分析师认为，高贝塔股票拥挤程度从25分位数飙升至100分位数仅用时3个月，创下30年来最快速度，这种技术性驱动的快速上行或不可持续。 极端拥挤交易达到历史高位 摩根大通数据显示，今年已出现三次极端拥挤交易事件：1月份动量因子拥挤程度达到100分位数；4月份低波动率拥挤程度达到96分位数；而目前高贝塔拥 挤程度再次触及100分位数的极端水平。 摩根大通警告，随着标普500指数创下历史新高，突破6300点关口，美股市场正陷入"极度自满"状态，高贝塔股票的拥挤程度已达到创纪录水平，这可能引 发市场大幅回调。 摩根大通全球市场策略负责人Dubravko Lakos-Bujas表示，当前高贝塔股票的拥挤程度已达到100分位数的极端水平。这种拥挤状况源于市场对"金发姑娘"经 济情景的定价预期，包括经济增长韧性和美联储宽松预期的结合。 但分析师同时表示，如果商业周期重新加速，包括贸易协议明确化、资本支出周期扩大，以及在美联储宽松政策支持下资本市场活动更加活跃，这些因素可 能支撑高贝塔板块的继续上涨。 当前高贝塔拥挤交易的速度使其面临回调的风险特别突出。从历史数据看，拥挤程度在3个月内从25分位数激增至100分位数，这种速度 ...

Group 1 - Investors are heavily pouring into speculative and volatile sectors, ignoring the risks implied by the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [1] - The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF is on track for its best quarterly performance since 2020, while Goldman Sachs' weak balance sheet stock index is expected to achieve its best monthly performance since January [1] - The current market sentiment reflects a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) cycle typical at the end of structural bull markets, despite high economic and policy uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Retail investors have become key drivers, actively pursuing momentum trades in tech giants and speculative assets, even as institutional investors sold off during market declines [3] - The preference for buying the dip has become a conditioned response among investors, particularly for high beta stocks during market downturns [3] - Large tech stocks have been the main engine of the market over the past two years, with a strong rebound in the S&P 500 following a brief period of concern over AI competition [3] Group 3 - The technology sector has a low weight in small-cap indices, with information technology and communication services accounting for nearly 43% of the S&P 500 but only 13% of the Russell 2000 [4] - Strong performance in tech companies is driving earnings growth at the index level, with S&P 500 component earnings expected to grow by about 8% year-on-year, led by a nearly 21% expected increase in the information technology sector [4] - In times of uncertain earnings prospects, investors tend to favor sectors with long-term themes [4]