螺纹：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-02-02 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 2月观点：震荡格局延续 区间交易为主 逻辑与策略 1月回顾：1月份，黑色期货价格冲高回落，呈现出"倒V型"走势，较去年12月底稳中有涨，就指数涨跌幅度而言，呈现出焦煤 >焦炭>热卷>螺纹>铁矿格局。宏观方面，市场氛围偏暖，大宗商品价格普涨，而黑色表现平淡。产业方面，1月螺纹钢需求季节性走 弱，产量小幅回升，库存逐步累积，不过目前库存处于近年同期低位水平。 2月展望：宏观方面，全球不确定性加剧，美国对伊朗实施新一轮制裁、美联储新任主席人选影响后期货币政策，短期国内可能 处于政策真空期，产业方面，2月因春节放假，钢材需求回落幅度加大，累库速度会加快，目前钢厂利润尚可，关注产量变化，原料端， 节前下游仍存在一定补库空间，对原料价格有所支撑，不过原料自身供需格局偏宽松。从估值角度来看，目前螺纹钢价格略高于电炉 谷电与长流程成本，估值中性略偏低，预计2月价格涨跌空间都不大，延续震荡格局 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Corn: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - term, focusing on the pressure at previous high points; follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost in the long - term, with emphasis on policy guidance [4][6][7] - Pig: In the short - term, supply and demand growth drive narrow price fluctuations; in the medium - term, supply pressure eases from April; in the long - term, supply pressure weakens after September. Consider low - buying opportunities for contracts after 2609 if sow inventory keeps falling [9][11][12] - Eggs: In the short - term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. In February, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may push prices down. In the medium - term, egg supply pressure remains. In the long - term, the rising scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases. Look for short - selling opportunities for near - term contracts [14][15][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 9th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were slightly stronger. Northeast enterprises' mainstream purchase price was 2163 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; North China's average purchase price was 2253 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [4] - North and south port prices rose slightly on the 9th. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2265 - 2275 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Shekou Port's transaction price was 2410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 9th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 1900 to 36555 hands [4] - In the 2nd week of 2026, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 56%, higher than last year's 49% and the three - year average of 48%; in North China, it was 47%, compared with last year's 50% and the three - year average of 46% [4] - As of January 9th, the total corn inventory at four northern ports was about 1.56 million tons, and the inventory at Guangdong Port was 800,000 tons [4] - In the 2nd week of 2026, CGS's corn bidding purchase plan was 57,400 tons, with 73,600 tons actually transacted (77% success rate); the bidding sales plan was 304,900 tons, with 264,800 tons actually transacted (87% success rate); the two - way purchase and sales plan was 99,500 tons, with 30,600 tons actually transacted (31% success rate) [5] Market Logic - Medium - term: The corn market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. New - grain selling is faster year - on - year, and downstream restocking provides support. However, imported corn auctions and rumors may limit price increases. Maintain a wide - range trading approach [6] - Long - term: Follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [6] Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading approach in the medium - term. For the 2603 contract, focus on the pressure at 2270 - 2280; for the 2605 contract, focus on 2280, and if it breaks through, the pressure moves up to 2300 [7] Pig Important Information - On the 9th, the national average pig price was 12.61 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg [9] - The official data shows that the number of fertile sows in October 2025 was 39.9 million, dropping below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [9] - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July). In October and November 2025, it decreased by 1% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a supply pressure relief from April [9] - As of January 8th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.1 kg, down 0.29 kg from the previous week [9] - On January 9th, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [9] - As of January 9th, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 918 hands [10] Market Logic - Short - term: Supply and demand growth lead to price fluctuations with limited upside and downside. After mid - month, the return of the southern population may put pressure on southern prices, narrowing the north - south price difference [11] - Medium - term: Supply is expected to increase until March, but pressure will ease from April. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [11] - Long - term: Supply pressure exists until September. If the sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities for contracts after 2609 [11] Trading Strategy - Maintain a range - trading approach. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 11900 - 12000, and the support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 12400 - 12500, and the support is at 12000 - 12100; for the 2607 contract, the pressure is at 13000, and the support is at 12700; for the 2609 contract, the pressure is at 14000, and the support is at 13500 - 13700 [12] Eggs Important Information - On the 9th, the national egg price was stable with slight increases in some areas. The average price in main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; in main sales areas, it was 3.56 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - On the 9th, the overall inventory was stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.04 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days [14] - On the 9th, the average price of Hy - Line brown old hens in the mainstream market was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged. As of January 8th, the weekly culling age was 484 days, unchanged [14] - In December, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion. The theoretical estimated number in January is 1.334 billion [14] - As of January 9th, the number of egg futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7 hands [14] Market Logic - Short - term: After continuous price increases, the supply and demand are balanced, and prices are stable. The current average price is between feed and breeding costs. In February, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may push prices down [15] - Medium - term: The decline in culling age is insufficient, and chick replenishment is increasing. The egg supply pressure remains, and the spot price is expected to be low [15] - Long - term: The increasing scale of egg - chicken farming may limit price increases. Wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [15] Trading Strategy - Given the pessimistic expectation for February's spot price, look for short - selling opportunities for near - term contracts after a price increase. Also, consider the reverse spread opportunity for the 2603/2604 contracts. For the 2603 contract, the first pressure is at 3030 - 3050, the second at 3060 - 3080. A break below 3000 may lead to further price drops. Don't be overly optimistic about the egg price in the second half of the year before over - culling occurs. Focus on the culling situation in the first quarter [16] Regional Grain - Selling Progress Northeast Region - In the 2nd week of 2026, the overall grain - selling progress in the Northeast was 56%, with 66% in Heilongjiang, 46% in Jilin, 62% in Liaoning, and 51% in Inner Mongolia [23] North China Region - In the 2nd week of 2026, the overall grain - selling progress in North China was 47%, with 41% in Hebei, 49% in Henan, and 51% in Shandong [25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its implications for gold prices indicate a cautious market outlook, with potential for both upward and downward movements in the near term [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [1][5]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further rate hikes are "extremely unlikely," indicating a dovish stance [1][5]. - The Fed's updated "dot plot" suggests only one rate cut is planned for 2026, while futures market traders anticipate two cuts, reflecting differing expectations [1][5][6]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $4,181, reaching a high of $4,238 before closing at $4,227, forming a small bullish candle [1][5]. - Technical analysis indicates resistance at the $4,240-$4,250 range, with potential for upward movement to $4,280-$4,300 if this level is breached [2][6]. - Conversely, a drop below the $4,200 level could lead to a decline towards $4,180 [2][6]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The current market environment suggests a "range trading" strategy, focusing on short positions near resistance and long positions near support [2][6]. - Specific trading recommendations include shorting gold at the $4,238-$4,240 range with a stop loss at $4,250 and a target of $4,200-$4,180 [3][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]

Market Overview - As of September 19, Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 240 contracts in corn futures to 30,658 contracts compared to the previous trading day [1] - The USDA crop report indicated that as of September 14, corn harvest completion was at 7%, up from 4% the previous week, but below market expectations of 9% [1] - The corn good-to-excellent rating stands at 67%, slightly down from 68% the previous week, but higher than last year's 65%, marking the highest level for this time of year since 2018 [1] - Forecasts suggest that 100% of major corn-producing states will experience above-normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days, with 61% expecting below-normal precipitation [1] Institutional Insights - Short-term outlook indicates signs of stabilization in the spot market during the transition period, with no recent announcements for imported corn auctions [2] - The new season corn planting cost support range is identified between 2,050-2,150 RMB/ton, while the upper pressure is monitored against the wheat-corn price spread [2] - Mid-term trading strategies will focus on new season corn dynamics, including opening prices, farmer selling sentiment, and downstream storage efforts, maintaining a wide range trading approach [2] - Long-term pricing logic remains centered on import substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy direction [2] Regional Market Conditions - Northeast new season corn is being marketed smoothly with good quality, while old crop inventories are low and new season prices are stable [3] - In North China, new corn prices continue to decline, but the rate of decline is slowing, while old corn supply remains tight and prices are firm [3] - The market in consumption areas shows stability, with feed manufacturers' inventories at low levels, providing some support for prices due to minimal demand for replenishment [3] - Traders currently show weak intentions to hold inventory, with expectations of price declines during the concentrated marketing period from mid-October to November [3] - On the futures side, the main contracts are trading at a significant discount to spot prices, with seasonal bearish expectations fully priced in, indicating strong support [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall investment strategy for the black metal industry is that the price fluctuation range is limited, and interval trading is the main approach. For specific varieties, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading for rebar and hot - rolled coils, adopt a long - September and short - January strategy for iron ore, and maintain a neutral and wait - and - see stance for coking coal and coke [4][33][58][59][108]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to fluctuate due to low valuation and upcoming demand weakening [4]. - **Market Review**: The price first rose and then fell last week. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3210 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed at 3082 yuan/ton, also up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis remained stable at 128 yuan [12]. - **Steel Mill Profits**: Long - process steel mill profits improved, with an estimated profit of about 149 yuan/ton in East China. Short - process profits remained stable, with a flat - electricity profit of about - 114 yuan/ton. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 59.31% (+0.44%) [17]. - **Futures Valuation**: The futures price is lower than the EAF valley - electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level [19]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Last week, production increased by 3.0 tons to 226.53 tons, apparent demand increased by 46.39 tons to 260.29 tons, and inventory decreased by 33.76 tons to 619.87 tons [27]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term operation or take profit on short positions. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [33]. - **Valuation**: Spot prices rose, with the Shanghai 4.75 hot - rolled coil at 3290 yuan/t, up 70 yuan/t week - on - week. Futures prices strengthened, with the 10 - contract closing at 3226 yuan/t, up 69 yuan/t week - on - week. The basis strengthened by 4 yuan to 84 yuan [39]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material prices varied. Coke prices in Shanxi decreased by 49 yuan/t, Tangshan scrap steel prices increased by 40 yuan/t, and PB powder prices in Rizhao increased by 25 yuan/t. The profit of hot - rolled coils rebounded to about - 69 yuan/t (+8 yuan/t), and the profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 58.87% (+0.84%) [41]. - **Supply**: Last week, the output of five major steel products was stable, with daily hot - metal output at 244.77t/d (- 0.87t/d week - on - week). The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, with the MS small - sample output at 311.98wt (- 8.40wt week - on - week) [44]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products weakened, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils fluctuated, with the MS small - sample at 329.53wt (+20.00wt week - on - week) [48]. - **Inventory**: The mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased to a historical low, with the MS small - sample at 78.22wt (- 6.58wt), and the social inventory continued to decline, with the MS small - sample at 269.35wt (- 10.97wt) [54]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: Neutral and wait - and - see [58][59]. - **Coking Coal** - **Price**: Domestic coking coal spot prices declined. The price of coking coal in Shanxi was 1150.00 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the price of Mongolian coal was 1015.00 yuan/ton (- 5.00). The futures price fluctuated and was 852.50 yuan/ton (- 25.00) [66]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic main - producing areas was generally stable, with some areas experiencing phased production cuts. The daily output of 110 coal - washing plants was 52.81 tons (- 0.29), and the operating rate was 62.08% (- 0.34) [75]. - **Demand**: The coke market had a continuous price - cut expectation, and downstream coking enterprises maintained a low - inventory procurement strategy [58]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly to 2632.11 tons (- 8.09). Mine inventory increased to 410.50 tons (+20.10), while downstream steel mill and coking plant inventory decreased to 1676.14 tons (- 27.69), and port inventory decreased to 545.47 tons (- 0.50) [83]. - **Coke** - **Price**: The spot price was 1380.00 yuan/ton (- 50.00), and the futures price fluctuated and was 1445.50 yuan/ton (- 1.00) [87]. - **Supply**: The production of main - producing areas was stable, with some areas continuing to limit production due to profit pressure [59]. - **Demand**: Steel mills maintained a low - inventory management model, and the terminal demand had a seasonal weakening expectation [59]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly to 1039.49 tons (- 9.66). Coking plant inventory decreased to 94.31 tons (- 0.13), steel mill inventory decreased to 663.80 tons (- 7.23), and port inventory decreased to 281.38 tons (- 2.30) [103]. Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: Long - September and short - January. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [108]. - **Market Review**: The spot prices of various grades of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased. The 09 - contract futures price closed at 728 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week [110]. - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises was 63.89% (+1.27% week - on - week), the daily output of iron ore concentrate was 49.88 tons (+0.98), and the inventory was 103.27 tons (+2.71) [130]. - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 9, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,422.4 tons (- 118 week - on - week), with Australian shipments at 1,797.2 tons (+28) and Brazilian shipments at 625.2 tons (- 146) [136]. - **Port Situation**: On May 9, the arrival volume at 45 domestic ports was 2,354.6 tons (- 95.1 week - on - week), the number of ships at 47 ports was 86 (+2), and the average daily port clearance volume was 323.89 tons (+8.68) [141]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 domestic ports was 14,166.09 tons (- 72.62 week - on - week), and the inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 8,961.16 tons (+2.18). The total inventory decreased by 70.44 tons [142]. - **Steel Mill Demand**: The profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 59.31% (+0.44% week - on - week), the daily hot - metal output was 244.77 tons (- 0.87), and the furnace charge ratio was sinter ore 73.31%, pellet ore 14.55%, and lump ore 12.14% [151].

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that the Japanese government bond market is likely to trade within a range for the time being, with expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan taking time to materialize [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market's anticipation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may require more certainty regarding US-Japan trade negotiations and US policies before it can recover [1] - The attractiveness of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield from a risk-adjusted spread perspective is expected to support range trading [1] Group 2: Bond Yield Dynamics - Short-term bond yields may have upward potential if the Bank of Japan raises rates before January 2026 [1] - Short- and medium-term bonds are likely to remain in a range for some time, depending on the outcomes of trade policies [1]