Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the tone of the Two Sessions is positive, laying a foundation for the good development of the domestic economy. The changing situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical products, which may affect the cost and sentiment of other commodities, as well as economic factors such as interest rates. Due to cost increases and the relatively low valuation of the black industry, it may have an impact on the bottom - up of black prices, but the overall fundamentals of the black industry are average, and the actual impact is not significant [141] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Report Thinking Explanation - **Valuation**: It addresses the static issue of whether a commodity is expensive or not. By comparing with history, production costs, spot prices, and import/regional price differences, an objective judgment can be made. When the situation is clear, there are usually good investment opportunities and strategies [8] - **Driver**: It is about how future valuations will change. The biggest driver comes from changes in the industrial pattern and capacity. Inventory changes are worthy of attention as they reflect recent changes in demand, production, and imports/exports [8] - **Other**: The formation of the final view and the expression of strategies are the result of multiple factors. Valuation and driver provide a basis for analysis, but additional thinking may be needed to achieve better results. The weekly report explores investment opportunities in the black industry from these three aspects and uses key data for verification [9] 02 Main Logic Summary of Each Variety Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Bullish Logic**: The Two Sessions set a positive tone. Steel mill profits are average, and there may be pressure to reduce supply due to the 2026 capacity replacement policy. The upcoming demand season and better - than - expected exports, along with rising energy prices and a strong overall commodity atmosphere [13] - **Bearish Logic**: The era of real estate and infrastructure is over, and the export license system is implemented. Profits have improved, raw materials are in oversupply, inventory is large, and cost increases are limited [14] - **Viewpoint**: The price will continue to fluctuate within a range in the later period [15] - **Strategy**: Buy low and sell high [16] Ore - **Bullish Logic**: The ore basis still has an advantage, steel mill profits have improved. The comprehensive cost of newly -投产 ore is high, the rhythm is highly uncertain, and many are in non - traditional regions. Indian steel production is rising, Iranian ore exports are blocked, the progress of Simandou may be weaker than expected, and the price of crude oil has risen, increasing freight costs [57] - **Bearish Logic**: Ore production capacity is expected to increase, Simandou will enter the market. The cash cost of new production capacity is low, future steel demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and ore inventory is high [57] - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation of ore has marginally improved due to factors such as Iran, but the overall pattern remains unchanged [58] - **Strategy**: Wait for the price of far - month ore to rise before making a decision [59] Coking Coal and Coke - **Bullish Logic**: Domestic coal supply may be affected by future environmental protection factors. Rising crude oil prices have a price - comparison pulling effect on coal, and the demand for coal in the coal - chemical industry is expected to increase. The current valuation is not high, and sea - coal imports have stopped due to price issues [79] - **Bearish Logic**: Domestic coal is in the process of resuming production, and the probability of further tightening in the later period is low. Coal imports from Mongolia and Russia will remain high in 2026, and the previous high prices have attracted hedging positions [79] - **Viewpoint**: It is highly likely that coking coal and coke will fluctuate within a range [80] - **Strategy**: The coking coal spot - futures arbitrage has shrunk significantly. Choose the right time to shift positions to far - month contracts and operate in a rolling manner [81] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Bullish Logic**: The price is not high, and production profits are low. The variety is small, and volatility can be easily amplified. Manganese ore prices have risen significantly due to factors such as Australian weather and diesel. Silicon manganese production has decreased. There are rumors that South Africa will impose an export tax on manganese ore. Iron - water production is expected to rise, there is an expectation of an increase in differential electricity prices, and rising crude oil prices boost sentiment and raise cost expectations [104] - **Bearish Logic**: It is expected that demand will not grow significantly in 2026, production capacity is loose and new capacity is added. Silicon manganese inventory is high, and ferromanganese inventory is also not low. If the futures price continues to rise, the spot - futures price difference will be favorable [105] - **Viewpoint**: The rise in manganese ore prices has led to some performance of silicon manganese. Pay attention to the spot - futures price difference [106] 03 Strategy Tracking and Summary - **Summary**: The overall situation is affected by the positive tone of the Two Sessions and the rise in crude oil and chemical products. The black industry's fundamentals are average, and the real impact on prices is not significant [141] - **Strategy**: The spot - futures arbitrage of coking coal, glass, and soda ash has performed well. Choose the right time to shift positions to far - month contracts and operate in a rolling manner. Wait for the improvement of ore. Glass and soda ash remain in a bearish pattern, and short positions can be taken on rallies and operated in a rolling manner [142]