近两次的反转行情都呈现出"急涨急跌"的态势。为稳定港元汇率，香港金管局于8月13日和14日分别回笼港币70.65亿元和33.76亿元。致使香港银行体系总结 余从6月的近1750亿港元的高位回落。跌至537亿港元，接近回落到5月初香港金管局未干预前的446亿港元的水平。伴随港元汇率的大幅拉升，港元资金供应 收紧。多期限HIBOR大幅上涨。隔夜港元拆借利率已从先前的不足0.2%大幅上升至近3%。港元各期限HIBOR连续第三天大涨。 流动性收紧引发质变 下半年以来，港元汇率屡屡触及弱方兑换保证。香港金管局频频出手稳定港元汇率。港元近期的急速拉升，与套息交易多头反转密不可分。当港元结余下降 到一定程度之后，流动性不再像之前那么充裕。港元资金成本脱离零利率，港元与美元利差收窄。借港元、换美元的套息交易平仓导致港元汇率升值。以银 行总结余为代表的港元流动性和港元资金利率呈现非线性关系。 从历史数据来看，当总结余下降至500亿港元附近时，HIBOR才会出现明显变化。随着总结余回落至目前的水平，流动性的边际扰动成为影响港元资金利率 的主导因素。直到近期香港金管局的干预行为，才开始带动港元资金利率大幅收紧。南向资金带来了旺盛的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank anticipates that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority may intervene intermittently in the second half of the year due to the persistent weakness of the Hong Kong dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Currency Exchange - The Hong Kong dollar is expected to maintain an exchange rate around 7.85 against the US dollar over the next 3 to 6 months, which is the weak side of the trading band [1] Monetary Policy - The report indicates that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority may take actions to withdraw liquidity and reduce the surplus in the banking system, a process that typically lasts for 3 to 6 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) indicates that the widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the United States has triggered carry trades, causing the Hong Kong dollar to approach the weak end of its peg in recent weeks [1] Group 1 - The expansion of the interest rate differential has led to increased carry trading activities [1] - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate may weaken further if carry trades continue, potentially triggering the weak side of the currency peg [1]

Group 1 - The influx of hot money into Hong Kong has led to a rise in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate to 7.75, but it has recently dropped to a low of 7.84, marking the weakest level since September 2023 [1][2] - Factors such as increased IPO activity, southbound capital inflows, low deposit rates in mainland China, and capital returning from the US are driving liquidity into Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may intervene further in the market due to the negative interest rate differential between the US dollar and the HKD [2] Group 2 - The HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) is expected to rise in the coming months due to dividend distributions, quarter-end funding demands, and the absorption of liquidity from bond and stock issuances [1][2] - The current loan-to-deposit ratio in Hong Kong is 20 percentage points lower than in 2019, indicating low credit demand despite a liquidity-rich environment [2] - The HKMA's currency peg system has remained intact since 1983, despite historical foreign exchange crises [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market three times from May 2 to May 6, injecting over 116 billion HKD, marking the most intensive intervention since 2020 [1][2] - The strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar is driven by three main factors: the influx of funds from mainland enterprises' IPOs, record inflows of southbound funds, and an upcoming peak in dividend payouts from listed companies [1][5] - The Hang Seng Index has rebounded significantly, rising over 20% from its low of 19,260.21 points on April 9 to a high of 23,197.57 points [2][4] Group 2 - The HKMA's interventions included absorbing approximately 15 billion USD in sell orders, with total injections reaching 116.6 billion HKD over four days [2][4] - The demand for the Hong Kong dollar has surged due to increased stock investment activity, particularly from large IPOs, which has created significant capital requirements [5][6] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 590 billion HKD this year, which is about three-quarters of last year's total inflow [6][7] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the net inflow of southbound funds for the year could range between 800 billion HKD and 1 trillion HKD, indicating strong ongoing demand for the Hong Kong dollar [7][8] - The upcoming dividend payout peak is expected to further increase the demand for the Hong Kong dollar, as companies prepare for distributions in June [8][9] - The current market conditions suggest that the strong Hong Kong dollar may attract more foreign investment, potentially benefiting the stock market [9][10]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong dollar has reached the strong end of its trading range for the second consecutive day, hitting the upper limit of 7.75 during trading [1] - After peaking at 7.75, the Hong Kong dollar erased some gains and is currently stable around 7.7507 [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate within a trading range of 7.75 to 7.85 [1]