编者按：7月21日，小摩发布研究报告指出，对于 2025 年下半年，预计在恒生指数上半年取得 18% 的 美元回报率且相对亚太除日本指数跑赢约 5% 之后，短期内会出现盘整，原因包括不确定的关税风险、 美联储不太可能降息的前景、不及预期的刺激政策以及 8 月疲软的季节性因素。这种潜在的疲软将是一 个买入机会，因为强劲的股票市场融资、南向资金流入以及稳定币领域的创新可能会推动 EPS 修正。 指数目标：将 2025 年底恒生指数的基准 / 乐观 / 悲观目标从之前的 11,600/12,400/10,300 港元上调至 13,000/14,000/11,000 港元，对应回报率分别为 2%/10%/-14%。 中小盘股首选：美高梅中国和中国建筑国际。 | RIC Code | Security Name | CN Name | GICS Sector | Analyst | JPM rating | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Large caps | | | | | | | 1299.HK | AIA Group Ltd | 友邦保险 | Financial ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government has approved the financial arrangements for the first part of the Northern Link project, which aims to enhance transportation efficiency and connectivity in the region, with a target completion date of 2034 or earlier [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Northern Link main line will connect the existing Tuen Ma Line and East Rail Line, with new stations planned along the route [1]. - The project includes a branch line that will connect to the newly established Huanggang Port station in Shenzhen [1]. Group 2: Financial Aspects - The budget for the first part of the Northern Link project is approximately HKD 31.4 billion, based on prices from July 2025 [2]. - The project aims to significantly reduce travel time from 60-80 minutes to about 12 minutes between Kam Sheung Road and Kwu Tung [2]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The Hong Kong government emphasizes the strategic value of the Northern Link project, aiming to accelerate its development through innovative planning and the adoption of mainland construction standards [1]. - The project is expected to promote the development of the northern metropolitan area of Hong Kong [2].