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar surplus forecast for the new season has been mostly raised, with the recovery of sugar production in Thailand and India having a key impact on the supply side. India is expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with an initial market expectation of 200 million tons [2]. - In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total production expected to be around 140 million tons. Short - term supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of about 280,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4%. Most of Thailand's syrup and pre - mixed sugar powder production enterprises still within the validity period are in a "suspended import" state, which is expected to limit syrup imports again and is beneficial to the domestic market. Short - term sugar prices have support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,494 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 391,035 hands, a decrease of 9,001 hands. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,625, a decrease of 70. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 61,969 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 586, unchanged [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) were 5,052 yuan/ton and 5,129 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 12.86 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 999.98 million tons, a decrease of 44.98 million tons. The national sugar sales rate was 89.99%. The monthly import volume of sugar was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports in the month were 3.2458 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,512 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was not provided. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.5917 billion tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.42%, a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 6.43%, a decrease of 1.42%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.05%, an increase of 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.28%, an increase of 0.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 3.2014 billion tons of sugar in the first four weeks of October, with a daily average export volume of 178,500 tons, a 5% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 169,500 tons in the whole of October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 3.7294 billion tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.09 cents, or 0.60%, to settle at 14.37 cents per pound, hitting the lowest level in nearly five years due to supply growth and demand concerns [2].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest fundamental data, macro and industry news of the sugar market, and provides production, consumption and import forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar - crushing seasons. The trend strength of sugar is rated as neutral. 3) Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - The price of raw sugar is 16.3 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.06; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5661 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 11 [1]. - The 91 spread is 55 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 9; the 15 spread is 42 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4; the mainstream spot basis is 329 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 11 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and the monsoon precipitation in India has weakened stage - by - stage. The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil accelerated in the first half of July. Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons compared with the previous period [1]. **Domestic Market** - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to be 1.116 billion tons, consumption to be 1.58 billion tons, and imports to be 500 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar - extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. **International Market** - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 488 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons, a decrease of 159 million tons, and the cumulative MIX51.02% increased by 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, compared with 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. **Trend Strength** The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].