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通胀粘性担忧升温 交易员紧盯通胀数据判断9月降息前景
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-31 12:19
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates has shifted market expectations, with a significant reduction in the probability of a rate cut in September from 80% to 40% [1] - The upcoming PCE price index data is crucial for assessing persistent inflation pressures, with economists predicting a rise in core PCE month-on-month from 0.2% to 0.3% [1] - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with the two-year yield rising by 7 basis points on Wednesday and then retreating by 1 basis point to 3.93% on Thursday [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank's U.S. interest rate strategy head indicated that the market should focus on the delayed possibility of rate cuts, with the first expected cut not occurring until December [2] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that current labor market conditions and inflation levels do not warrant a rate cut [2] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April, indicating persistent inflation concerns in the market [2] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to inflation forecasts, as companies begin to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [3] - Powell suggested that the Fed views tariff-induced price increases as potentially temporary, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3] - The demand for inflation-protected securities (TIPS) is rising among investors, reflecting a growing concern over inflation risks in the current economic environment [3]
通胀粘性担忧升温,交易员紧盯通胀数据以判断9月降息前景
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-31 11:53
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential delay in interest rate cuts, shifting market focus to upcoming inflation data [1] - Following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, market sentiment reversed, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 80% to 40% [1] - Economists expect the core PCE monthly rate to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [1] Group 2 - Barclays Bank anticipated a hawkish outcome from the Fed meeting, with expectations for the first rate cut pushed to December [5] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that current economic conditions do not warrant a rate cut [5] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen by approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April [5] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to inflation forecasts, as companies begin to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [6] - Powell indicated that the Fed views tariff-induced price increases as potentially temporary, which may influence their decision-making [6] - Investors are increasingly seeking to hedge against inflation risks, as evidenced by the increased allocation to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [6]