1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Corn: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - term, focusing on the pressure at previous high points; follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost in the long - term, with emphasis on policy guidance [4][6][7] - Pig: In the short - term, supply and demand growth drive narrow price fluctuations; in the medium - term, supply pressure eases from April; in the long - term, supply pressure weakens after September. Consider low - buying opportunities for contracts after 2609 if sow inventory keeps falling [9][11][12] - Eggs: In the short - term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. In February, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may push prices down. In the medium - term, egg supply pressure remains. In the long - term, the rising scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases. Look for short - selling opportunities for near - term contracts [14][15][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 9th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were slightly stronger. Northeast enterprises' mainstream purchase price was 2163 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; North China's average purchase price was 2253 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [4] - North and south port prices rose slightly on the 9th. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2265 - 2275 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Shekou Port's transaction price was 2410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 9th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 1900 to 36555 hands [4] - In the 2nd week of 2026, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 56%, higher than last year's 49% and the three - year average of 48%; in North China, it was 47%, compared with last year's 50% and the three - year average of 46% [4] - As of January 9th, the total corn inventory at four northern ports was about 1.56 million tons, and the inventory at Guangdong Port was 800,000 tons [4] - In the 2nd week of 2026, CGS's corn bidding purchase plan was 57,400 tons, with 73,600 tons actually transacted (77% success rate); the bidding sales plan was 304,900 tons, with 264,800 tons actually transacted (87% success rate); the two - way purchase and sales plan was 99,500 tons, with 30,600 tons actually transacted (31% success rate) [5] Market Logic - Medium - term: The corn market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. New - grain selling is faster year - on - year, and downstream restocking provides support. However, imported corn auctions and rumors may limit price increases. Maintain a wide - range trading approach [6] - Long - term: Follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [6] Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading approach in the medium - term. For the 2603 contract, focus on the pressure at 2270 - 2280; for the 2605 contract, focus on 2280, and if it breaks through, the pressure moves up to 2300 [7] Pig Important Information - On the 9th, the national average pig price was 12.61 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg [9] - The official data shows that the number of fertile sows in October 2025 was 39.9 million, dropping below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [9] - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July). In October and November 2025, it decreased by 1% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a supply pressure relief from April [9] - As of January 8th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.1 kg, down 0.29 kg from the previous week [9] - On January 9th, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [9] - As of January 9th, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 918 hands [10] Market Logic - Short - term: Supply and demand growth lead to price fluctuations with limited upside and downside. After mid - month, the return of the southern population may put pressure on southern prices, narrowing the north - south price difference [11] - Medium - term: Supply is expected to increase until March, but pressure will ease from April. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [11] - Long - term: Supply pressure exists until September. If the sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities for contracts after 2609 [11] Trading Strategy - Maintain a range - trading approach. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 11900 - 12000, and the support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 12400 - 12500, and the support is at 12000 - 12100; for the 2607 contract, the pressure is at 13000, and the support is at 12700; for the 2609 contract, the pressure is at 14000, and the support is at 13500 - 13700 [12] Eggs Important Information - On the 9th, the national egg price was stable with slight increases in some areas. The average price in main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; in main sales areas, it was 3.56 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - On the 9th, the overall inventory was stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.04 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days [14] - On the 9th, the average price of Hy - Line brown old hens in the mainstream market was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged. As of January 8th, the weekly culling age was 484 days, unchanged [14] - In December, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion. The theoretical estimated number in January is 1.334 billion [14] - As of January 9th, the number of egg futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7 hands [14] Market Logic - Short - term: After continuous price increases, the supply and demand are balanced, and prices are stable. The current average price is between feed and breeding costs. In February, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may push prices down [15] - Medium - term: The decline in culling age is insufficient, and chick replenishment is increasing. The egg supply pressure remains, and the spot price is expected to be low [15] - Long - term: The increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases. Wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [15] Trading Strategy - Given the pessimistic expectation for February's spot price, look for short - selling opportunities for near - term contracts after a price increase. Also, consider the reverse spread opportunity for the 2603/2604 contracts. For the 2603 contract, the first pressure is at 3030 - 3050, the second at 3060 - 3080. A break below 3000 may lead to further price drops. Don't be overly optimistic about the egg price in the second half of the year before over - culling occurs. Focus on the culling situation in the first quarter [16] Regional Grain - Selling Progress Northeast Region - In the 2nd week of 2026, the overall grain - selling progress in the Northeast was 56%, with 66% in Heilongjiang, 46% in Jilin, 62% in Liaoning, and 51% in Inner Mongolia [23] North China Region - In the 2nd week of 2026, the overall grain - selling progress in North China was 47%, with 41% in Hebei, 49% in Henan, and 51% in Shandong [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to shorting opportunities for egg futures. It recommends focusing on the shorting opportunities of the 2507 contract after it is under pressure and the 2508 contract. It also mentions the possibility of long - position opportunities for far - month contracts after the release of spot supply pressure in June [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 下跌驱动分析 - Today, the main contract of egg futures broke through the support level and fell. As of the time of writing, the 2507 contract dropped to 2,889 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.56% [3] - In the spot market, the spot price has been weak recently, and it stopped falling yesterday. On the 26th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 2.64 yuan per catty, reaching the second - lowest point in the past five years except for 2020 [3] - In the short term, the start of low - price cold storage and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival lead to better consumption, causing the egg price to stop falling and rebound. Whether the rebound can continue after the festival depends on the inventory level. In the medium term, the number of newly - laid hens is increasing. Based on the data of replenished chicks and culled laying hens, the theoretical inventory of laying hens in the second quarter is still on the rise. Coupled with the expected seasonal decline in the plum - rain season, the supply pressure of the spot market will increase from June to July, and the time window of the greatest supply pressure has not yet arrived. So, the short - selling strategy for the futures market remains unchanged [3] 后市观点 - Previously, it was emphasized to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2507 contract after it was under pressure. Currently, pay attention to the resistance effect at 3,000. If the resistance is effective, the short - selling direction remains unchanged; otherwise, it is recommended to moderately close out the previous short positions. Last week, it was recommended to focus on the short - selling opportunities of the 2508 contract. If the resistance at 3,600 is effective, the short - selling direction remains unchanged. One can also wait for the long - position opportunities of far - month contracts after the release of spot supply pressure in June [4]