Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a cumulative operating revenue of 3.826 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 348 million yuan, up 72.56% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 341 million yuan, increasing by 106.81% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the operating revenue was 1.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 164.38% to 115 million yuan, and the non-recurring net profit rose by 196.21% to 123 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved to 25.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin rose by 4.7 percentage points to 8.51% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant improvement in gross and net profit margins, alongside enhanced cost control and increased R&D investment. The expense ratio decreased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing varied changes [2]. - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 5.35 billion, 6.29 billion, and 7.11 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 510 million, 640 million, and 750 million yuan [5][6]. Market Opportunities - The foldable smartphone market is anticipated to experience rapid growth in 2026, driven by key products like Huawei's Mate and Pura X series. The company’s flagship product, the drilling machine, has achieved comprehensive coverage of core users in the 3C sector, with a market share leading the industry [3]. - The company is actively expanding its product applications in AI hardware and humanoid robots, collaborating with clients in these fields for precision processing of components [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the 3C sector and the domestic production of high-end machine tools. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33, 26, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - China's CNC machine tool industry is rapidly advancing towards high-end manufacturing, driven in part by Switzerland's previous supply restrictions, which have inadvertently accelerated domestic development [1][19][27]. Group 1: Swiss Machine Tool Industry - Switzerland's precision machining industry is highly regarded, particularly known for its watchmaking, which reflects the strength of its machine tool sector [3][5]. - Swiss machine tools rank among the top five in global exports, with export revenues consistently leading the world for over 20 years [5][9]. - The price of Swiss machine tools is significantly higher than those from Japan, the US, and China, indicating their premium quality [7][15]. Group 2: Impact of Supply Restrictions - Since 2021, Swiss machine tool exports to China have plummeted by 37% due to US pressure, leading to significant inventory buildup and production halts among Swiss manufacturers [19][25]. - The loss of the Chinese market has created challenges for Swiss manufacturers, as their products are not easily sellable to other countries due to limited demand for high-precision equipment [21][23]. Group 3: China's Machine Tool Development - China's CNC machine tool production value ranks first globally, but the domestic high-end machine tool localization rate has historically been low, with only 6% in 2018 [29][31]. - The localization rates for mid-range and high-end CNC machine tools have improved significantly, with high-end rates rising to 15.6% by 2022 [31][33]. - By 2029, it is projected that the sales of high-end and mid-range CNC machine tools in China will reach 57,000 and 207,000 units, respectively, indicating a shift towards domestic production [33][39]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The development of high-end machine tools in China is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand in sectors like aerospace and military manufacturing [31][39]. - Chinese machine tool companies are beginning to innovate, with advancements in precision and the integration of AI technologies, which may allow them to compete directly with Swiss products [35][37]. - The industry must adopt an international perspective to ensure sustainable growth and avoid over-reliance on domestic markets [41][45].

Core Insights - Tsugami Machine Tool China (01651) saw a stock increase of over 7%, reaching 28.58 HKD with a trading volume of 79.25 million HKD [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025 (April 2024 - March 2025), the company reported a net profit of 782 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 63% [1] - Revenue for the same period was 4.262 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.6% [1] Future Outlook - The company aims to challenge a sales revenue target of 5 billion RMB in the new fiscal year, potentially surpassing the record set in fiscal year 2022 [1] - The expansion into new markets such as AI liquid cooling connectors and automotive electric braking systems is expected to drive revenue growth [1] Industry Trends - Tsugami Machine Tool China is enhancing its production line and optimizing existing machine designs while actively entering emerging sectors like humanoid robots, medical applications, and AIDC liquid cooling [1] - The company's products are utilized in planetary ball screw processing and robotic dexterous hands, primarily involving automatic lathes, turret lathes, thread rolling machines, and thread grinding machines [1] - According to Northeast Securities, the upgrade of downstream industries and equipment renewal policies are accelerating the localization of high-end machine tools [1] - The mass production of humanoid robots is expected to increase demand for core components, with the machine tool equipment market potentially reaching a growth space of 100 billion RMB [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tsugami Machine Tool China (01651) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, with a current price of 28.58 HKD and a trading volume of 79.2553 million HKD, following the release of its fiscal year 2025 report, which shows significant growth in profit and revenue [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025 (April 2024 - March 2025), the company reported a net profit of 782 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 63% [1] - The revenue for the same period reached 4.262 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.6% [1] Future Outlook - The company aims to challenge a sales revenue target of 5 billion RMB in the new fiscal year, potentially surpassing the record set in fiscal year 2022 [1] - The expansion into new markets such as AI liquid cooling joints and automotive electric braking systems is expected to drive revenue growth [1] Product and Market Development - Tsugami Machine Tool China is actively enhancing its product line and optimizing existing machine designs while venturing into emerging sectors like humanoid robots, medical applications, and AIDC liquid cooling [1] - The company's products are utilized in planetary ball screw processing and robotic dexterous hand manufacturing, with key equipment including automatic lathes, turret lathes, thread rolling machines, and thread grinding machines [1] Industry Trends - According to Northeast Securities, the upgrade of downstream industries and equipment renewal policies are accelerating the localization of high-end machine tools [1] - The mass production of humanoid robots is expected to increase the demand for core components, with the incremental space for machine tool equipment projected to reach 10 billion RMB [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tsugami Machine Tool China (01651) has seen a significant stock increase of over 7%, with a current price of 28.58 HKD and a trading volume of 79.25 million HKD, following the release of its fiscal year 2025 report indicating strong financial performance and growth prospects [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 782 million RMB for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 63% [1]. - Revenue reached 4.262 billion RMB, marking a 36.6% year-on-year growth [1]. Future Outlook - The company aims to challenge a sales revenue target of 5 billion RMB in the new fiscal year, with expectations to surpass the record set in fiscal year 2022 [1]. - The expansion into new markets such as AI liquid cooling connectors and automotive electric brake systems is anticipated to drive revenue growth [1]. Product and Market Development - Tsugami Machine Tool China is actively enhancing its production line and optimizing existing machine designs while venturing into emerging sectors like humanoid robots, medical applications, and AIDC liquid cooling [1]. - The company's products are utilized in planetary ball screw processing and robotic dexterous hand manufacturing, primarily involving automatic lathes, turret lathes, thread rolling machines, and thread grinding machines [1]. Industry Trends - According to Northeast Securities, the upgrade of downstream industries combined with equipment renewal policies is accelerating the localization of high-end machine tools [1]. - The mass production of humanoid robots is expected to increase the demand for core components, with the potential for machine tool equipment market growth reaching hundreds of billions [1].