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“高息现金牛”策略:分红能力与意愿的双重验证
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-12-21 10:13
Group 1: Allocation Demand in Low-Interest Rate Environment - The demand for dividend-related assets is expected to continue increasing, driven by the need for stable cash returns in a low-interest rate and asset scarcity environment [4][9]. - As of December 17, 2025, the tracking scale of dividend index ETFs approached 200 billion, while cash flow-related products reached 24.8 billion since their issuance in February of the same year [9]. Group 2: Comparison of Dividend and Free Cash Flow Indices - The report outlines the selection rules for the CSI Dividend Index and the National Index Free Cash Flow, emphasizing liquidity and consistent dividend payments over the past three years [12]. - The performance comparison shows that both dividend and cash flow indices outperformed the overall market during periods of market downturns, indicating their defensive characteristics [15]. Group 3: Relationship Between Dividend Capability and Willingness - There is a significant positive correlation between dividend yield and free cash flow, indicating that companies with high cash flow are more willing to distribute dividends [51]. - The analysis shows that companies with a history of consistent dividends and strong cash flow tend to have more stable and superior long-term stock price performance [59]. Group 4: "High-Yield Cash Cow" Strategy Construction - The "High-Yield Cash Cow" strategy involves selecting stocks based on high free cash flow rates and consistent dividend payments, excluding financial and real estate sectors [59]. - The strategy has shown strong performance, with the "Cash Cow 50 High Yield 30" combination achieving an annualized return of 25.9% since 2014, outperforming the CSI Dividend Index by 13.5% [62].