1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. TACO trading has heated up again, influenced by the Middle - East situation. The LPR remains unchanged, while the reduced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty add uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. In the short term, the policy signals at the end of the month should be monitored [4]. - The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market. The decline in credit growth and insufficient household financing demand indicate that the restoration of the economy's internal driving force still takes time, and bond yields are still driven downward. However, the impact of rising inflation expectations on short - term sentiment should be noted [3]. - The front - loaded fiscal policy and government bond supply suppress the short - term sentiment of the bond market, but the central bank's liquidity support and potential subsequent overall easing will provide bottom support for the bond market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [10]. - Monthly economic indicators: The scale of social financing is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year remains at 9.00%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points and a growth rate of 2.86% [11]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 and a decline rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.8871, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.026 and a decline rate of 0.38%; SHIBOR for 7 days is 1.44, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.41%; DR007 is 1.42, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.44%; R007 is 1.55, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.44, down 0.02 with a decline rate of 1.23%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.23% [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 31, 2026, are 102.54 yuan, 106.11 yuan, 108.40 yuan, and 111.69 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.082 yuan, 0.050 yuan, 0.031 yuan, and 0.065 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 31, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 3.25 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [3]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.277%, 1.438%, 1.469%, and 1.495% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [3]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread of treasury bond futures, the spread between the current bond term and the futures cross - variety (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.) [8]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [45][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the "Trump TACO trade" strategy has become ineffective, as the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and Trump's control over the situation has diminished significantly [7][8]. Group 1: Reasons for the Ineffectiveness of TACO Trade - The U.S. has transitioned from a "dominant leader" to a "passive responder" in the Middle East, facing rising domestic oil prices, inflation, and declining support rates, making further conflict counterproductive [13][14]. - Trump's short-sighted "speculative" approach has eroded his credibility, as both Iranian leaders and global markets no longer respond to his threats, recognizing them as empty rhetoric [15][18]. - Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are unlikely to yield results, as both sides have vastly different demands, leading to a situation where military actions are used as bargaining chips rather than objectives [22][23]. Group 2: Impending U.S. Military Actions - Trump is pressured to continue military actions to satisfy allies and domestic supporters, with the upcoming island seizure operation seen as a necessary demonstration of U.S. resolve [27][28]. - U.S. military deployments in the region are substantial, with significant forces already in place, indicating that the island seizure operation is imminent [30][31]. - The outcome of the island seizure will be pivotal for the Middle East conflict, potentially leading to either a de-escalation or further escalation depending on its success or failure [33][34]. Group 3: Recommendations for Retail Investors - Investors are advised to abandon the TACO trade mentality and avoid betting on Trump's retreat, as the market is unlikely to rebound quickly as it has in the past [36][37]. - Key timeframes to monitor include the execution of the island seizure and Iran's response, with a focus on risk aversion in the short term [39][40]. - Position sizes should be controlled, with recommendations to maintain a cash reserve and avoid high-risk strategies during this volatile period [46][47]. - After the island seizure, if Iran's response is limited, investors may consider buying undervalued tech and consumer stocks, while a more aggressive Iranian response may lead to further market declines [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical pricing in the second quarter of the stock index has changed from chaos to clarity. The Middle - East situation is becoming more complex, and the war situation will affect the fundamentals of equity assets. It is expected that the US and Iran will go through a process of "war expansion - negotiation and compromise" in the second quarter. A - shares may experience a V - shaped trend in the second quarter. In the short term, the A - share bull market is tested, but in the medium term, the technology industry represented by artificial intelligence is still the main line of the A - share bull market. It is recommended to go long on the IM futures with higher technology content on dips [92] - High oil prices will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs, and have an impact on China's imports and exports, inflation, and economic growth. The PPI and CPI are expected to rise, and the global economic growth is predicted to decline [21][53][67] - The Chinese government is taking measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic structural adjustment, such as increasing investment in infrastructure and adjusting policies on consumption and investment [79] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 China - Iran and China - Persian Gulf Seven - Country Trade - Iran's direct trade volume with China is small, with a trade surplus of less than $4 billion. After the US sanctions in 2018, the direct trade between China and Iran decreased [5] - China's exports to the eight countries including Iran and the seven Persian - Gulf countries have been increasing in the past five years. In 2025, the total export amount to the eight countries was $169.27 billion, accounting for 4.3%. China's imports from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounted for 6.1% of the total imports, and the trade deficit turned positive in 2025, reaching $5.7 billion [6][16] - If trade with the seven Persian - Gulf countries is interrupted, China's exports will decrease by 4.3% and imports by 6.1%. China's import dependence on these countries is mainly concentrated in crude oil, natural gas, chemical raw materials, and plastic products, and some products have a share of over 20%. The export of carpets, textiles, motor vehicles, steel products, and electromechanical products may be damaged [25][29] 3.2 Energy and Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China. About 200 - 210 million barrels of crude oil pass through it every day, accounting for about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The liquefied natural gas transportation accounts for about 20% of the world, and the methanol transportation accounts for about 35% of the world. The closure of the strait will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs [21] - Crude oil accounts for 18.2% of China's total energy consumption, and the external dependence is about 72%. The crude oil imported from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounts for about 40% of the total imported crude oil. China's oil reserves can support about 100 days. If the war persists and the strait is blocked, it will impact the economic growth [34] - Before the US - Iran war, the global equity assets were in a bull market. After the war, the global risk assets were under pressure, and the stock markets generally declined. In March, only the energy and mineral sectors rose, while the technology stocks and HALO assets fell significantly [38][46] 3.3 A - share Market Performance - In March, A - shares fell in line with the global stock markets. The rising sectors include energy (coal, power utilities, and new energy), defense (banks, public utilities), and AI infrastructure (communications). The falling sectors are mainly HALO heavy - hitters such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, concept stocks such as military industry, and technology stocks such as media and computer [49] - At the tertiary industry level, coal chemical industry, lithium batteries, new energy power generation, and optical communications performed well [50] 3.4 Inflation and Economic Growth - The increase in oil prices has led to an unexpected rise in PPI and CPI. In March, the PPI is expected to approach 0 year - on - year, turn positive in the second quarter, and the annual central level will rise to about 0.5%, 1.5% higher than the initial forecast. The CPI is expected to rise to about 1%, 1% higher than the initial forecast [60] - China's exports increased significantly in the first two months, but the impact of the US - Israel - Iran conflict on the global economy will be apparent from the second quarter. The OECD estimated in March that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters of this year will decline by 0.12, 0.23, 0.31, and 0.33 percentage points respectively compared with the February forecast [67] - China's economic growth is more dependent on foreign trade, and domestic demand is weak. The fiscal stimulus in 2026 is limited, and the incremental content is mainly in policy - based financial instruments and special funds for expanding domestic demand [72] 3.5 Policy and Industry Development - The government's work report in 2026 emphasizes building a strong domestic market, with a re - balance between consumption and investment, and an increase in support for fixed - asset investment. The positions of rural revitalization, new urbanization, and improving people's livelihood are advanced [79][80] - The National Development and Reform Commission will invest more than 7 trillion yuan in "six networks" and key areas this year, and the scale of artificial - intelligence - related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Ministry of Commerce focuses on service consumption, the central bank focuses on supporting domestic demand, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises, and the Ministry of Finance provides loan interest subsidies for individuals and enterprises [84] - Although the valuation of technology stocks is still high, their structure is relatively healthy after the profit upward revision and valuation downward revision in the fourth quarter of last year. The non - technology stocks have relatively mild changes in valuation and profit. The policy support for the technology industry is obvious [91]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of March 27, the market showed deepening divergences after the brief "TACO" trading, with oil and the dollar declining while U.S. stocks opened higher but gradually retracted gains[3] - Canadian and European stock indices saw gains, while Asian markets remained under pressure due to energy supply chain risks[3] - U.S. tech stocks experienced valuation corrections due to rising real interest rates, with the Nasdaq down 3.23% and the S&P 500 down 2.12%[15] Group 2: Economic Policies and Risks - The U.S. inflation rate is expected to rise, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by 55.3% from $72.48 per barrel on February 27 to $112.57 per barrel[7] - U.S. gasoline prices rose to $3.79 per gallon, a 31.3% increase from $2.88 per gallon on March 2[5] - The market has pushed back the next Federal Reserve rate cut expectation to December 2027, with a potential rate hike of about 0.2 times before the end of 2026[4] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S.-Iran situation remains tense, with Trump delaying military action and indicating ongoing negotiations, but significant differences in demands persist[5] - The U.S. has submitted a "15-point plan" to Iran, which includes demands for dismantling nuclear facilities, while Iran has countered with five essential demands[5] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely limited commercial shipping, with only about 1 vessel per day passing through compared to a historical average of 138 vessels[5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with oil prices rebounding after initial declines, while gold prices fell due to rising real interest rates[21] - The dollar strengthened after the "TACO" failure, with the dollar index rising 0.67% to 100.17, while most non-U.S. currencies depreciated[23] - Agricultural prices are under upward pressure due to ongoing fertilizer supply chain disruptions, with soybeans and corn prices declining slightly, while wheat prices increased by 1.7%[21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential return of the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out) in the context of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting that Wall Street analysts are sensing a shift in market dynamics as President Trump delays military action against Iran to facilitate negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Wall Street analysts perceive a typical "TACO" dynamic where Trump signals escalation but retreats when faced with economic consequences, indicating a desire to end the conflict despite unclear paths to peace [1][3]. - Following Trump's announcement of delaying attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities due to "productive" negotiations, the S&P 500 index saw a rebound, reflecting market optimism [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article highlights that Wall Street is familiar with Trump's TACO strategy, referencing a previous instance in April when Trump announced tariffs, leading to market declines, followed by a pause in the plan that resulted in a significant market rebound, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 37% by the end of the year [3]. Group 3: Analytical Tools - Analysts have developed tools like the "Trump Pain Point Index" to predict potential policy shifts, which tracks various economic indicators and the president's approval ratings [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Despite the TACO strategy, there are doubts about whether Trump's unilateral actions can stabilize the market, as the reversal of the index ultimately depends on Iran's willingness to engage [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation between the US and Iran still dominates market trading through changes in long - term expectations. Trump's latest statement triggered TACO trading, driving the overnight US stocks and various risk assets to rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index is gradually entering a high - cost - performance range, and it is necessary to continuously monitor the volume cooperation and closely track the marginal changes of geopolitical events for position management [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Macroeconomic events include President Xi Jinping's inspection in Xiongan New Area and emphasizing its function as the central bearing place for relocating non - capital functions from Beijing. Geopolitically, Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed agreement points, with a 5 - day suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities, but Iran denied having talks with the US [1] - In the spot market, A - share major indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.63% to 3813.28 points and the ChiNext Index down 3.49%. Only the coal and petroleum and petrochemical industries closed up, while social services, beauty care, and agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries led the decline. The market turnover on that day was 2.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices rose across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.38% to 46208.47 points [1] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The current US - Iran situation affects market trading through long - term expectations. Trump's statement spurred risk - asset rebounds. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a high - value range, and attention should be paid to trading volume and geopolitical changes for position management [2] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][9][7] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 23, 2026, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all declined, with the CSI 1000 Index having the largest decline of 4.81% [12] - There are also charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased on the day. For example, the trading volume of IF contracts increased by 16389 to 156918, and the open interest increased by 15821 to 276923 [16] - There are charts on the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for each contract, as well as charts and tables on the basis and inter - period spreads of stock index futures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global financial markets, particularly focusing on the impact of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, and the potential for negotiations (referred to as TACO) to influence market movements [5][18][33]. Group 1: Market Movements - Significant trades were observed, including a $1.5 billion purchase of S&P 500 futures and a short position of 6,200 oil futures valued at $580 million, leading to rapid market fluctuations [5][6]. - The S&P 500 futures index experienced a sudden increase of 3 points, while oil prices dropped sharply by over 10% [6][10]. - The article suggests that these market movements may be linked to the actions of prominent traders and their strategies [9][14]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The article highlights the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, with recent claims of productive dialogue from President Trump, which may have temporarily eased market fears [18][20]. - Despite claims of negotiations, there is skepticism regarding the effectiveness of these talks, as Iran has denied any substantial discussions with the US [20][21]. - The article emphasizes that the situation remains fluid, with both sides likely to continue tactical exchanges without reaching a consensus [29][32]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market environment is characterized by volatility, and investors are advised to avoid making unilateral bets on either bullish or bearish positions [40]. - The article suggests that certain asset classes, particularly upstream resource stocks, are highly sensitive to the geopolitical narrative and should be monitored closely [42]. - Companies with strong independent performance metrics, unaffected by geopolitical tensions, are recommended as potential investment opportunities during market panic [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The core pricing lines of the global market in 2026 are as follows: Overseas, the "Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)" balance between the US and Iran restricts the escalation of the conflict, but the secondary inflation risk from oil prices is reversing the global liquidity expectations, and the Fed's policy path is becoming more divergent. Domestically, Chinese assets have a triple safety premium, but the A-share market is still in a risk release stage. The core investment strategy in 2026 is "defense and counterattack" [2]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: News drives the market. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The situation in the US - Iran conflict is complex, with Trump claiming progress in negotiations while Iran denying it [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Trump's claim of progress in US - Iran dialogue led to a drop in the US dollar index, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [3]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell due to liquidity shocks and geopolitical uncertainties. With the easing signal of the Middle East situation, the stock index may rebound, but the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the sharp fall of the A - share market, the bond market may rebound. It is recommended to use grid operations, sell high - position long orders in a timely manner, and gradually build long positions if the price continues to fall [6]. - **Container Shipping (Europe Line)**: The futures market is in a high - level volatile state, with a game between geopolitical emotions and the off - season fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [7][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. In the medium and long term, the demand for lithium carbonate in downstream industries still has a strong support [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: It is affected by the callback cycle of the non - ferrous metal sector. In the long run, the demand for these two products will improve as the photovoltaic industry develops [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, the copper price rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds. If it fails to break through with heavy volume, the market may be volatile [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It was affected by systematic risks and rebounded slightly at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term due to inventory and macro factors [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed certain resilience. The supply of sulfur in the nickel industry chain is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is a game between supply and macro - level factors [21][22]. - **Tin**: It followed the sector down and rebounded at night. It is expected to be weak in the short term and the long - term center of gravity may move upward [23]. - **Lead**: It oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation under the pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [24]. Oils and Fats & Feed - **Oilseeds**: The relaxation of Brazil's quarantine process affected the market. It is recommended to enter the market for reverse arbitrage between monthly spreads [25][26]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils fluctuated with crude oil. It is necessary to focus on the biofuel policies of Indonesia and the US this week [27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply due to Trump's remarks. The negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 [29][30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was dragged down by weak demand. The market's strength slowed down, but the price decline space is limited [32]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core factors. The supply of asphalt is reduced, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to combination strategies [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They continued to decline under pressure. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view on precious metals, and pay attention to position control [35][36][37]. - **Gold & Silver**: They had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended to maintain a strategic long - position view, and they may oscillate at a low level in the short term [38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price rose, and the market is expected to be neutral in the short term. Both pulp and offset paper futures can maintain interval trading [41][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market fluctuated due to the changeable attitude of the US. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the geopolitical situation is uncertain [43][44]. - **LPG**: The futures price rose sharply due to capital emotions. The market is expected to return to the fundamental logic, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [45][46][47]. - **Methanol**: The price was affected by the Iran - US situation. It is recommended to conduct a 5 - 6 reverse arbitrage and a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. - **PP & Propylene**: The night - session price fell due to the news of US - Iran negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51][52]. - **Plastic**: The night - session price fell with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54][55]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber fluctuated greatly, and natural rubber rose slightly. Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to oscillate and stabilize [61][62]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a high supply pressure, and glass is restricted by supply recovery expectations and high intermediate inventories [63][64][65]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of raw materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upward space. The short - term price may rebound, but the height is limited [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported in the short term but is under pressure in the medium and long term [68][69]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increase is mainly due to market expectations. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - selling near - month contracts lightly if the price rises to a certain range [70]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are supported by cost and oscillate strongly. The impact of the hurricane on manganese ore production areas needs attention [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [73]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has support below. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation of US cotton [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The short - term sugar price may maintain an oscillatory pattern [76][77]. - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded. It is recommended to sell the call options of the main contract [78]. - **Apples**: The futures market is driven by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern [85][86]. - **Peanuts**: The futures price may fall if the Middle East situation eases. It is recommended to short lightly [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The price may oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand [89]. - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory is consumed. It is recommended to hold long positions in the early stage, reduce long - position holdings, and use interval trading and short - term short - selling strategies [90][91].

Sector Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international crude oil price remained strong due to the continued fermentation of the US-Iran conflict. The vegetable oil sector strengthened again, and the palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts generally increased. For the double - meal market, it showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [1][2][3] - In the short term, the soybean meal futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2950 - 3050 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal is mostly in the range of 3200 - 3450 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of rapeseed meal in the spot market is light, and the price fluctuates with the market [3] - The price of palm oil is under short - term pressure but is still supported by the middle track of the Bollinger Bands in the medium term. New long positions can be re - entered. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are highly volatile at high levels and mainly follow the trend of palm oil [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Market Review - On March 23, the US - Iran conflict continued to ferment. The international crude oil was still strong, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened again. The main contract Y2605 of soybean oil closed at 8740 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day's closing price, with an increase of 18,176 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract Y2609 closed at 8666 yuan/ton, up 1.38%, with an increase of 17,960 lots in open interest. The main contract P2605 of palm oil closed at 9942 yuan/ton, up 2.31%, with a decrease of 1698 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract P2609 closed at 9880 yuan/ton, up 2.38%, with an increase of 18,428 lots in open interest. The main contract OI2605 of rapeseed oil closed at 9950 yuan/ton, up 0.75%, with an increase of 2276 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract OI2609 closed at 9831 yuan/ton, up 0.90%, with an increase of 2774 lots in open interest [1] Important Information - On Monday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures tumbled more than 10%. The May crude oil futures contract fell $10.10, and the settlement price was $88.13 per barrel [1][2][3] - A study on March 20 showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate [1] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) called on the government to allow more biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war [1] - The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported on March 19 that the La Nina phenomenon is still continuing. It is expected to turn into an ENSO neutral state next month, and it is likely to remain in a neutral state from May to July 2026. The El Nino phenomenon may form from June to August 2026 and last until the end of 2026 [1] - The Malaysian MPOB report showed that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons compared with the previous month; the production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons month - on - month, and the exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons month - on - month [1] - The shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 were 443,812 tons, an increase of 12.7% compared with 393,853 tons from February 1 - 15 [2] - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0348 million tons, a weekly decrease of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31% [2] Market Logic - In the external market, there was a TACO trade, and the international crude oil price plummeted by more than 12% during the session, but the subsequent decline narrowed. The US soybean oil remained volatile at a high level. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to open lower and move higher. The high - level operation of crude oil provides a basis for the implementation of the biodiesel policy. The Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a 20% blending ratio, which is beneficial to soybean crushing. In the domestic market, the vegetable oil is in the traditional off - season of consumption, but the seasonal shutdown of oil mills supports the soybean oil futures. The palm oil is boosted by the rise of international crude oil. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil continues to rise in a narrow - range shock. Whether the US biodiesel policy is implemented this week will affect whether the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures price can break through the pressure of 10,000 yuan. Otherwise, it will maintain a wide - range shock [2] Trading Strategy - For long - term investors, the price decline caused by the TACO event is a new buying opportunity for vegetable oils. They should maintain a bullish view in the long - term and buy on dips. The pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 9300, and the support level is 8048; the pressure level of the Y2609 contract is 9700, and the support level is 8054; the pressure level of the P2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8776; the pressure level of the P2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 8710; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9212; the pressure level of the OI2609 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9180 [2] Double - Meal Market Market Review - On March 23, the domestic double - meal continued the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The main contract M2605 of soybean meal closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day's closing price, with a decrease of 66,806 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract M2609 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, down 0.16%, with an increase of 45,750 lots in open interest. The main contract RM2605 of rapeseed meal closed at 2399 yuan/ton, down 0.99%, with an increase of 7656 lots in open interest. The sub - main contract RM2609 closed at 2455 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, with a decrease of 7387 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - The Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest rate has reached 65.79%, lagging behind 73.84% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 66.96% [3] - Chinese and US economic officials held a "very stable" meeting on agricultural trade issues in Paris on the 15th. China still promised to buy 25 million tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years [3] - As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.4328 million tons, a decrease of 388,700 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 672,600 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 7.88%. The contract volume was 4.5078 million tons, a decrease of 374,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 24,000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. The contract volume was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.89% [3] Market Logic - In the external market, the US announced to stop the military strike against Iran for 5 days, and the international soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The soybean meal was affected by the news that China Customs relaxed the regulations on weeds in Brazilian soybean cargoes and broke through the 3000 - yuan mark during the session. However, the Brazilian premium was firm, and the position transfer by institutions and the downstream price - fixing orders limited the decline. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is expected to operate in the range of 2950 - 3050 yuan/ton. In the domestic spot market, the one - price of oil mills decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton with the market, and the near - term basis remained stable. The traditional shutdown season is coming, and some low - inventory enterprises have replenishment needs. However, the Brazilian shipments are gradually recovering, and traders are cautious about the tight supply in April. The spot price of soybean meal is mostly in the range of 3200 - 3450 yuan/ton. For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture season has not arrived, the market trading volume is light, and the spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis quotation is adjusted in a narrow range [3] Trading Strategy - Differentiated operations for the near - term and far - term contracts of double - meal: short the near - term contracts and long the far - term contracts. The pressure level of the M2605 contract is 3278, and the support level is 2710; the pressure level of the M2607 contract is 3000, and the support level is 2680; the pressure level of the M2509 contract is 3200, and the support level is 2833; the pressure level of the RM2605 contract is 2600, and the support level is 2220; the pressure level of the RM2607 contract is 2560, and the support level is 2200; the pressure level of the RM2609 contract is 2600, and the support level is 2274 [3]