Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

Group 1 - The core of the global market's risk appetite recovery is attributed to the loosening of dollar liquidity, with potential risks arising from changes in Federal Reserve policy or cross-border capital flows [3][5] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trades have led to increased confidence among investors, resulting in new highs for developed and emerging markets, including US, European, and Asian stocks [4][5] - The current environment of dollar liquidity is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and cross-border capital movements, impacting multiple markets and asset classes [5] Group 2 - Recent changes in dollar liquidity can be observed through five dimensions, including a significant decline in the dollar index, which has dropped 2.4% in the last quarter and 10% year-to-date [6][9] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased by over 20 basis points since the peak in April, contributing to a more favorable risk sentiment [9] - Global central banks have accelerated their monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the last quarter [11] Group 3 - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-US equity markets [13] - Foreign capital inflows into non-US equity markets are becoming evident, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [15] - In the broader non-US equity markets, foreign capital inflows have been observed in various Asian markets, contrasting with the net outflows seen over the past 12 months [19] Group 4 - The current AI wave has led to significant capital expenditures among tech giants, with an average capital expenditure growth rate of 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the effectiveness of these investments [24] - The recent rise in US stocks has shown a barbell structure, with tech giants on one end and small-cap stocks on the other, reflecting a market pricing in economic resilience and policy risk reduction [27] - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the ratio of total market capitalization to nominal GDP, has reached a historical high of 2.1, indicating potential overvaluation in the US stock market [30][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recovery of global risk appetite and stock market increases are primarily driven by the loosening of dollar liquidity, with potential risks arising from changes in Federal Reserve policies or cross-border capital flows [2][4] - The article discusses the phenomenon of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading, which has led to increased confidence among investors and a bullish atmosphere in various global markets, including US, European, and Asian stocks [4][5] Group 2 - The improvement in global risk appetite is attributed to the loosening of dollar liquidity, which is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and cross-border capital flows [5][6] - The dollar index has significantly declined, dropping 2.4% in the past quarter and 10% year-to-date, which has positively impacted non-US stock markets [7][9] - The actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds have decreased, providing a foundation for risk sentiment release, with a decline of over 20 basis points since April [9][11] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the past quarter [11][14] - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-US equity markets [14][16] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital inflow into non-US equity markets, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [16][19] - Various Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, have experienced net inflows of foreign capital since July, contrasting with the previous 12 months of net outflows [19][20] Group 4 - The article highlights concerns regarding the effectiveness of capital expenditures by technology giants amid the current AI boom, with an average capital expenditure growth rate of 18% projected for tech stocks from 2021 to 2024 [20][22] - The current market structure shows a "barbell" effect, with significant gains in both large tech companies and small-cap stocks, indicating a potential increase in market fragility [22][26] Group 5 - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the ratio of total market capitalization to nominal GDP, has reached a historical high of 2.1, suggesting a potential overvaluation of the market [26][28] - Comparisons of risk premiums across global indices reveal that US and Indian stocks have low risk premiums, while A-shares and Korean stocks maintain higher levels [31][34] - The article concludes that the high valuation levels across major stock indices, combined with the low risk premiums in developed markets, indicate a potential bubble in the current market environment [39]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - Recent global market risk appetite has significantly improved, with many developed and emerging market indices reaching new highs, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks entering a bull market atmosphere[2] - The decline of the US dollar index by 10% this year has notably boosted non-US stock markets[2] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased, alleviating valuation pressure on global assets[2] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply growth, with 76 rate cuts this year compared to only 19 rate hikes, particularly benefiting non-US markets[2] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The "Buffett Indicator" (total market capitalization/GDP) for US stocks has reached a historical high of 2.1, approximately 2.9 standard deviations above the long-term average, indicating potential overvaluation[3] - The capital expenditure growth rate for tech giants is projected at 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth and potential valuation corrections[3] - The current valuation levels of major markets show that US, Indian, Vietnamese, and German stocks are at absolute highs, while risk premiums for Indian, US, and Vietnamese stocks are relatively low[4] Group 3: Market Sensitivities and Risks - The high non-fundamental premium in markets like A-shares and German stocks suggests increased sensitivity to potential reversals in dollar liquidity or changes in capital flows[4] - If the Federal Reserve's policies or cross-border capital flows change, markets with high non-fundamental premiums may be more vulnerable to corrections[4] - The report highlights the potential for a "shrinking circle" effect in global markets if risk appetite declines, particularly affecting markets with high non-fundamental premiums[4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged as relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts after the weakening of the labor market, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. However, in the short term, the resonance upward movement of the Chinese and US equity markets has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and the upward movement of the gold price may still need to build momentum. The price of spot gold is relatively mild below 3500, and its elasticity may increase after breaking through this level. The recovery of risk appetite brings greater short - term elasticity to silver, but the pressure at the 40 - dollar mark is still obvious, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed could have cut interest rates in June and July, there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts, the current Fed interest rate should be further lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, the Fed's interest rate is restrictive, he is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, the Fed's spending is not supervised, he is considering recruiting relevant talents from the private sector to serve in the Fed, he will not support stopping the release of employment reports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in advance if the data is accurate [2]. - Russia responded to the "Putin - Biden meeting" regarding territorial issues. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Fadeyev stated that Russia's territorial composition is determined in the national constitution, and the goals of the Russian delegation in the Russia - US leader negotiations will be based entirely on national interests [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for Fed Chairman has expanded to 11. Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to replace Fed Chairman Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unannounced candidates. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview all candidates, screen the list, and submit the final list to the president for a decision, but no timetable was provided [3]. Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price rose slightly, and silver recorded a larger increase. US inflation rose as expected, and the impact of tariffs was limited. After the weakening of the labor market, relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. Fed Chairman Powell may give a clearer statement at the global central bank annual meeting next week. The dominant logic in the past quarter, "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest rate cut expectations", is shifting to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest rate cut expectations". The change of the Fed leadership may bring a more dovish path in the long - term and a re - consideration of the Fed's independence [4]. Outlook - This week, the range of spot London gold is expected to be between 3340 and 3500 US dollars per ounce, and the range of spot London silver is expected to be between 37 and 40 US dollars per ounce [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-12 短线贵⾦属回调，关注美国通胀数据 7⽉美国CPI预期上⾏，市场⼀致预期核⼼CPI环⽐0.31%，同⽐约3. 1%，美元指数⽇内同步向上，给⾦价带来短时回调压⼒。我们认为三季 度美国通胀的回升符合预期，美联储在⾮农数据恶化和⼈事变动的双重压 ⼒下，部分票委态度显著转鸽，通胀温和上⾏对降息预期的⼲扰有限。 7⽉⾮农数据是市场情绪的重要转折，"TACO交易+美国基本⾯韧性+降 息预期收敛"的主导逻辑，开始向"美国基本⾯⾛弱验证+降息预期扩 张"切换，美联储换届或带来远期更加鸽派的路径和美联储独⽴性的重新 考量。 重点资讯： 1）美国财长贝森特在接受采访时表示，美国总统特朗普的关税政策 旨在将制造业带回美国。贸易方面，他认为到10月底前就能基本完成 相关工作。贝森特称，下任美联储主席应获市场信任，希望美联储主 席具备 "前瞻性思维"。 2）中国稀土集团发布严正声明称，公司从未与相关机构、单位就所 谓"稀土人民币稳定币"开展任何形式的合作、磋商或计划，该信息 系不法分子恶意编造，请社会公众和广大投资者不信不传。公司提醒 社 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil and gas stocks experienced a significant rise in the afternoon trading session, influenced by geopolitical developments regarding Russia and oil sanctions [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shandong Molong (00568) increased by 16.83%, trading at 4.72 HKD [1] - MI Energy (01555) rose by 12.82%, trading at 0.044 HKD [1] - Baikin Oilfield Services (02178) saw a 10% increase, trading at 0.077 HKD [1] - Jixing New Energy (03395) gained 5.56%, trading at 0.475 HKD [1] Group 2: Oil Price Movement - International oil prices surged significantly overnight, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 3.75% to 69.21 USD per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.53%, reaching 72.51 USD per barrel [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Trump set a new deadline of 10-12 days for Russia to reach an agreement, threatening secondary sanctions on Russian oil if not met [1] - Huatai Futures noted that while the oil market fundamentals are currently strong, a shift to a demand lull is expected starting in August, which may not support higher oil prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - After Trump announced the shortening of the cease - fire observation period between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices rose, presenting a dilemma for Trump. Sanctioning Russia for a cease - fire would lead to rising oil prices and soaring inflation. The current oil fundamentals are strong but will turn into the off - season from August, not supporting higher oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.49% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump believes that North Sea oil is a treasure for the UK, and the high taxes are hard to understand. He thinks drilling companies should be quickly incentivized to exploit this wealth, which can bring huge wealth to the UK and significantly reduce people's energy costs [1] - Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that Russia noted Trump's statement on shortening the deadline for a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Russia is still committed to the peaceful resolution of the conflict and safeguarding its interests. Regarding Russia - US relations, Russia hopes to accelerate the normalization process, but the current situation does not allow for a strategic stability dialogue, and a Putin - Trump meeting is not on the agenda. Russia and the US have not contacted each other on extending the New START Treaty [1] - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. OPEC+ aims to ensure energy security and market balance, and its decisions are based on market developments. Kuwait supports efforts to stabilize the international oil market [1] Investment Logic - After Trump's announcement on the cease - fire observation period, rising oil prices pose a dilemma for him. Sanctioning Russia may lead to inflation, and the current fundamentals do not support high oil prices as the demand off - season is coming [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1: US Market Focus - Inflation risks remain high, and the Federal Reserve maintained its stance in July [7][12] - TACO trading continues to be established, with companies like Broadcom and GE Vernova highlighted for their growth potential [15][18] - The impact of tariffs on US importers is significant, with the potential for increased consumer prices in sensitive categories [11][10] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - The US-Japan agreement reduces market uncertainty, with tariff reductions benefiting Japanese automakers [27][34] - Companies like Fanuc and Bridgestone are expected to benefit from the lowered tariffs, enhancing their market positions [39][38] - The political landscape in Japan is shifting, with pressures on leadership potentially affecting market stability [31][32] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Economic growth and inflation are expected to slow, supporting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Thailand [45][52] - The Thai stock market has reflected multiple risks, with companies like CP ALL and Central Pattana being monitored for performance [45][54] - The Thai government is negotiating to lower tariffs on exports to the US, which could positively impact trade dynamics [50][51]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in US stock markets is driven by fundamental factors rather than valuation or sentiment, with corporate earnings outlook improving since April [2][4] - Major technology companies are showing strong growth, particularly in AI investments, which is expected to support overall market performance [2][6] - The US fiscal deficit is projected to remain high due to the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which may keep long-term interest rates elevated and increase market volatility [2][5] Group 2 - In the context of China's economic recovery and easing trade tensions, the pace of stimulus policies is expected to be gradual and focused on precision [4][5] - The proportion of stocks and funds in Chinese household asset allocation is only about 12%, indicating significant room for growth compared to the US average of around 40% [4][5] - The dividend levels of Chinese companies are improving, with the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index reaching approximately 3.5%, enhancing the attractiveness of the stock market relative to bonds [5][6] Group 3 - The A-share market is viewed as having attractive valuation levels, with a healthy overall sentiment and low issuance of equity funds [6][7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on high-quality stocks with stable cash flows and sustainable dividend growth in a low-interest-rate environment [7] - Three sectors are highlighted for potential strong performance: dividend stocks, new productive forces, and new consumption [6][7]