证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 维持区间思路 玉米关注上方压力 猪价窄幅波动 期货展开区间整理 供需相对平衡 关注近月高空机会 2026年01月10日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：玉米暂仍维持区间思路 关注前期高点压力效果 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示9日南北港口价格小幅上涨。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2265-2275元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2410 元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 3、大商所数据显示截至1月9日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增1900手，共计36555手。 4、中国粮油商务网数据显示2026年第2周东北地区售粮进度为56%，去年同期为49%，三年平均为48%；华北地区售粮进度为47%，去年同期为50%，三年 平均为46%。 5、库存方面，截至1月9日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约156万吨，北方港口到货粮源多为贸易企业自集为主，库存累库尚未形成。广东港口玉米库存 80万吨，内贸玉米日均出 ...

12月11日，昨日黄金走了一个探底回升局面，但波动比较预期的小很多，亚盘开盘震荡回落，在跌破 4200后基本都是在其下方震荡，直至凌晨最低是到了4181美元。不过后续快速拉升，日内最高是到了 4238美元。最终金价是收盘于4227美元，日线收于一根小阳线。 周四（12月11日）凌晨美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。这是年内第 三次降息，符合市场普遍预期。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，下一步行动"极不可能"是加息，加息不在 委员们的基线情境之中。但另一方面，声明中新增"在考虑任何进一步调整时，将仔细评估新出炉数 据"的措辞，这通常被视为即将进入政策观察期的信号。因此，本次决议被市场解读为"降息落地、节奏 谨慎"或"鸽派暂停"。 美联储最新的"点阵图"预测中值显示，决策者对2026年仅计划降息1次。但利率期货市场交易者则更 为"鸽派"，预期2026年可能会有两次降息。这种预期差意味着，任何指向经济放缓的数据都可能引发市 场对更宽松政策的押注，从而利好黄金。 从技术上来看，降息预期兑现后的高位震荡，上有阻力、下有支撑，趋势偏强但需警惕短期回调。上方 首先关注4240-4250一线阻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]

Market Overview - As of September 19, Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 240 contracts in corn futures to 30,658 contracts compared to the previous trading day [1] - The USDA crop report indicated that as of September 14, corn harvest completion was at 7%, up from 4% the previous week, but below market expectations of 9% [1] - The corn good-to-excellent rating stands at 67%, slightly down from 68% the previous week, but higher than last year's 65%, marking the highest level for this time of year since 2018 [1] - Forecasts suggest that 100% of major corn-producing states will experience above-normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days, with 61% expecting below-normal precipitation [1] Institutional Insights - Short-term outlook indicates signs of stabilization in the spot market during the transition period, with no recent announcements for imported corn auctions [2] - The new season corn planting cost support range is identified between 2,050-2,150 RMB/ton, while the upper pressure is monitored against the wheat-corn price spread [2] - Mid-term trading strategies will focus on new season corn dynamics, including opening prices, farmer selling sentiment, and downstream storage efforts, maintaining a wide range trading approach [2] - Long-term pricing logic remains centered on import substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy direction [2] Regional Market Conditions - Northeast new season corn is being marketed smoothly with good quality, while old crop inventories are low and new season prices are stable [3] - In North China, new corn prices continue to decline, but the rate of decline is slowing, while old corn supply remains tight and prices are firm [3] - The market in consumption areas shows stability, with feed manufacturers' inventories at low levels, providing some support for prices due to minimal demand for replenishment [3] - Traders currently show weak intentions to hold inventory, with expectations of price declines during the concentrated marketing period from mid-October to November [3] - On the futures side, the main contracts are trading at a significant discount to spot prices, with seasonal bearish expectations fully priced in, indicating strong support [3]

01 螺纹：短线交易 03 04 铁矿：多9空1 双焦：中性观望 目 录 05 02 热卷：短线操作 01 螺纹钢：短线交易 01 投资策略：涨跌空间不大 区间交易为主 主要观点 黑色：涨跌空间不大 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/19 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 白天霖 执业编号：F03138690 上周螺纹钢价格先涨后跌，现货与期货涨幅相当，基差持稳。宏观方面，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税， 国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再度去化， 但是需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。 后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美 贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低 估值背景下，预 ...

金十数据5月9日讯，巴克莱表示，日本国债市场目前可能在区间内交易。委员们表示，市场对日本央行 加息的预期可能需要一段时间才能恢复，因为这可能需要美日贸易谈判和美国政策的更多确定性。从风 险调整后的利差降息角度来看，10年期日本国债收益率的吸引力应会为区间交易提供支撑。虽然如果日 本央行在2026年1月之前加息，短期债券收益率可能会有上行空间，但短期和中期债券可能会在一段时 间内保持区间波动，因为这取决于贸易政策的结果。 巴克莱称，日本国债市场目前可能在区间内交易 ...