Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market rebounded from a low level, with the Wind All A rising 2.12% and a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan. Multiple sectors except finance rose. Recent economic control policies provide fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long run. However, due to the adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading, the market has entered a high-level volatile mode, and short-term fluctuations have increased [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 29.65 billion yuan. In the short term, with the continuous introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market rebounded, with the CSI 1000 rising 2.93%, the CSI 500 rising 3.11%, the SSE 50 rising 1.05%, and the SSE 300 rising 1.18%. Policy support includes the possible establishment of a national-level merger fund, comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition, and the promotion of high-tech projects. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP, which is beneficial for specific sectors. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading has increased market volatility [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On February 3, 2026, the 30-year main contract fell 0.10%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.03%. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and interest rates will fluctuate within a range [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 3, 2026, compared with February 2, 2026, IH rose 0.96%, IF rose 1.65%, IC rose 4.79%, and IM rose 3.95% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 1.05%, the SSE 300 rose 1.18%, the CSI 500 rose 3.11%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.93% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.01%, and TL fell 0.09% [3] 3. Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market recovered after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.19%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.86%. Over 4,800 stocks rose, and the trading volume was 2.56 trillion yuan [4] - **Industry Sectors**: Sectors such as space photovoltaics, CPO, commercial aerospace, and engineering machinery led the gains, while sectors such as banking, insurance, and brewing fell [4] - **Popular Concepts**: The space photovoltaic concept exploded, with many stocks hitting the daily limit. CPO and other computing hardware stocks continued to rise, and commercial aerospace concept stocks strengthened [4] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][8][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the historical price trends, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [13][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [22][26][27]

日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 报告类型 股指日评 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 宏观金融团队 1 月 20 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘后快速下滑，随后震荡反弹，跌幅有所 收窄，收跌 0.58%，全市超 3000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.33%、0.17%、0.48%、1.00%。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、 IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.42%、0.07%、0.21%、0.80%（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | ...

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关 情况。国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈表示，展望2026年，我国经济结构将持续向优，发展动 能持续向新，整体发展态势持续向好。从点上看，新技术、新产品、新场景将蔚然成势，目前国家发改 委正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程 ...