黑色建材日报 2026-01-28 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.47 万手，环比减少 16197 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.39%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 150.84 万手，环比减少 6369 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪较好，成材价格继续在底部区间内震荡。基本面方面，热轧卷板供需双双回落，库 存水平逐步下降并趋 ...

资产概览：国际金银价格刷新历史记录 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——资产配置全球跟踪 2026 年 1 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 01/19-01/23，美欧反复博弈引发市场 TACO 与避险交易。国际金银价格均刷新历史 记录。美元指数全周大跌 1.9%。美联储 26 年降息路径稳定，27 年加息预期升温。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.26 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭佼佼(分析师) | | | 021-38031042 | | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 成交活跃度下降，中证 1000 估值领涨 2026.01.25 AI 硬件景气强化，科技制造出海延续 2026.01.22 基金增配资源、硬科技与非银 2026.01.22 资产概览：贵金属与日韩权益领涨 2026.01.19 主动外资大幅 ...

格隆汇1月26日｜BCA Research全球投资策略团队副总裁Miroslav Aradski表示，如果采用滚动高点的方 法，即从最近一次市场高位而非按日历周期计算跌幅，标普500指数已连续185天未出现10%的回撤。这 一时长本身并不意味着回调迫在眉睫，但长期的平静容易滋生自满情绪。即便市场似乎对政治言辞越来 越"脱敏"，地缘政治依然是一个高度不可预测的风险。Aradski指出，"TACO交易"的核心存在一个深刻 的悖论，即市场基于政策威胁终将被收回的假设而选择忽略它们，"在缺乏市场约束的情况下，特朗普 反而拥有更大的空间去推进可能具有破坏性的政策。这意味着，当下一次危机到来时，规模可能会超过 上一次。" ...

格陵兰岛风波在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会期间，经历了一个戏剧性的急转弯。美国总统特朗普一开始发出了不卖岛就加关税的威胁，引发了全球金融 市场的剧烈波动。然而，仅仅几天后，他突然改口，宣布与北约达成了一个协议框架，取消了先前的关税威胁和武力威胁。面对美国政策的频繁反复和不确 定性，欧洲一批重要的机构投资者，尤其是丹麦的AkademikerPension养老基金，率先发出了卖出美国的信号。这些机构手握超过3.6万亿美元的美债，它们 是否能在一定程度上浇灭美国对格陵兰岛的野心，成为全球关注的焦点。 特朗普突然撤回关税威胁，协议框架究竟包含了什么内容呢？1月21日，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会上宣布，经过与北约秘书长马克·吕特的卓 有成效会晤，双方就格陵兰岛及整个北极地区未来的协议框架达成了初步共识。基于这一协议，他决定取消此前计划于2月1日生效的对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、 法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰等八个欧洲国家加征关税的措施。然而，这份所谓的协议框架并未被美方和北约完全公开。特朗普表示，该协议将涉及防务 和矿产开采安排，称这对所有相关方都将有利，并表示美国得到了它想要的一切。根据央视新闻的报道，尽管协议并不 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：高位震荡，边际仍有偏向上动能 ◆ 沪铝目前在24000-25000区间内偏盘整，近期微观供需持续羸弱，但宏观风偏整体乐观，尽管阶段性有欧美贸易战的 扰动，但随后伴随特朗普TACO交易再来，短期地缘政治担忧亦很快消散，再叠加美国经济数据强劲，也提振了风险 偏好，美股亦收复本周上半旬失地。传统大金属亦跟随市场风偏向好，而进一步获取了边际向上动能。后续市场应 持续关注以ETF等指数类为代表的配置资金持续进入有色市场的流量变化。 ◆ 短期周度级别的微观需求上，仍偏弱。截至1月22日，铝锭社库较上周累库1.9万吨至76.8万吨。截至1月23日， SMM华东现货贴水小幅收窄至-150元/吨，华南现货贴水亦收窄至-110元/吨。下游方面，截至1月23日铝板带箔周度 总产量环比继续回落，2026年初迄今累计同比下降-1.31%；截至1月22日，铝型材开工环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation surrounding Greenland has dramatically shifted during the World Economic Forum in Davos, with President Trump initially threatening tariffs and then announcing a framework agreement with NATO, which led to the cancellation of those tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Policy and Market Reactions - Following the uncertainty in U.S. policy, European institutional investors, led by Denmark's AkademikerPension, signaled a clear intention to "sell American" assets [2]. - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones dropping 870.74 points (1.76%) on January 20, followed by a rebound of 589 points the next day after Trump's announcement [6][9]. - The term "TACO trading" was used to describe the market's reaction to Trump's threats, indicating a pattern of creating panic followed by retraction [9]. Group 2: European Response to U.S. Actions - Denmark and Greenland expressed strong dissatisfaction with the announced "framework agreement," emphasizing that discussions about sovereignty are non-negotiable [5]. - The European Commission announced plans for substantial investment in Greenland and increased defense spending in the Arctic region [5]. - Several Danish pension funds, including AkademikerPension and Alecta, have begun selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, citing increased policy risks and the desire to reduce financial dependence on the U.S. [13][14]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and European Holdings - Europe holds over $3.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, accounting for approximately 40% of foreign holdings, which is significantly more than the combined holdings of China and Japan [16][17]. - The potential for a sell-off of U.S. debt by European countries raises concerns about the impact on U.S. financial stability and interest rates [18][19]. - Analysts warn that a decline in foreign holdings of U.S. debt could lead to increased yields on U.S. bonds, exacerbating fiscal pressures [18]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Greenland - Greenland is viewed as a strategic asset due to its location and natural resources, including significant reserves of rare earth elements and untapped oil and gas [21][24]. - The melting ice in the Arctic is making resource extraction more feasible, which is particularly appealing to the U.S. as it seeks to revitalize its manufacturing sector [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Cautiously Bearish (Possibility) | Cautiously Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IN) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | √ | | | Hot Rolled Coil | -1 | | | Iron Ore | √ | | | Gold | | √ | | Silver | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Container Shipping to Europe | -1 | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors are advised to buy on dips during short - term adjustments [3][20]. - Short - term rubber prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - The crude oil market is under pressure due to factors such as the possible resumption of diplomatic communication between the US and Iran and the improvement of the situation in Venezuela [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns on the Day International News - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate of the US in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [6]. Domestic News - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23. After deducting the 200 billion yuan of matured MLF in January, the net injection through MLF operations is 700 billion yuan [7]. Industry News - The sales revenue of China's intelligent equipment manufacturing industry in 2025 increased by 28.1% year - on - year, with industrial robots and special operation robots manufacturing growing by 17.4% and 42.1% respectively [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 index rose 0.55%, the European STOXX 50 index rose 0.87%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.35%, the US dollar index fell 0.50%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.41%, London gold rose 2.18%, London silver rose 3.33%, LME aluminum rose 0.72%, LME copper rose 0.23%, LME zinc rose 1.83%, LME nickel rose 0.58%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 1.29%, ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.61%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.61%, CBOT lean hogs fell 0.57%, CBOT wheat rose 1.48%, and CBOT corn rose 0.53% [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. The market is shifting from valuation expansion to profit - driven [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized. The central bank's monetary policy and fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to be moderately loose, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 2.17% at night. Diplomatic communication may resume between the US and Iran, and the situation in Venezuela has improved [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.46% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and coastal methanol inventories increased slightly [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber continued to rebound on Thursday, driven by the strong performance of synthetic rubber. Short - term prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Glass supply and demand are gradually improving, while soda ash still faces inventory digestion pressure [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals rebounded, with international gold and silver hitting new highs. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and short - term dips are buying opportunities [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.43% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and copper prices may experience a phased correction [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.53% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and zinc prices may correct after the release of the optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous market [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.21% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply restrictions provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. The price is likely to rise rather than fall under the current demand logic [24][25]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The short - term decline of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to supply, iron production, and restocking [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with weak supply and demand and narrowing inventory decline [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [28]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal oscillated strongly at night. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is accelerating, and domestic prices are under pressure from high inventory and expected high yield in South America [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils oscillated and adjusted at night. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong in the short term [30]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract remained at a low level. The short - term price is expected to remain low due to seasonal supply pressure [31][32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract oscillated strongly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: EC rose 0.58%. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34].

时隔6年，美国总统重返达沃斯。当地时间21日，素有"世界经济风向标"之称的世界经济论坛年会（达沃斯论坛）进入第三天，美国总统特朗普率包括财长 贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克等高级官员的"最大美国代表团"出席。在全球聚焦的格陵兰岛问题上，特朗普上演戏剧性转向，在短短几小时内就从充满压迫感 的威胁转变为"温和"的语气，他表态，不会使用武力夺取格陵兰，并取消了此前扬言对欧洲国家征收的关税。 an 态度反转 特朗普此前威胁称，如果无法达成收购格陵兰的协议，将从下月起对8个欧洲国家征收10%的惩罚性关税，而且在今年6月将升至25%。20日凌晨，特朗普还 在社交媒体上发布图片：他在白宫办公室与欧洲领导人会面，展板上的地图中，加拿大、格陵兰岛和委内瑞拉均被美国国旗覆盖。 不过特朗普在与北约秘书长马克·吕特会晤后称，暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲八国加征关税。特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文 称，基于他与马克·吕特的会晤，他们已经就格陵兰岛乃至整个北极地区的未来合作框架达成了一致。如果这项方案最终得以落实，将对美国和所有北约成 员国都大有裨益。特朗普表示将不会实施原定于2月1日生效的关税措施。 两名白宫消息人士称 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国在收购格陵兰岛问题上的威胁缓和，全球市场紧张情绪得以纾解，美元走 势趋于企稳，高风险货币则表现强势。 美债市场的回暖也与市场波动的缓解形成共振。美债本周波动区间有望创下2021年以来的次低位，而衡 量美债预期波动率的ICE美银MOVE指数，也已接近四年多以来的最低点。 数据显示，挪威克朗与澳元等通常随风险偏好波动而起伏的货币，周四对美元汇率双双上涨逾0.6%， 在主要货币中领涨。市场波动率指标回落，美债也在连日深度抛售后逐渐回稳。 法国农业信贷银行外汇策略主管Valentin Marinov表示："尽管全球地缘政治风险仍可能主导外汇市场走 势，但在美国总统特朗普释放出美欧已达成'协议框架'的信号后，这类风险的影响大概率已见顶。"他 补充道，这一局面或将持续提振风险货币走势，同时为美元带来短暂喘息。 本周外汇市场的剧烈波动，堪称"TACO"交易的典型范例，这凸显出特朗普惯于先以强硬威胁引发市场 恐慌，再通过达成协议收场的行事风格。不过，此次格陵兰岛地缘风波仍为市场敲响警钟：该事件不仅 扰乱了长期稳定的全球国际关系，也提醒投资者仍需保持警惕。 尽管美元指数企稳，但美元本周仍遭遇明显冲击 ...

美国总统特朗普宣布，已与北约就格陵兰岛问题达成协议框架。特朗普表示，将不会实施原定于2月1日 生效的关税措施。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月22日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1087.58 | 0.69% | 369271 | 201382 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月22日上海黄金现货价格报价1084.88元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1087.58元/克）贴水2.7 元/克。 美国与各国间地缘仍有较大不确定性，海外避险情绪难以消退的，但短期格陵兰岛事件缓和，情绪略有 减弱。 【机构观点】 兴业期货：TACO交易来袭 黄金涨势未变 TACO交易来袭。纽约时报消息，特朗普总统表示与北约达成格陵兰岛合作框架，收回对欧洲8国的关 税威胁。外媒表示美国最高法院或拒绝特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的请求，捍卫美联储独立性。市场避 险情绪回落，昨晚美元、美股双双反弹。本周宏观叙事主导黄金波动，特朗普政府对外事务上的主动性 仍将是最大的国际风险来源，长期黄 ...