Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is expected to remain in the range of 2% to 3% in the first half of the year, with mortgage borrowers needing to pay a capped interest rate of 3.25% in the short term [1] Group 1: Interest Rates and Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, while HSBC has kept its prime rate unchanged at 5% [1] - The total surplus in the Hong Kong banking system is approximately HKD 53.8 billion, limiting the downward potential for HIBOR [1] - Unless there is a significant influx of funds that drives HIBOR below 1.95%, actual mortgage rates and monthly payments are unlikely to decrease further [1] Group 2: Mortgage Market Outlook - Some banks are actively seeking to increase their mortgage business in the first half of the year by raising rebates and incentives to attract quality customers [1] - The mortgage market is expected to stabilize and trend upwards by 2026 as the property market improves [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has risen to 2% as of October 18, marking the first increase since early May [1] - The banking system's surplus has decreased from a peak of HKD 177 billion to HKD 53 billion, compared to HKD 44 billion before the liquidity influx [1] - The expectation is that Hong Kong developers' stock prices will experience weakness as HIBOR returns to forecast levels and floating-rate mortgages are repriced to a maximum of 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The overall view on the Hong Kong residential property market remains that it will slowly rebound, with an expectation of flat prices this year and a rebound of 5% and 6% over the next two years [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for Cheung Kong Holdings (01113) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), while holding a "Sell" rating for Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1]

Group 1 - The influx of hot money into Hong Kong has led to a rise in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate to 7.75, but it has recently dropped to a low of 7.84, marking the weakest level since September 2023 [1][2] - Factors such as increased IPO activity, southbound capital inflows, low deposit rates in mainland China, and capital returning from the US are driving liquidity into Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may intervene further in the market due to the negative interest rate differential between the US dollar and the HKD [2] Group 2 - The HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to rise in the coming months due to dividend distributions, quarter-end funding demands, and the absorption of liquidity from bond and stock issuances [1][2] - The current loan-to-deposit ratio in Hong Kong is 20 percentage points lower than in 2019, indicating low credit demand despite a liquidity-rich environment [2] - The HKMA's currency peg system has remained intact since 1983, despite historical foreign exchange crises [2]